Fantasy Basketball Top Plays and Fades, Thursday January 31
Welcome into the Thursday edition of Fantasy Basketball Top Plays and Fades! We have six game slate highlighted by one giant late night hammer out on the West Coast!
I wouldn’t say this is unusual but the last two games of the night sure are among the most appealing of the slate. We have the Lakers taking on the Clippers and the main event of the evening for fantasy purposes is the Sixers visiting the Warriors. One game that maybe goes a little overlooked is the Bucks taking on the Raptors for Eastern Conference supremacy and that makes an interesting case to go against the grain for the late games. Let’s see who’s standing out to chase down tonight in our Fantasy Basketball Top Plays!
Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Point Guard
Top Play – Reggie Jackson, Pistons
You might want to take a picture of this one because Jackson won’t be here all that much. Part of why he’s a top play is the fact that we just saw this matchup a few days ago and Jackson did produce 30 DK points. Part of it is Ish Smith is due to miss another game, so the minutes for Jackson should remain around at least 30. Even though he’s nothing special for fantasy, 30 minutes gets your attention when a player is only $4,700 on DK.
Another factor working for Jackson tonight is the fact that the Mavs are so generous to the point guard position. They rank seventh in DK points allowed and even someone like Jackson should be able to take advantage of the spot. It’s also quite attractive that his price is still under $5,000 on DK, making the 6x mark at just 30 points.
Honorable Mention – Derrick White, Spurs
Fade – Patrick Beverly, Clippers
I was kind of excited when I saw the Clippers playing the Lakers because I thought Beverly would fit in nicely with the high paced game and it would lead him to more opportunities. While I still believe that, I also think his price has gotten to the point where you have to be a little concerned about the floor.
It’s gotten up pretty high for a player that can score under five real points. Part of the reason his price has come up so high is because he’s coming off consecutive double doubles, with rebounding being the second component. I just don’t have a lot of faith that continues and I’m not paying the price for Beverly today, even though I still think he can be solid. I just think he’s priced above where his ceiling really is.
Honorable Mention – Kyle Lowry, Raptors
Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Shooting Guard
Top Play – Lou Williams, Clippers
I’d be a liar if I said I loved Sweet Lou’s price and he was too cheap in a great spot. He is in a terrific spot because the Lakers are terrible against shooting guards. They have allowed the fourth most DK points and second most real points. If giving up real points doesn’t fit the wheelhouse for Williams having a nice game, I’m not quite sure what else would.
The production is almost always going to be a little spotty with Williams because he doesn’t play a ton of minutes like you would want him to. The average is just around 25 minutes and you wish he could just consistently hit 30. Even if he’s more on the 25 end, Williams is up over 33 percent of the usage when he’s on the court and has taken over from a FPPM aspect as well, averaging a team high of 1.23. The price is high but the matchup and situation leads me to think it’s still fine to pay for Sweet Lou tonight.
Honorable Mention – Jimmy Butler, Sixers
Fade – DeMar DeRozan, Spurs
Anytime a veteran is coming back off a knee injury when the All-Star break is right around the corner is a time to be a little bit careful. When that veteran is coached by Gregg Popovich, the alarm bells should be fairly loud in the back of your head. The good news is DeRozan only missed three games, which doesn’t lead me to think there’s a firm minutes limit here. I just wouldn’t trust it and am not a fan of DeRozan despite the lower than normal price tag.
DeRozan was deployed at the small forward position to start the last time he was active and the Nets have been the eighth best team against that position so far this year. DeRozan isn’t typically a player that we worry too much about matchup but there’s the other factors to weigh in here. Once you consider the whole package, I can find other players I like better.
Honorable Mention – Klay Thompson, Warriors
Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Small Forward
Top Play – Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks
It’s been a little bit since Antetokounmpo has landed on this side of the article, but I’m really finding myself loving him tonight. Granted, from a pure basketball sense, I love the Greek Freak every single night but we’re talking fantasy here. The Raptors are interesting defensively, because they do have players to throw at Antetokounmpo to try to slow him down. That really hasn’t worked so far this season, however.
In the two games that these teams have tangled, Antetokounmpo is averaging 31 real points, 18.5 rebounds and five assists. At a price tag under $11,000 on DK, that would get it done for sure. On the season, Toronto is giving up the sixth fewest points in the paint so the 6.6 paint touches wouldn’t seem to mesh. The flip side is they give up the sixth most rebounds, which helps explain the gaudy number Greek is averaging so far in those two games. There’s not many options in the five digits on DK tonight, and Antetokounmpo stands out among them all.
