Good day and greetings from your NCAA basketball best bets to win host and value gambler. We’ve got a full Thursday schedule so let’s find out how we can beat the books.
For those seeing this for the first time, I will be giving NCAA basketball best bets for the upcoming days games having written this article the night before. The lines I quote are the live lines at the time of writing, and if the line mentioned here is significantly worse for you then consider it a no bet.
Lines are very important and are the key to my value plays. On average, 1 out of every 14 games that move at least 1 1/2 points from the opening number will land (the final score will be within the line move) so we want to make sure to get the proper number.
Some lines will be better than you see on here from the night before, some the same and some worse. Disregard any play that is significantly off the number listed, has an unexpected injury, or any other factor not known before the day of the game that would negatively impact our play. I am playing these games also and will tweet when I can find anything important.
Yesterday, Wednesday, we had another winning day going 5-2 on our plays and we are now 31-19-1 overall.
Analysis of every game consists of the number I make the game, which I call the raw number, and the associated trends within the game including and especially how the teams are currently playing.
Sometimes you will see a stat saying team X has covered 8/10, then upon examination you see that team lost the last 2 in a row. Stats can be a trap so I filter them out for you.
Having said that, let’s get to our NCAA basketball best bets. I will be going thru these games in time order; if the strength of the play deviates from the standard unit it will be pointed out as the game is discussed. All times Eastern. Here we go:
NCAA Basketball Best Bets To Win – Lay the Boilermakers
Purdue -5 1/2 over Penn State, 7 pm
This was a little scary to recommend at first as Penn State has dominated the last 3 meetings in the series, but recent play and my number on the game has me laying the favorite. Helping also is the spread dropping 1 1/2 points from the opener.
Purdue has won and covered their last 5 games overall, 2 of which were on the road. Meanwhile Penn State has lost straight up and ATS their last 4 home games. Even more importantly to me, I see the number as being Purdue by 14 so let’s try the favorite up to -6.
Fairfield and Manhattan UNDER 126 1/2, 7 pm
Since Manhattan’s starting forward Pauly Paulicap went down with a knee injury 4 games ago, they went under to the posted total by a combined total of 70 points in 3 games.
Fairfield has gone under in their last 4 overall, and the last 3 have gone under in the series between these 2 teams.
I don’t make my own number on totals but it seems as if the linesmaker has not yet caught up to how slow Manhattan is currently playing, albeit 126 1/2 is a low number and the game has a close spread which could mean fouling points near the end.
I still think we have enough of an edge to go under. The total opened at 125 and is heading up so hopefully we will get even better than the current line.
Cal Riverside -7 over Cal Poly Slo, 10 pm
Riverside is not in the habit of being a favorite of this size; in fact they are rarely a favorite at all. I would like to be getting a little bit better line than -7 but this should be good enough. We have gotten a little break as the line opened at 8.
CPS has been on a bad run having lost 7/8 to the line, while Riverside has covered their last 3 at home, winning 2 of them outright as underdogs of 4 1/2 and 9 points.
My number adjusted for home court is Riverside by 12, but they excel at home so I think we can add some value to them and give them a play at -7.
NCAA Basketball Best Bets To Win – Samford Over Once Again
East Tennessee State and Samford OVER 146, 7 pm
I’m looking straight forward in this game and calling for another over. Check out these trends: These 2 teams have played 8 consecutive overs in their series dating back to 2015, ETS has played over in 8/9, and Samford has gone over in 9/10.
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The big consideration with all these overs is when the linesmaker will over-compensate expecting bettors to wager on the over at an inflated number. I don’t see that happening here as 146 is right in the range where earlier posted totals stood.
I don’t believe we need to over think this as we will probably be talking ourselves out of a winner. Let’s take the over here for what still appears to be good value.
Eastern Illinois +1 over Eastern Kentucky, 8:30 pm
EIU keeps finding a way to win at home except when they are a large dog, and they have won the last 4 in the series. EKY is having a difficult time away from home dropping 3/4 ATS. My number on this game is close, so I’m banking on this home trend to continue.
Weber State -9 over Portland State, 9 pm
My number on this game is Weber by 16 and the recent trends are a plus as well. Weber has won the last 3 in the series, has covered their last 5 overall while PSU has dropped their last 3/4 ATS.
Late addition – Southern Mississippi PK over Florida International, 7 pm
The game opened Southern Mississippi 2 but the move down to PK has put this in play territory for me. My number after adjusting for home court advantage is SM by 4, only playable if SM is not laying any points.
The recent play has sent money on FIU here, with FIU looking better in the prior 5 game span than SM. However in the last game played for both teams the pattern reversed, and in my experience that is enough to break a trend.
As long as we are getting pick or plus points with Southern Mississippi they are a play.