NBA Draftkings: Top Salary Value Plays – Too Good To Be Jrue
By Shaun Evans
Welcome back you guys to another edition of the “Top Salary Value Plays” for NBA Draftkings! Tonight we have an 8 game slate but we’re coming off a nice Tuesday slate where James Harden proved that he still can’t be faded. Plus, Paul George is making it a debate now to choose between him or Russell Wilsons as the “Do Not Fade” play on the Oklahoma City Thunder. Now lets dive in to this slate and see what value plays we can find to match that salary price tag.
NBA Draftkings – The Breakdown
So as usually, with any NBA Draftkings slate, we’re going to look at a players stats, usage rate, previous game stats, the opposing teams defensive stats versus the players position, and their salary. A big part of daily fantasy sports is a players salary. We build our lineups around key players and if they are players like Lebron James, James Harden, Russell Westbrook, or even Paul George, then they come along with a hefty price tag. We need a player to hit at least five times their value with their salary to make it “worth it” in a sense but what we really want and need is for it to be around six or possibly even seven times their value.
For example, the other night Paul George was priced at $9,600 versus the New Orleans Pelicans so we needed him to hit 48 fantasy points to return five times his value. Sure enough, Paul George returned value and exceeded it by scoring 54.8. This is why we’re switching up the article format and trying to dig even deeper with our NBA Slates.
Now we might not always have multiple players (minimum two) discussed at every position on every article because the NBA has the weirdest schedule this season.
As a special thank you to our Fantasy CPR readers, we have a $50 Free Roll tonight on FantasyDraft. You can access the free roll link here!
Lets not waste any more time and kick off the research for this 8 game NBA Draftkings Slate. As always though, I will be sticking with Draftkings as I rarely play on Fanduel anymore. Good luck and lets cash out!
NBA Draftkings – Top Tier
Jrue Holiday vs. Denver Nuggets
Salary: $8,900 – Needs to score 44.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value
Jrue Holiday is on another level currently, especially with Anthony Davis out and requesting a trade from the New Orleans Pelicans. It’s basically Jrue’s team now. He’s currently averaging 21 points, 8 assist and 5 rebounds per game with a 25% usage rate. Without Anthony Davis though, he has a usage rate of 26%. He gets to face a Denver Nuggets defense that is allowing opposing point guards to average 18 points, 8 assist, and 6 rebounds per game.
Holiday is averaging 44 fantasy points per game and 1.22 fantasy points per minute. He has also returned value in his five last games, scoring 47.8, 45.8, 63.3, 45.3, and 51.5 fantasy points. He has the ability to return value very easily without Anthony Davis being on the court, making him a nice start to building a line-up.
Other Top Tier Option
D’Aaron Fox vs. Atlanta Hawks
Salary: $7,700 – Needs to score 38.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value
The first Sacramento Kings player up tonight is D’Aaron Fox who isa veraging 17 points, 7 assist, and 4 rebounds per game. He has a usage rate of 25% on the season also. Fox gets to face a fast paced Atlanta Hawks team that is currently allowing point guards to average 23 points, 9 assist and 7 rebounds per game. The two teams have yet to face off this season though, so we are in store for something new. Fox is also averaging 36.9 fantasy points per game and 1.19 fantasy points per minute. If you aren’t looking to play Jrue Holiday versus the tough Denver Nuggets, Fox is the next point guard to go with.
Low Tier Option
Jerryd Bayless vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Salary: $5,000 – Needs to score 25 fantasy points or more to exceed value
Jerryd Bayless has stepped up pretty nicely for the Minnesota Timberwolves and gets a nice match-up tonight versus the Memphis Grizzlies. Bayless has recorded four straight games of exceeding value, scoring 35.5, 33.5, 32.5, and 31.8 fantasy points. He has a usage rate of 19% and is averaging 1.6 fantasy points per minute since stepping in to a 20+ minute role. He has a very low ceiling tonight and could easily be paired with either Jrue Holiday or D’Aaron Fox.
