Super Bowl LIII pick against the spread

It’s the biggest betting day of the year, and we’re here to guide you through. We’ll help you choose between the Los Angeles Rams and New England Patriots in Super Bowl LIII.

It’s been a long journey to get here. It all started with the first week, where we all thought the Super Bowl would come down to the Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC, and the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC. Going into the season, the Kansas City Chiefs were 29/1 to win it all, while the Oakland Raiders were 35/1. Those are real odds.

This happens every year. We go into the football season thinking we know what teams are, then things fall apart. Five of the ten teams with the best odds to win it all coming into the season didn’t even make the playoffs. The NFL season is funny that way.

Everything came to last weekend, where both the AFC Championship Game and NFC Championship Game came down to the number one and two seed in the conference. Then, both games went into overtime. Unfortunately, both games had some issues with officiating, but they were still two of the best championship games we’ve seen in a while.

That brings us to this weekend, the biggest betting weekend of the year. Last year, there was $158 million bet on the Super Bowl. Betting has been trending upwards every year, and with sports betting legal in more and more states, expect that trend to continue.

So, what should your bet be?

New England Patriots (-2.5) vs. Los Angeles Rams

This line started on the Westgate Sportsbook as Los Angeles Rams -1. By the time we hit Monday morning, the line shifted more than three points. Do you know how much money people need to bet to turn a line like that? It’s millions and millions of dollars on one team. The fact that the line is sitting at -2.5 shows that the large majority of people are betting on the New England Patriots.

(For those who don’t know, this line means the Patriots have to win by at least three points to win the bet. If the Patriots win by two or less, or if the Rams win at all, then the Rams win the bet.)

This line is very, very interesting. The Patriots have never won a Super Bowl by less than three points. In fact, in Super Bowl history, only one team won by less than three points. It happened during the “wide right” play where the Buffalo Bills lost to the New York Giants on a missed field goal. In 52 other instances, the winning team won by at least a field goal.

That means you’re basically picking the team you think is winning here. There are always trends you shouldn’t bet against, and this is one of them. We’ve made multiple bets this season taking the points as a buffer, but in the biggest game of the year, that’s not an option.

So, now we have to look at the teams objectively, and make our pick. First, we see the Rams. They are here thanks to a bad call in the NFC Title Game. We don’t need to harp on it, but it is what it is. That shouldn’t take away what they did all season long. They have a ridiculous defensive line anchored by defensive tackle Aaron Donald. He’s going to run away with the Defensive Player of the Year Award.

The big question mark is the Rams offense. Todd Gurley was getting MVP buzz for parts of the season. Yet, down the stretch he’s been on the bench in favor for C.J. Anderson, who was on the street late into the season. Jarrod Goff is a very good quarterback, but he’s not one of the best in the league. There’s still not a lot of confidence he could win a game by himself if necessary.

The coaching matchup may be the most intriguing. Bill Belichick is the veteran who has owned this league for two decades. He won his first Super Bowl against a team from St. Louis who shared the name with his current opponent. When he won his first Super Bowl, Sean McVay was playing high school football. The 33-year-old Rams head coach has taken the league by storm, and looks like he’s going to be here a long time. He could be the guy who’s in Super Bowls for the next 20 years, but there’s nothing like your first. Whoever gets the better of the coaching matchup probably wins the game.

The Patriots, meanwhile, have been confusing on offense all season. Every so often, Tom Brady looks human. There were games where he didn’t even look like a top 15 QB, despite winning the MVP just a year ago. In the playoffs, the Patriots have been really good on offense, thanks completely to the Pats offensive line. Brady has all the time in the world to make passes, but with Donald, Ndamukong Suh and others going against them, it won’t be as easy as it has been.

The defense has been the driving force of the Patriots all season. Led by a secondary that can shut down the opposing team’s best weapon, they shut down Tyreek Hill, causing the Kansas City Chiefs to change their game plan in the Championship Game. They will look to do that against Brandon Cooks and the Rams offense.

This may be the hardest game to pick all season, thanks to the stakes and all the “what ifs” surrounding the game. If Gurley plays like he has all playoffs, it will be hard to win. If “old Tom Brady” shows up, it’s hard to think the Patriots can win. Whoever wins the Pats offensive line versus Rams defensive line matchup gets a big boost. This one has to be a gut pick.

When picking the team you think will execute, can you really pick against the Patriots? They’ve executed on a high level for decades. Literally decades. Yes, just one year ago their defense failed miserably in the Super Bowl and they lost, but this is a different opponent. It’s also not an NFC East opponent, which seems to be the Patriots Kryptonite. Take the Patriots. They’ve proven it on this scale before, and they have the slight coaching advantage.

New England 24 Los Angeles 17