Honorable Mention – Tobias Harris, Clippers
Fade – Brandon Ingram, Lakers
Ingram might not be a small forward on DK but he’s still a fade on that site as well. First off, Kyle Kuzma could be back for this game which would give the Lakers another option to score on the floor. Even if Kuzma remains out, I’m not sure I want to pay the price tag involved with playing Ingram when he’s so inconsistent.
My fear in this fade is that the Clippers play at such a fast pace, he could get there on sheer volume alone. Also, Ingram is one of the only Lakers that you can feel good about the minutes he’ll get. I still think the risk outweighs the reward because he’s fairly dependent on real life points. He averages under five rebounds and assists on the season so unless he has on outlier on those stats, he could easily score 20 points and leave you in the lurch.
Honorable Mention – Kawhi Leonard, on FD more than DK
Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Power Forward
Top Play – Draymond Green, Warriors
The one Warrior who hasn’t seen a big hit in his usage or FPPM in the five games with DeMarcus Cousins has been Green. In some ways, that’s not terribly surprising. One, Green’s usage was never really that high so it couldn’t go all that much lower. He’s a big facilitator in the offense and that hasn’t really changed with the addition of Cousins. On top of that, the Sixers have struggled with power forwards all season and Wilson Chandler won’t be able to stop Green tonight.
The Sixers have allowed the eighth most real points to power forwards, which isn’t really going to be a thing with Green given the Warriors current offense. Philly is in the bottom five in rebounds allowed and even though they’re respectable in the assists allowed department, not many power forwards are the same style that Green is. The price is right for Green tonight and I plan on having a good bit, especially since he’s rested and fresh after sitting last game.
Honorable Mention – LaMarcus Aldridge, Spurs
Fade – Aaron Gordon, Magic
I’ll be frank and say that I don’t know what to do with Gordon tonight but I can’t help but think if I play him, he’s going to bite me. To be fair, Gordon has been excellent the past three games. He’s had at least nine rebounds, which obviously has helped boost his score and suddenly he’s shooting the ball a lot more. He’s had 16, 18 and 19 attempts from the field and that represents a sharp change overall. Gordon has been averaging about 13 shots a game and has been under double digits too many times lately.
The price has started to rise and I think this is generally the time to hit the brakes. Usually I’m fine attacking the defense of Thad Young on the Pacers side but I have serious trust issues with Gordon at this point in the season. Indiana is a good defensive team and has only given up the eighth fewest DK points to power forwards all year. Maybe Gordon has turned the corner but I’m not ready to bet on that yet.
Honorable Mention – Serge Ibaka, Raptors
Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Center
Top Play – Ivica Zubac, Lakers
Much like yesterday, I would not use this play in anything other than GPP because there is risk involved. If you’ve been playing any Lakers lately, you likely know that the rotations can be sporadic and unpredictable. There’s a reason the Michael Beasley chalk failed the other night and it was because he only got 10 minutes on the floor. Zubac also saw reduced minutes but I have a strong feeling that was because Joel Embiid was on the other side more than anything else. Zubac has started to show flashes but Embiid was always going to destroy him.
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The Clippers have been a spot that we’ve used centers against all season long and they’re in the bottom five in paint rebounds and points allowed. If Zubac just gets 25 minutes, he’s going to be worth his price tag. If he happens to approach 30, he could be a real difference maker on the slate, especially with Rondo back in the lineup to help feed him the ball down low.
Honorable Mention – Nikola Vucevic, Magic if you want to pay for a safe floor
Fade – Jarrett Allen, Nets
This slate is a little weird for centers because it doesn’t have the normal plethora of options towards the high-end. Every major name has at least a small strike going against him that you can use as an excuse to not use him. That’s part of the reason I’m finding myself in the mid-range with Zubac but I’m not taking the chance with Allen tonight.
There have been spots where I’ve been willing to use Allen when it’s been a great matchup. You pretty much need a great spot because Allen doesn’t get a ton of minutes. He’s barely averaging 26 minutes and the matchup is frankly terrible. The Spurs have allowed the fourth fewest DK, seventh fewest real points and the eighth fewest rebounds. There’s no reason to try to get too cute to use Allen tonight, even on a smaller slate.
Honorable Mention – Brook Lopez, Bucks
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