NBA DFS Picks and Pivots Wednesday, January 30
Welcome to the Wednesday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy basketball line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Tuesday’s NBA DFS slate was all about the stars and a real strong mid-tier as we saw James Harden, Russell Westbrook and Giannis Antetokounmpo put up the top three fantasy performances and when mixed and matched with a strong mid-tier that went for 50+, including D’Angelo Russell, Devin Booker, Jrue Holiday and LaMarcus Aldridge.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Wednesday Slate Overview:
I was sick yesterday, I took NyQuil and passed out around 7PM and woke up this morning feeling better but a bit groggy. I did what I always do, I opened the slate, grabbed some coffee and started to take a first look at how we could attack tonight – I immediately felt worse and went back to bed.
You see, tonight’s Vegas data is screaming at us to stack up one game that has a 235 total, 8 points higher than any other game, and by far the fastest projected pace, over 8 possessions more than the next closest game – in fact, it is the only game on the slate that sees both teams getting a pace boost – so what exactly is the problem?
Well my friends, how do you feel about a chalk Kings/Hawks night?
Yes, the clear top Vegas game features the Sacramento Kings and Atlanta Hawks, a game only DFS players could love.
Now these teams faced once earlier this season, back on November 1, where the Kings dropped 146 points on their way to a 30 point victory with guys like De’Aaron Fox ($14.2K) going for 72 fantasy points while Buddy Hield ($13.6K) dropped 49 of his own. On the Hawks side, only one player Trae Young ($14.4K) managed to top 30 fantasy points as a result of the blowout.
I understand what the Vegas data is telling us, but if you stroll through the prices here for the players in this game they are all going to require 40-50 point games for their price points and as much as the pace boosts are enticing, these are not player I feel comfortable building around as core plays – especially if/when this game stack becomes chalk.
The obvious pivot becomes the Nuggets/Pelicans game – a spot with the second highest total at 227 with a ton of injury news that opens up value alongside the stars in this game.
With Anthony Davis out, Nikola Jokic ($19.5K) becomes the de-facto high dollar play against a short-handed Pelicans line-up that could be without Julius Randle again tonight, who alongside Nikola Mirotic and Elfrid Payton, missed last night’s game.
If you want to stack this game up, it is relatively easy to do so as you can lock in Jokic, with Will Barton ($12.3K) and run it back with Jrue Holiday ($16.2K) and Jahlil Okafor ($12.1K) and still have roughly $10K per player for the rest of your build.
With this 8 game slate, which starts at 7:30 PM EST by the way, having two pretty obvious game environments, my guess is that most of the chalk will lie in these two games which could make this a really intriguing tournament slate if you are willing to pivot off these spots. With 6 other games to get to, let’s explore our pivot plays.
NBA DFS – Pivot Plays:
With so much focus on the “late night hammer” in Sacramento, I wonder if the other late game in Portland/Utah will be over-looked tonight. There is nothing overly special about this game from a Vegas perspective – we have a solid 218 total, third highest on the slate, a 1 point spread and a neutral pace game environment.
However, what stands out to me is the price points on the star players in this game – guys like Damian Lillard, Donovan Mitchell, Jusuf Nurkic and Ruby Gobert who are all priced in the $14-$15K – similar price points to the guys we mentioned in the Kings/Hawks game.
Just think about it for a second – if you took out the sexy Vegas totals and I told you, that you could have Trae Young or De’Aaron Fox or spend $1K more per player and get Damian Lillard and Donovan Mitchell, wouldn’t you take Dame and Mitchell every time?
This is a spot where I am looking to play the talent over the game environment and I think a game stack of this solid total/close spread is a great way to differentiate yourself tonight.
Lillard ($15.4K) has not had the gaudy fantasy numbers this year, but this is still a player with an elite usage rate (32.5% over the last two weeks) who has flashed 50-60 point fantasy upside recent (60 against OKC) and has had success in this match-up, going for 57 and 65 fantasy points in two of the last seven games against Utah with 48 fantasy points when they faced off just a few games ago on January 21. In that game, Jusuf Nurkic ($15K) dominated the interior with 22 points, 8 rebounds, 7 assists and 6 blocks on his way to 54 fantasy points.
On the other side of that game, Donovan Mitchell ($15.5K) dropped 54 fantasy points and has gone for 54 fantasy points or more in three of his last four games. Rudy Gobert ($14.8K) meanwhile has gone for 50+ fantasy points in five of his last eight games.
This is what I find appealing about this game – you have multiple players with 50+ fantasy point ability and the price points are reasonable enough where you can stack them without much of a problem.
NBA DFS – Pivots and Values:
The Hornets/Celtics game does not yet have a line as we await official news on the status of Kyrie Irving who looks unlikely to suit up again tonight for Boston with a hip injury but this could be another game where we take advantage of some elite plays and reduced price points.
Kemba Walker ($14.9K) sits at a similar price point to Damian Lillard and the popular options in the Hawks/Kings game and while attacking Boston is not usually something we want to do, this is a match-up Kemba as had success in this year. In their first meeting this season in Charlotte, Kemba put up 59 fantasy points on the back of 43 points and 7 three-pointers made. Again, you can easily make the case to stack up Kemba/Dame/Mitchell and play the talent level at price points that feel entirely too cheap and if folks will play the Hawks/Kings guys at similar prices, then these are tremendous pivots with every bit the ceiling and arguably a higher floor.
With Kyrie likely out again tonight, we can go right back to all the usual Celtics value who are priced reasonably considering the usage that opens up with their star sidelined. Terry Rozier ($11.9K), is priced up but there is still ample profit even at this price as we know he will get all the run he can handle.
Some interesting notes from the last game against Brooklyn where Kyrie was out – it was Jaylen Brown ($9.2K) who actually led the team in FGA with 16 and has 33 fantasy points in two of his last three games. Aron Baynes ($7.5K) actually led the team in usage with a 29.5% mark and put up 1.47 FP/M against Brooklyn in 21 minutes off the bench.
Speaking of value, with Tyreke Evans AND Victor Oladipo both out, it was Edmond Sumner ($7.5K) who drew the start for the Pacers, and although he struggled, this is a nice bounce back value spot against the Wizards. Sumner played 28 minutes, hitting only 1-10 from the floor against Golden State and if he is going to see that kinda of run and volume, I think we can absolutely roll him out again tonight.
Sample Lineup and NBA DFS Slate Overview:
Please note – this sample lineup is meant to be illustrative only and should not be used as a plug and play lineup.
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G: Donovan Mitchell
G: Damian Lillard
G: Kemba Walker
F/C: Jusuf Nurkic
F/C: Rudy Gobert
F/C: Jaylen Brown
UTIL: Moe Harkless
UTIL: Edmond Sumner
Slate Overview: This is setting up to be a really nice GPP slate as I think there is some very clear chalk in the Hawks/Kings and pivots in Pelicans/Nuggets which makes any pivot off those games a contrarian strategy. The Portland/Utah game is my favorite game stack spot as I think we have a solid total at 218 with a close spread which means the starters in this game should see significant run in a game I think gets totally over-looked.
dark. Next. FanDuel NBA DFS Slate Overview - January 30
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