Super Bowl Best Bets To Win – Super Sunday February 3rd

Good day and greetings from your Super Bowl best bets to win host and value gambler.  Today we’re going to analyze the big game and see what results look the best.

There are a number of ways to approach analyzing the Super Bowl, and so much information is out there to look over on such a high-profile game nobody can give out stats that are brand new.

I am going to analyze these stats in a slightly different way and dig a little deeper into what I believe are the most important factors to consider.  In order to do this, we need to first flip the script and stop thinking about how we see the game, but rather consider how the sportsbooks see the game.  After all, these are the guys we are trying to beat – and they are trying to beat us.

We need to understand what they are thinking; why the line is where it is now and how they intend to take our money.  All of us on both sides of the counter are after the other’s bankroll.  Without a full understanding of how the other side intends to do this, we really don’t completely understand our own position.

I like to use Cris Sportsbook (also known as Bookmaker) as my barometer.  They are one of the 2 largest books in the islands along with Pinnacle and these 2 are going to take the lion’s share of the offshore money.  So let’s go back to the beginning, back to where it all started, back to January 20th at 10:23 pm when the opening Super Bowl line at Cris was released and start from there.

Super Bowl Best Bets To Win – Not A Trap

Let’s talk thru this idea about a trap line, since this game opened as a pick and has slowly climbed to 2 1/2 with a vast majority of the wagers placed on the New England Patriots.  Here is my opinion on this line and the whole concept:

There is no such thing as a trap line!

The bookmaker is not putting out a line wanting the public to bet a certain way, because if that were true then two other conditions would have to be met.

Firstly, the books would have to know, not guess, know, who is going to win.  If they are trying to get the public to bet on New England and if they are intentionally setting a low line that will grab the public’s attention, then the books must know the Rams are going to win.  Here’s a hint about that idea…..

Nobody knows who’s going to win!

Secondly, even if we get beyond that impassable point of the first argument above, then in addition we would have to assume all bookmakers in the islands and sportsbook managers in Las Vegas and across the country all think the exact same way.  Good luck with that – it will never happen.

If say SouthPoint in Las Vegas liked the Patriots, then they would set their line higher to attract bets the other way than Bookmaker wants.  And believe me, everyone has different opinion on the game, a different idea of who and why that team will win.  They all only have 1 thing in common – nobody KNOWS which side will take down the victory.

So now we swing back in time to January 20 and Cris opens the Super Bowl line at New England Pick lay 20 (Rams pick even).  The people waiting by their computers all evening to pounce on the opening are the sharps – and they are jumping all over New England.  But why?  Sound like a crazy question?  Here’s why it’s not obvious.

The sharps are not making a statement on who will win; they are guessing the line is going higher on the Patriots.  They are, in this case, accurately guessing the public will drive the line higher and they are laying the favorite because they want to make a middle out of this game.

Super Bowl Best Bets To Win – It’s a numbers game

The early money wants to bet pick on New England because they believe the line will advance from there to 3, which statistically is a winner.  We call it a positive expectation.

I worked for a middling and scalping group for 15 years in Las Vegas and Lake Tahoe, and I can tell you, for the sharps it’s all about value and math.

Each number has a certain percent chance of landing, and in NFL football a pick to 3 is a solid winner.  That is why this line will have a difficult time making it to 3, currently locked in and striped across the betting screens at 2 1/2, even though a vast majority of wagers coming in, currently 78%, are on New England.

The books don’t want to give the players, especially the early birds who got the best line, Rams +3.  It’s a loser for them and that is why this line remains at 2 1/2.  It’s NOT because they want to trap the public into betting the Pats below that magic number of 3.

Let’s look at what happened after the initial pop at 10:23 pm by the sharps on New England.  At 10:24 the line goes to 1, at 10:25 it’s up to 1 1/2 and quickly at 10:26 it is already at 2.  At this point, 80% of the bets are on the Patriots.

Within another 7 minutes at 10:33 pm, 83% Patriot money now drives the line up to 2 1/2.  Then it starts getting interesting.  As middlers, we are constantly aware of the number going against us, and sometimes too quick to react.  Within another 9 minutes, at 10:42, the line is back down to 1 lay 15 on only 16% Rams bets!

Some large money group thought the initial Cris line was right, and down the line came.  But as 84% of all bets were still flowing in on New England, up went the line again and by the next morning it’s back up at 2 1/2 where it’s been now for the last 9 days.  And it’s most likely going to stay there.

Super Bowl Best Bets To Win – Fade The High Number Of Public Bets

The best way I know to pick a winner, especially in a stand-alone game such as Monday night football, is to become friends with a sportsbook writer at a major casino and find out if a good majority (70% or more) of the bets are one side.  Then bet the other side, against the public.

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This is NOT how much money is on each side, but rather the number of people betting on a certain team.  The question then is why?  Why is the public mostly wrong in their analysis of games when so much information is out there.

Everything, all information, is out in the open; in publications, on the internet and even on boards inside the sportsbooks themselves.  All the injuries, all the trends, every possible angle one could think of or even imagine.  So why is the average person, seeing all of every possible statistic and fact, constantly and mostly wrong in their analysis of the outcome?  After studying this question for years I have come to this answer:

I have no idea.

It doesn’t make sense, but it doesn’t have to.  We don’t have to know why, we just have to know what works.  This trend has been the longest running positive trend I have come across in all the years I’ve been doing this, and believe me I have turned over every rock, searched for every shortcut and tried every other crazy scheme I could think of to win and get ahead.

I write an almost daily (depending on the schedule) NCAA Basketball Best Bets To Win segment on fantasycpr where I make my own line on each game and predict the winner when it varies from the actual line.  Feel free to check it out; so far it’s mostly winners.

Without question in this Super Bowl the vast majority of bets are on the Patriots, although it does vary considerably.  At SportsInsights the public % on the Pats is 78%, and at Covers it is 61%.  Others are in-between.

That’s enough to pick the Rams for me.  All the other statistics offered in a zillion other places and ways can be presented in such a way as to support either team.  The initial thought is New England will win – the quarterback, the history, on and on.

I am going against that thought.  I will be on the sportsbook side of this game with my money on the Rams.

Pick:  Rams +2 1/2, looking for a stray 3

Good Luck To Us!