NCAA Basketball Best Bets To Win – Wednesday January 30
By John Fazio
Good day and greetings from your NCAA basketball best bets to win host and value gambler. We’ve got a rather large Wednesday schedule so let’s see where we can find strong advantages.
For those seeing this for the first time, I will be giving NCAA basketball best bets for the upcoming days games having written this article the night before. The lines I quote are the live lines at the time of writing, and if the line mentioned here is significantly worse for you then consider it a no bet.
Lines are very important and are the key to my value plays. On average, 1 out of every 14 games that move at least 1 1/2 points from the opening number will land (the final score will be within the line move) so we want to make sure to get the proper number.
Some lines will be better than you see on here from the night before, some the same and some worse. Disregard any play that is significantly off the number listed, has an unexpected injury, or any other factor not known before the day of the game that would negatively impact our play. I am playing these games also and will tweet when I can find anything important.
Yesterday, Tuesday, we went 6-2-1 on our plays and we are now 26-17-1 overall.
Analysis of every game consists of the number I make the game, which I call the raw number, and the associated trends within the game including and especially how the teams are currently playing.
Sometimes you will see a stat saying team X has covered 8/10, then upon examination you see that team lost the last 2 in a row. Stats can be a trap so I filter them out for you.
Having said that, let’s get to our NCAA basketball best bets. I will be going thru these games in time order; if the strength of the play deviates from the standard unit it will be pointed out as the game is discussed. All times Eastern. Here we go:
NCAA Basketball Best Bets – Against The Grain
Marquette +3 1/2 over Butler, 6:30 pm
Butler has completely controlled this series, winning and covering the last 5 in a row and winning ATS 9/10. Normally with this much history these trends continue, but I am going the other way this time.
I make this game Marquette 3 and the recent play would indicate they should continue to win. Marquette has won and covered their last 7 in a row while Butler has dropped their last 2 ATS by a combined total of 21 points.
In addition, Butler starter Sean McDermott is questionable and even if he plays will not be 100%. Let’s see if Marquette can finally break the jinx and win if not at least cover.
Fordham +3 over George Washington, 7 pm
This is rather odd for college baskets in that both teams are covering much more on the road recently. Fordham has covered their last 3 on the road while GW has lost its last 2 at home.
My number after adjusting for home court is a pick, so we are getting 3 points equity and with the propensity for the road teams to fare well I think we have the advantage taking the points.
Iowa State -12 over West Virginia, 7 pm
This is a game where all the stats point to Iowa State and in my opinion the linesmaker has not over-compensated in setting the line. In fact my number on the game is Iowa State by 20. Even more, this line opened 13 and has dropped to 12.
Iowa State has covered the last 3 games in the series, they have covered their last 4 games in a row while West Virginia has dropped 4/5 ATS. Iowa State is 9-1 straight up at home and West Virginia is 0-4 on the road. I’m looking straight forward on this and laying the favorite.
Louisville -9 1/2 over Wake Forest, 8 pm
Louisville is not afraid of road games, and in fact has covered their last 2 away affairs ATS by a combined total of a whopping 55 points. Wake Forest has been up and down, Having surprised NC State winning 71-67 at home as a 9 point dog but otherwise being lackluster.
My number is Louisville by 22 not adjusting for home court; it is difficult for me to price in any home court advantage because of Louisville’s strong play on the road. I think we have enough of an edge to lay the points.
NCAA Basketball Best Bets To Win – Drake To cover
Drake -4 over Illinois State, 8 pm
This line opened at 7 1/2 and has dropped all the way to 4 at Cris Sportsbook, but I think they look good to extend their cover streak to 7 in a row with an ATS win tonight. Illinois State has been up and down on the road, but I make the game 13 and as long as we are laying 5 or less we have a strong enough advantage.
Both teams sport positive records, with Illinois State at 12-9 and Drake at 16-5, but ISU is 1-6 straight up on the road while Drake is 9-1 straight up at home. A money line parlay on Drake to any other team listed in this article of your choice appears to be a very playable strategy as well.
Utah State -26 over San Jose State, 9 pm
Both teams show many losses to the line in recent play, but I give the edge to the favorite.
Utah State has lost their last 3 heavy favorite home games ATS, being favored between 17 and 19 points, by a combined total of 4 points. San Jose has lost their last 4 road games ATS by a combined total of 50 points.
Utah State has won and covered their last 4 home games in this series. In addition, my number on the game is 38. High spreads are sometimes tough to cover as the favorite substitutes reserves when they have the game in hand creating back door covers for the dog. But I think we have enough of an advantage in the spread versus the expectation to overcome this negative.
Washington -7 1/2 over USC, 11 pm
The Huskies are in the midst of a great run, having won and covered their last 7 in a row. USC conversely has dropped their last 3 away games straight up and ATS. This is more of a trend play, as my number is Washington by 11 which is positive but not enough for a recommendation on its own.
Next. FanDuel NBA Breakdown Jan 30. dark