Super Bowl Best Bets – Was The Opening Line A Mistake?
By John Fazio
Good day and greetings from your Super Bowl best bets host and value gambler. The question today – was it a mistake by the linesmaker to open the Rams the favorite or a sly trap to entice Patriot money?
I actually find it very odd that the book posting the first line on the Super Bowl would make the Rams a 1 point favorite. The idea of a book is to get as much 2-way betting action as possible so that they do not have to root for any team, they would simply take down the juice.
Additionally, the closer the books can make the opening line compared to where it closes before game time, the better off the books will be. They want as few numbers as possible for the players to win on either side.
In this Super Bowl, for example, players taking New England at a pick along with players taking the Rams +3 (assuming a stray 3 will appear) have the bookmakers in a bad spot. If New England wins by 1 or 2, sportsbooks lose both ways. If New England wins by 3, the books tie one side and lose the other.
That is why this line will most likely not get to 3. NFL final scores do not usually land 1 or 2. On average, not adjusting for the total on the game, in the NFL when the line is 2 the game will fall 1 about 2% of the time, will fall 2 about 2 % of the time, and will fall 3 nearly 10% of the time.
So why open the Rams a favorite and let New England bettors pound the number? One thing for sure, it’s not a trap. The islands didn’t open the game low knowing New England would be pounded this hard.
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Books want equal action, because nobody knows for sure which team will win. Even if they like the Rams and want to trap the public, why not open the Patriots a 2 point favorite? As long as the line stays below 3, New England will take a large majority of bet tickets.
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Opening the Rams favored makes no sense unless the islands really thought they would get equal money around the PK. They chose to open the line according to the strength of the teams without considering the intangibles. And that thinking was way off.
With all the history that is New England, the storybook quarterback, the coach, always finding a way to win, etc., it was a mistake to open this number according to power ratings without accounting for significant public influence.
So now the books have boxed themselves into a corner. They don’t want the line to reach 3 because that will allow professional bettors the opportunity to close a Pk to 3 middle which statistically would be a big loser for the sportsbooks.
At the same time, by holding this line at 2 1/2, they are continuing to get pounded by 70%+ tickets on New England. However the books have been in this position before, and they know, thru vast experience, the public generally loses these bets.
Firstly, they have a small edge against the public because most of the lay bets have come at -2 or -2 1/2 on the Pats. They have that 4% advantage in New England winning by 1 or 2 even though they opened PK.
Secondly, historically the public is wrong about 56% of the time they load up on a spread side greater than 70%, and higher than that above 75%. Bettors laying New England at the current price of -2 1/2 must realize they are giving the books that 4% edge, assuming the islands idea of PK is the proper power rating number.
I will have my money on the Rams because of those advantages. My thoughts are the same as most people, that Tom Brady and company will find a way to win. However years of wagering have taught me to ignore my thoughts and go with the numbers.
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