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Super Bowl LIII Best Bets

By Matt McGarvey

NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA - JANUARY 20: Head coach Sean McVay of the Los Angeles Rams looks on in the first half while taking on the New Orleans Saints in the NFC Championship game at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome on January 20, 2019 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images)
NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA - JANUARY 20: Head coach Sean McVay of the Los Angeles Rams looks on in the first half while taking on the New Orleans Saints in the NFC Championship game at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome on January 20, 2019 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images) /
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Super Bowl LII Best Bets

New England and Los Angeles will head to Atlanta, in a game in which the Patriots opened anywhere from +1 to -1.5. They’ve now been bet out to -2.5, with a heavy backing from the public bettors. I’ll take you through my thought process on some of the investments that I’ll have for the Super Bowl, this Sunday with our Super Bowl LIII Best Bets.

LAR +3

In stand alone games, especially the Super Bowl, the public does have their say in moving the line. That being said, with heavy action coming in on New England, if oddsmakers look to balance the book and go to 3, I’ll be moving in heavily on Los Angeles. It’s simply a numbers play and probably wont last long if the decide to move to 3.

In addition, I think the New England defense will be a welcomed change of pace for the Los Angeles offense…

Betting LAR live in game

With two offensive masterminds featured in this matchup, it becomes more difficult to project a game plan for each offense. We know that both are willing to completely change their styles of play in order to exploit an opponent weakness, and rightfully so. With that being said, I’ll be looking to back the Rams if we see them willing to run their offense out of “12” personnel.

The Rams play more “11” personnel more than any other team in football. Now with two weeks to prepare, will McVay be willing to alter his game plan to exploit this? I can’t give you a confident answer, hence the live wager possibility. We have seen him use more “12” personnel later in the season, and they were able to involve the tight ends, Gerald Everett and Tyler Higbee more.

It makes sense, considering how the Patriots will be able to use their excellent DB’s, Stephon Gilmore and Jason McCourty on the outside. I have a hard time believing that the Rams receivers will have a ton of success in this matchup. If we see McVay willing to run the offense out of “12” personnel, involving Everett, Higbee, and Gurley out of the backfield, early, I’ll be moving on the Rams in live betting.

Cordarrelle Patterson Over 1 REC -130

Another move simply based on a bad line. Patterson has only failed to record a reception in four games this season, including the playoffs. One of was against the Chargers in which they ran the ball the entire game. Another was against Tennessee in which they were blown out 34-10. Another was against Buffalo in which they led the entire game. The point being, that I think that New England will have to pass the ball at some point and -130 is an exploitable price on this prop.

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