NBA Draftkings – Top Tier
Buddy Hield vs. Atlanta Hawks
Salary: $7,200 – Needs to score 36 fantasy points or more to exceed value
Stacking this Atlanta Hawks and Sacramento Kings game may be the route that I go honestly. Buddy Hield comes in as a top shooting guard tonight, averaging 20 points, 5 rebounds, and 2 assist per game with a usage rate of 24%. He’s averaging 32.4 fantasy points per game and 1.04 fantasy points per minute. He gets to face a fast paced Atlanta Hawks team that is allowing shooting guards to average 24 points, 6 rebounds and 5 assist per game.
Hield has only returned value twice in his past five games though, scoring 40.8 and 55.8 fantasy points. Plus the Kings are coming off of a nice rest so we don’t have to worry about the scary back to back stat with them tonight. Pitting the two fastest paced teams in NBA against each other will make it a great match-up for Buddy Hield.
Other Top Tier Option
Zach LaVine vs. Miami Heat
Salary: $7,100 – Needs to score 35.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value
I almost forgot about Zach LaVine this season and have rarely seen a match-up with him that I like. LaVine is coming off of a decent performance versus the Cleveland Cavaliers but gets to face the Miami Heat tonight. LaVine is currently averaging 23 points, 4 rebounds and 4 assist with a usage rate of 31%. The Miami Heat are allowing opposing shooting guards to average 22 points, 6 rebounds and 4 assist. LaVine should be able to hop back on track tonight even with the Chicago Bulls blowing up their entire roster to prepare for next season.
Low Tier Option
Dwayne Wade vs. Chicago Bulls
Salary: $5,200 – Needs to score 26 fantasy points or more to exceed value
Now Dwayne Wade has a questionable tag so if you want to use him versus his hometown team, Chicago Bulls (also a narrative we can like), then be cautious. Wade is averaging 14 points, 4 assist and 3 rebounds per game with a usage rate of 26% this season. Plus with it being his last season, Miami isn’t pushing him to be on the court as much. He does get to face a Chicago Bulls defense that is allowing opposing shooting guards to average 23 points, 7 rebounds and 4 assist per game. Dwayne Wade is coming off of a nice performance against the New York Knicks so if he does play tonight, he should be ready to continue that streak.
NBA Draftkings – Top Tier
Luka Doncic vs. New York Knicks
Salary: $8,800 – Needs to score 44 fantasy points or more to exceed value
Coming off of two strong performances, Luka Doncic has a great match-un versus the New York Knicks. Doncic is averaging 20 points, 7 rebounds, and 5 assist per game with a usage rate of 28%. He’s averaging 40 fantasy points per game and 1.25 fantasy points per minute. He has scored 59.5 and 69.5 fantasy points in his previous two games and has returned value in three of his last five games.
Doncic is facing a New York Knicks team that is allowing opposing small forwards to average 20 points, 8 rebounds, and 4 assist per game. In the teams first meeting on November 2nd, Doncic recored 18 points, 9 rebounds and 6 assist. Luka Doncic has only gotten better since then and he could easily dominate tonight.
Other Top Tier
Will Barton vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Salary: $6,800 – Needs to score 34 fantasy points or more to exceed value
Since returning from injury, Will Barton has had his ups and downs in being consistent. He is currently averaging 13 points, 5 rebounds, and 3 assist with a usage rate of 22%. He gets to face a struggling and injured fill Pelicans team that is allowing opposing small forwards to average 24 points, 8 rebounds, and 4 assist per game. He does have a ceiling which could make tonight hard to reach but he should be able to do so. Last stat is that Barton has only returned value only once in his past five games.
Low Tier Option
Jae Crowder vs. Portland Trailblazers
Salary: $4,700 – Needs to score 23.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value
Now Jae Crowder has a very low salary price tag but also a low ceiling with 23.5 fantasy points. He has reached value though twice in the past five games, scoring 30.3 and 25.3 fantasy points. He’s averaging 12 points, 5 rebounds, and 2 assist with a usage rate of 19%. He gets to face a Portland Trailblazers defense that is allowing opposing small forwards to average 22 points, 7 rebounds, and 4 assist.
