Hello all, and welcome back to my EPL DFS Breakdown for Saturday’s main slate. Unfortunately, I am short on time this week, so I’ll be changing up the style of my article. I’ll start with a core cash build, then move to some GPPs plays, and I’ll end with my favorite value plays. Enjoy!
There really isn’t much to note on this EPL DFS slate from a Vegas perspective. Chelsea are far and away the biggest favorites on Saturday (unless you’re playing the all-day slate where Tottenham are also heavy favorites). Chelsea burned many people on Wednesday, so you might be able to catch them with lower ownerships.
It’s worth noting that five of the six games Saturday have a spread of less than 1.0 (Chelsea is favored by 1.5). Additionally, all games have a goal total over/under set at 2.0 or 2.5, so there aren’t really many obvious game environments to attack.
From an injury perspective, Bournemouth has already ruled Callum Wilson and David Brooks out. Josh King went off for two goals Wednesday against Chelsea with Wilson out, and without Brooks some additional value pieces could be in play.
EPL DFS Cash Core
Josh King (Bournemouth @ Cardiff, $9,000) – As I just mentioned, King lit up Chelsea for two goals and an assist (62 FDP) on Wednesday with Callum Wilson out. Callum Wilson remains out Saturday, and King, who has three goals in his last two games looks prime to continue that streak against Cardiff City. Cardiff have allowed second most goals in the league so far, and even though they’re playing at home, they just don’t have what it takes to stop Bournemouth. King has a great price tag on Saturday, and you should consider fitting him into your cash builds.
Andros Townsend (Fulham @ Crystal Palace, $8,500) – Fulham’s defense is atrocious. They’ve allowed 53 goals already this year (7 more than the next most). They also allow an average of 2.5 goals per game on the road. Townsend isn’t a prolific goal scorer, but he can’t be ignored in this matchup especially with main forward Wilfried Zaha out. Luka Milivojevic ($7,500), who I wrote up this week, is a good cash option as well.
Eden Hazard (Huddersfield @ Chelsea, $11,500) – Hazard is one of the few actual studs on this slate. He’s going to be chalky, but he’s also in a really good matchup. Huddersfield are allowing 1.91 goals per game on the road, and Chelsea is eager to bounce back from an embarrassing 3-0 loss to Bournemouth during the week. Chelsea is finally playing with a true striker, which allows Hazard to go back to his normal position. Pairing him with Gonzalo Higuain ($10,000) is a safe cash move with plenty of value available.
Kepa Arrizabalaga (Huddersfield @ Chelsea, $5,500) – If you trust Chelsea to bounce back and play well against a last-place Huddersfield team, then Kepa is your guy for cash games. Huddersfield have only scored eight goals in 11 road games this year. They have no business scoring against Chelsea if Chelsea play like they should.
EPL DFS GPP Plays
Glenn Murray (Watford @ Brighton, $8,000) – Glenn Murray finally got out of an awful slump with two goals on Tuesday. That was against a porous Fulham defense. This is not as juicy of a matchup, but Brighton is at home and we all know Murray is a far better scorer at home. Hopefully his two goals will wake up him so he can return to the goal scorer he was earlier in the season. For this price, Murray is worthy of GPP consideration.
Jordan Ayew (Fulham @ Crystal Palace, $7,500) – This is what you call a boom-or-bust GPP play. Ayew is going to be a starting forward playing against an opponent that is league worst in allowing goals. Refer to my writeup on Andros Townsend for the specifics. Ayew is not known as a good goal scorer, but in a matchup like this at a cheap price, he caught my eye for GPPs.
James Ward-Prowse (Southampton @ Burnley, $9,000) – Ward-Prowse is another player on fire, coming into this game having scored in his last three games. He’ll get a weak Burnley defense that is giving up an average of 1.91 goals per game at home this season. With his ability to collect peripherals, he’s had a pretty good fantasy floor lately and his goal upside right now is real.
Artur Buruc (Bournemouth @ Cardiff, $5,000) – Buruc has started two games in a row now and has yet to allow a goal. Those games were against Chelsea and West Ham United. This game is against a Cardiff team that is headed for relegation at this rate. Cardiff is at home though so they should be able to force Buruc to make some saves. If he can keep a win and clean sheet, he could have another big game with a few saves.
EPL DFS Value Bin
Christian Benteke (Fulham @ Crystal Palace, $7,000) – Okay, I know Benteke has been disappointing. I know that he’s played five games all year. I also know how horrendous Fulham’s defense is, and so should you if you’ve read the first parts of this breakdown. Fulham could give up goals to anyone, even Benteke. If you need deep value at the forward position, he should be considered.
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Ryan Babel (Fulham @ Crystal Palace, $6,500) – This one is simple. Babel has played two games this year and he’s averaging 18.8 FDP in those games (~3x). He’s one of the safer low range players at midfield.
Junior Stanislas (Bournemouth @ Cardiff, $6,000) – With Callum Wilson and David Brooks now out on Saturday, Stanislas will have a bigger role in the attack for Bournemouth. He also gets a good matchup against Cardiff. He’s averaging 3.2x value over his last three games, and he should be able to do that again making him a good value play.
Scott Dann (Fulham @ Crystal Palace, $4,000) – Almost any minimum price defense is worth consideration in my mind. Dann needs 12 points to hit value. He could even grab five of those points with a clean sheet bonus. Fulham average 0.75 goals scored on the road this year and CP only concede 1.0.
Jonjoe Kenny (Wolverhampton @ Everton, $4,500) – Kenny looks like he’ll gain a start with Lucas Digne suspended and Leighton Baines still on the shelf. In his four starts, he’s averaging 3.86x at his current price. He should be able to hit that mark again in this game.
Good luck and thanks for reading!
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