Good day and greetings from your NCAA basketball best bets to win host and value gambler. We’ve got a short Friday schedule so let’s find out how we can exploit some weaker lines.
For those seeing this for the first time, I will be giving NCAA basketball best bets for the upcoming days games having written this article the night before. The lines I quote are the live lines at the time of writing, and if the line mentioned here is significantly worse for you then consider it a no bet.
Lines are very important and are the key to my value plays. On average, 1 out of every 14 games that move at least 1 1/2 points from the opening number will land (the final score will be within the line move) so we want to make sure to get the proper number.
Some lines will be better than you see on here from the night before, some the same and some worse. Disregard any play that is significantly off the number listed, has an unexpected injury, or any other factor not known before the day of the game that would negatively impact our play. I am playing these games also and will tweet when I can find anything important.
Yesterday, Thursday, we had another winning day going 5-3 on our plays after adding Coastal Carolina on twitter. We are now 36-22-1 overall.
Analysis of every game consists of the number I make the game and the associated trends within the game, including and especially how the teams are currently playing.
Sometimes you will see a stat saying team X has covered 8/10, then upon examination you see that team lost the last 2 in a row. Stats can be a trap so I filter them out for you.
Having said that, let’s get to our NCAA basketball best bets. I will be going thru these games in time order; if the strength of the play deviates from the standard unit it will be pointed out as the game is discussed. All times Eastern. Here we go:
Princeton PK over Columbia, 7 pm
I make Princeton a 5 point favorite after adjusting for home court advantage, and the 2 teams recent play should be enough to hold this advantage in the line.
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Princeton has won their last 3 ATS while Columbia has lost 3/4 ATS. Had this game been played 10 days ago it would be a different story, but now these teams are going in different directions and I will stick with the trend.
Davidson and St Bonaventure UNDER 130 1/2, 7 pm
This total opened at 125 and has been swiftly taken up to 130 1/2. Davidson has the best defense in their league, and in the last 4 road games they have played the total has gone under in all 4 by a combined total of 82 points.
St Bonny for their part have been playing mostly overs at home, which is probably why the total popped up so quickly, but I am taking this line advantage and playing the game under. Davidson has been dictating the pace on the road.
Northern Kentucky -3 over IUPUI, 7 pm
NKY has won and covered the only 3 meetings between these teams, 2 being last season and 1 in December. Recent play has been scattered with both teams up and down.
The deciding factor for me is that I make the game NKY 7 after adjusting for home court. That is enough for me to lay 3 points here but no more than that for value, and the game would be a much better play at -2 or less.
That’s all I see on this abbreviated Friday schedule – if there is another play I will put it on twitter during the day. Gear up for a big Saturday slate!