NBA Draftkings – Top Tier
John Collins vs. Sacramento Kings
Salary: $7,900 – Needs to score 39.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value
John Collins gets a slight price deduction in a game that will have a pretty fast pace due to the Hawks and Kings playing at the highest in the NBA. Collins is averaging 19 points, 10 rebounds, and 2 assist per game with a usage rate 23%. He’s averaging 37 fantasy points per game and 1.23 fantasy points per minute. Collins gets to face a Sacramento Kings defense that is allowing power forwards to average 23 points, 10 rebounds, and 3 assist per game.
Like I said, these two teams will be playing at a fast pace which could benefit Collins pretty well. These two teams have yet to face off this season so it should be an exciting one to witness. The one downside is that John Collins has only returned value once in the past five games where he scored 53 fantasy points.
Other Top Tier Option
Lauri Markkanen vs. Miami Heats
Salary: $6,700 – Needs to score 33.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value
The Chicago Bulls are a struggling team that we think is probably tanking but that still doesn’t stop it from allowing Lauri Markkanen to have a good match-up. Markkanen is averaging 17 points and 7 rebounds per game with a usage rate of 24%. He’s averaging 32 fantasy points per game and 1 fantasy point per minute. In his previous five games, Markkanen has returned value four times, scoring 46.8, 33.8, 33.5 and 38.3 fantasy points. This Miami Heat team is allowing opposing power forwards to average 23 points, 11 rebounds, and 3 assist per game. Markkanen is a great secondary option for the power forward position tonight.
Low Tier Option
Marvin Bagley III vs. Atlanta Hawks
Salary: $5,400 – Needs to score 27 fantasy points or more to exceed value
Marvin Bagley III has had a great month in January so why stop tonight when he gets to face a fast paced team. Bagley is at a usage rate of 22% while average 13 points and 6 rebounds per game while averaging 23 minutes per game. He is currently averaging 24.7 fantasy points per game and 1.07 fantasy points per minute. This Atlanta Hawks are allowing opposing power forward to average 23 points, 11 rebounds, and 4 assist per game. As a salary relief option, Marvin Bagley III could be a great play in this match-up.
NBA Draftkings – Top Tier
Jusuf Nurkic vs. Utah Jazz
Salary: $8,300 – Needs to score 41.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value
We have a pretty deep depth at Center tonight but we’re about to make Jusuf Nurkic the top value play tonight with his match-up versus the Utah Jazz. Nurkic is currently averaging 15 points, 10 rebounds, and 3 assist per game with a usage rate of 24%. He’s averaging 37.9 fantasy points per game and 1.4 fantasy points per minute. He does get to face the Utah Jazz who are allowing centers to average 22 points, 14 rebounds, and 4 assist per game.
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Jusuf Nurkic doesn’t have a high price and he has a low ceiling of just 41.5 fantasy points. He has returned value in three of his last five games, scoring 47.3, 54, and 42 fantasy points. In their most recent match-up on the 21st, Nurkic recored 22 points, 8 rebounds and 7 assist. If we get a similar performance and possibly even better, Nurkic will be a great value play tonight.
Other Top Tier Option
Al Horford vs. Charlotte Hornets
Salary: $7,000 – Needs to score 35 fantasy points or more to exceed value
We can still consider Al Horford a pretty risky play but he manages to get points in some of the most random stat categories but he still has a low ceiling for being on a nice consistent streak. Horford has scored 40+ fantasy points in his past three games. On the season, he’s averaging 12 points, 7 rebounds, and 3 assist per game with a usage rate of 18%. He gets to face the Hornets who are allowing opposing centers to average 23 points, 16 rebounds, and 3 assist per game. Horford is averaging 30.7 fantasy points per game and 1.1 fantasy points per minute. A slightly cheaper center but does come with some risk.
Low Tier Option
Alex Len vs. Sacramento Kings
Salary: $4,500 – Needs to score 22.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value
Now this is based on of Alex Len taking over in the fourth in his last game and now he gets to face the Sacramento Kings. The Kings are allowing centers to average 22 points, 19 rebounds, and 3 assist per game. Len has a usage rate of 22% this season while averaging 10 points, 6 rebounds, and a lonely 1 assist. Len is another center who has a pretty low ceiling tonight that may go slightly under-owned tonight.
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