NBA DFS Picks and Pivots Friday, February 1 – Thunder Buddies

Welcome to the Friday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!

For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy basketball line-up and win big.

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.

Thursday was a wild day in the NBA as we got a blockbuster trade between the Knicks and Mavericks just hours after it was reported that Kristaps Porzingis wanted out of New York and we followed that up with some wild post-lock NBA DFS antics. LeBron James went from out, to doubtful, to active and ended the night with 57 fantasy points which was the third most on the slate, while a player I had 100% exposure to in Klay Thompson was an illness late scratch which left me with 0’s across the board. I try not to get too worked up about NBA injury news and this late scratch issues – chalk it up to a bad night and understand that they are going to happen. Ultimately my process felt right as the Warriors/Sixers stars all showed up in a big way with as Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons and Steph Curry were three of the top five performers on the entire night – if only Klay had played….oh well, on to tonight!

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.

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As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.

Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!

NBA DFS – Friday Slate Breakdown:

We have a relatively light five game NBA DFS slate for a Friday Night and right off the bat there are going to be some players and trends that I could see dominating how this slate is broken down in the industry today.

First and foremost, James Harden ($22.7K) becomes decision point number #1 as we await the injury news for Chris Paul. Initially it was reported that after being limited to around 25 minutes in his first games back that CP3 would see his minutes increased tonight against Denver but now we have CP3 popping up as questionable on the injury report with back soreness.

We all now the drill by now – when CP3 is out, you play Harden. Lock. Load. Rinse. Repeat.

The match-up here against Denver both from a Vegas viewpoint and from a historical perspective are screaming that this is a floor game more so than a ceiling game for the Beard. Although this Rockets/Nuggets game has a 227 total which is tied for highest on the slate, it is conversely the slowest projected pace game, being the only game where both teams see over a 2 possession decrease on their season long pace metrics.

Over the last two seasons, Harden has faced the Nuggets five times, eclipsing 60 fantasy points in only two of those meetings, overall averaging just over 55 fantasy points per game. This includes a game on January 7 of this year where CP3 was out and Harden, in Houston, dropped 65 fantasy points. At $22.7K, you are going to need even more than 65 fantasy points for Harden to hit 3x value here tonight though.

One interesting note here – the Nuggets have listed Gary Harris as questionable and that becomes important in our decision-making process as if Harris were out, you are taking an elite on-ball defender off the court which opens up even more for Harden.

I think there is a clear path here to locking in Harden and running it back with Nikola Jokic ($19.2K) on the other side and on FantasyDraft it leaves you with just under $10K per player for the rest of your roster.

One of the reasons I could see this build being so popular – and why I am terrified for this slate – is we have so much value..ON THE KNICKS.

With the massive deal for Tim Hardaway Jr., Courtney Lee, Trey Burke and Kirstaps Porzingis now done and it unlikely the new additions of Dennis Smith Jr, Wes Matthews and DeAndre Jordan will be ready to play tonight – you are going to have the perfect storm of short rotation and all the usage.

The problem is – it is the Knicks, and if chalk Knicks value is going to be the way to go tonight against Brad Steven and the Celtics defense – although I understand the logic, I am going to find ways to pivot off it.

Sure, could Allonzo Trier go nuts with THJ/Burke gone and Mudiay/Ntilikina both injured – sure. Could Enes Kanter stop kissing the Knicks logo at mid-court and randomly play 30 minutes and have a big game? Sure!

Could whoever David Fizdale plays tonight fail to score 75 total points against the Celtics and everyone is left wondering how they got suckered into playing chalk Kevin Knox against an elite defense like Boston? Yes.

If Harden/Jokic with Knicks value is the buzzy discussion today, and I have a hard time not seeing that it will, as “new news” always dominates DFS discussion, then I think we owe it to ourselves to find ways to pivot. And pivot we shall.

NBA DFS – Time to Pivot:

If CP3 ends up sitting out, I think the obvious star pairing on this slate will become James Harden/Nikola Jokic and while I understand the thought process, there are other stars on this slate that have ever bit the ceiling and we could get them at lower relative ownership.

Russell Westbrook ($19.5K) and Paul George ($17.9K) become an intriguing pivot on this slate in a game against the Miami Heat that I doubt will get much love, but I think the underlying data is saying we should.

Of the five games on this slate, the Thunder/Heat has the second fastest projected pace game environment with Miami seeing the second largest pace boost on the slate behind Utah (versus Atlanta).

Westbrook has seemingly been quiet lately but steps on to the court tonight in Miami with four straight games with a triple-double and will go for five in a row. Think about that for a second, Westbrook is going for five straight triple-doubles – this would have been a story a year or two ago, but are we starting to take his greatness for granted a bit?

Westbrook has put up 65+ fantasy points in three of his last four games and put up 60 and 70 fantasy points in his two outings against Miami last season so there is every bit a path here tonight where he could end the night as the top raw point performer on the slate.

Both Steven Adams and Terrance Ferguson missed the Thunder’s last game against the Magic and although they were both able to practice on Thursday, they have not yet been confirmed as active for this game which could mean another night of Nerlens Noel ($7.4K) who dropped 33 FP in 34 minutes and would be an instant value plug and play if Adams is unable to play again.

Miami is a much tougher team to crack as their rotations even with injuries to key players, fluctuates from night to night and makes an all-out stack of this game tough to stomach. Josh Richardson ($12.3K) and Justise Winslow ($11.4K) are the two Miami players that I have the most interest in here as they have the most stable minutes of any Miami players, playing 30-35 per night in an extreme pace up game environment.

Dwyane Wade ($9.8K) is not someone I have played much at all this year despite his high usage role off the bench and my guess is that with much of the Knicks “value” at this same price point, his ownership will be considerably lower tonight but it is worth noting that Wade has hit GPP value (3.5X on FantasyDraft) in three of his last six games with 25 minutes of court time a near certainty in any game he is active.

The Heat frontcourt is a total stay away from me right now with the minutes fluctuation between Whiteside/Bam and any impending return of Steven Adams would seemingly be the nail in the coffin to that idea.

The way that I would approach this game is to stack the core 4 of Westbrook/George with Winslow/Richardson and mix in secondary value if it opens up, like Nerlens Noel for example. With the deep rotations of Miami, I would not try to get too ambitious with a full on stack but with their pace up game script and the potential for the Thunder to be short-handed/without Steven Adams, this is a sneaky good game to attack that I think will be over-looked on a five game slate.

NBA DFS – Keep on pivotin’:

Nothing screams DFS upside quite like a Memphis/Charlotte match-up, a game with a blistering 204 game total that will have us rushing to stack up both sides of this game for sure! OK clearly that is not the case, but there are a laundry list of injuries on the Memphis side of this game that could open up usage and value against a Charlotte team ranked 23rd in the league in Def-Eff this season.

If we take all five players noted above off the court for Memphis, in a limited 50 minute sample size, it should not surprise anyone that Marc Gasol ($14.4K) leads the team in usage while putting up over 43 FP/per 36. These two teams played back on January 23 and Gasol went absolutely bonkers, racking up 22 points, 17 rebounds, 10 assists and 66 fantasy points as he feasted on an under-manned Charlotte interior. With the low game total and pace down game environment, Gasol feels like an under-priced stud that could get completely ignored and has slate winning upside in a match-up he has recently dominated – if Conley ends up out, I am all in on Gasol.

If Conley does sit, Shelvin Mack ($7.3K) could become an intriguing punt play as he would likely enter the starting lineup for Memphis and any value that is not wearing a New York Knicks jersey on this slate, is value I have interest in.

Bruno Caboclo ($6.5K) is another potential salary saving option from a potentially short-handed Memphis squad who has played significant minutes now in three straight games and remains near minimum priced. Caboclo has now played 23, 28 and 31 minutes in his last three games, going for 23+ fantasy points in two of those outings which would exceed GPP value (3.5X) and make him an elite pivot value option as well.

My preferred course of action in this game would be to simply pick off one or two plays with Gasol being a core building block and mixing and matching the value as it unfolds.

NBA DFS – Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:

Please note – this sample lineup is meant to be illustrative only and should not be used as a plug and play lineup. 

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G: Russell Westbrook

G: Josh Richardson

G: Dwyane Wade

F/C: Paul George

F/C: Justise Winslow

F/C: Marc Gasol

UTIL: TBD

UTIL: TBD

Average Remaining Per Player – $7.35K

Slate Overview: With the overall context being that Harden/Jokic and Knicks value is the way many will attack this small five game slate, I think pivoting away is the best path to take tonight and although we still have a few injuries to get clarity on, I think there is a path to make this work.

As you can see in the build above, I am planting my flag with a different set of stars – banking on the Thunder Buddies in the second fastest pace game environment on the slate to be my pivot to a Harden/Jokic build. The salary savings on Westbrook/PG13 versus Harden Jokic is significant, costing $4.5K less on FantasyDraft, which allows you a path to lock in a third under-priced star like Gasol who has demonstrated 60 point upside in this match-up.

You will notice I left the last two spots open and that was by design due to the unknown injury situations in a few key spots – I could easily throw in Nerlens Noel and Shelvin Mack into those spots assuming Adams and Conley sit as they would make for elite value plays if given starting roles.

This slate is ugly – let’s not sugar coat it, and I could also see it becoming super chalky so let’s be willing to think different on a five game slate and plant our flags where the masses won’t. Good luck all.

Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest NBA DFS news and analysis across FantasyDraft, FanDuel and DraftKings.