Daily Fantasy Basketball: DraftKings NBA Picks February 4: Freak Harden!

LAS VEGAS, NV – JULY 26: Kyrie Irving #37 and Russell Westbrook #24 of the United States joke around during a practice session at the 2018 USA Basketball Men’s National Team minicamp at the Mendenhall Center at UNLV on July 26, 2018 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Picks February 4: Freak Harden!

We have a solid six game slate for our DraftKings NBA tournaments tonight. Harden is back on the map, but CP3 is expected to play. Does that mean we should fade Harden? I did on Saturday and it was a bad idea.

DraftKings NBA Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Trae Young ($7,600): Young has played the Wizards three times already this season. None of those games went well. However, Young has at least 5x value in five straight and seven of ten. He is finally starting to live up to some of the hype, and the Wizards don’t really stop anyone. I much prefer him over Holiday against the Pacers.

De’Aaron Fox ($7,300): I have little confidence left in Fox right now, but this is a good matchup. He has burned us in these before, especially lately. Up until Fox’s great showing against Philly, Fox had less than 5x value in four of the previous six. Is he ready to get back on the horse against the Spurs? Maybe if White is still playing upwards of 30 minutes per game.

Honorable Mention:

Eric Bledsoe ($6,900): If Bledsoe is able to go here, I’m interested. However, I want to keep an eye out for any updates about limited minutes. This is one of the better matchups he can find with the Nets, but if Bledsoe is only given 25-28 minutes, I will go elsewhere.

Darren Collison ($6,200): Collison has only really had one off game since Oladipo went down. That’s pretty good odds for me. The floor is still pretty low, but if he only hits that floor every eight games or so, Collison isn’t due yet. I would also say that it wont come against the Pelicans either. This is a good matchup for Collision with some pretty nice upside.

Monte Morris ($6,000): Morris has posted three straight games of more than 40 DraftKings points with Jamal Murray down. It seems as though Murray is still closer to doubtful than questionable, but even if he does play, Murray likely wont go over 25 minutes. That would leave around the same for Morris, He could still do quite a bit of damage in that time.

Dark Horses:

Tomas Satoransky ($5,600): Satoransky has another dream matchup with the Hawks here. Even though all of Young’s game is starting to come around, his defense has never been strong. We have seen Satoransky put up big numbers a few times as a starter. For this price, it’s worth trying to see if he can do it again.

Patty Mills ($4,100): Derrick White has been ruled out already, so I want all of Mills if he starts. Even if Forbes gets the nod, Mills is going to play more than enough to justify this price tag. This is going to be the value that everyone chases, but I see no real upside to avoiding it. Mills was easily clearing 5 and 6x value in backup minutes. If he plays more than 30, 8x value or more is very possible.

Tim Frazier ($3,900): Jackson is still starting, but Frazier is easily the more reliable play for DFS purposes. Frazier has 88 DraftKings points in the three games with Elfrid Payton out. Jackson has 68.25, but he did put up 31 on the Spurs. This is a much tougher matchup with the Pacers. I’m only interested in the backup here.

My pick: Mills(PG)

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – JANUARY 23: James Harden #13 of the Houston Rockets directs his teammates in the first quarter against the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden on January 23, 2019 in New York City.NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

James Harden ($12,900): I would automatically be discredited if I didn’t at least mention Harden and why I think his 70 DraftKings points games are over. Paul is back, but that’s only part of the problem. My biggest issue is with the matchup. It’s the Suns. This game has massive blowout potential. That has more to do with me laying off of Harden than anything else.

Bradley Beal ($9,100): Since I already turned myself off of Harden, I’ll put two other suitable options up here at the top. Beal has the best matchup in the league as far as fantasy points allowed to off guards. The only question here is whether this game will be a blowout or not. With the way the Hawks are playing lately, I’m leaning towards no. I think this game probably stays pretty close and both teams can’t play defense. If you are the one that stacks games, this is the one to aim for.

Devin Booker ($9,000): Booker has 117.75 DraftKings points over the last two games. Sure, one was the Hawks, but the other was the Spurs. This is a pretty good matchup with the Rockets here. Booker was actually better with Ayton back on the court, so I would still expect Booker to hit at least 5x value.

Honorable Mention:

D’Angelo Russell ($7,900): His inconsistency is not for the faint of heart. There is a lot to dislike about Russell, but the usage remains high enough that Russell is a constant threat to help you take down a GPP. Milwaukee is a solid defensive team, but Russell is pretty much the only offense the Nets have, especially on the outside. The volume will be there. Can he hit the shots?

Kelly Oubre ($5,800): Oubre continues to put up solid numbers for a Suns team that needs them. The Suns will get a team that can run with them in the Rockets. I like most of the secondary pieces in this team, and am in favor of stacking this one as well. Without Harden, of course. I just don’t trust it.

Dark Horses:

Malik Beasley ($5,500): There’s a new Beastley in town! It’s to the point where Gary Harris is going to have a hard time getting his job back. Beasley has at least 30 DraftKings points in four straight games. If both Murray and Harris are back, I think I’m off of this. There simply isn’t enough upside to justify the risk. If at least one of them are still out, roll out Beastley again!

Shabazz Napier ($5,400): Napier drew the start in the first game against the Bucks and scorched them for 51 DraftKings points. Of course, Russell was out for that game. I wouldn’t expect his numbers that high, but Napier has done well with Dinwiddie out. 24 DraftKings points is his floor over that span, which is decent for a value play.

Kevin Huerter ($4,400): Huerter as three straight games in the 29’s for DraftKings points, and now he gets a Washington team that can’t really defend anyone. I expect another solid showing from Huerter, but he doesn’t have nearly the upside as some of the others priced in this range.

My pick: Huerter(SG)

WASHINGTON, DC – JANUARY 21: Otto Porter Jr. #22 of the Washington Wizards celebrates after hitting a three pointer against the Detroit Pistons in the first half at Capital One Arena on January 21, 2019 in Washington, DC. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:

Best Bet:

DeMar DeRozan ($7,500): DeRozan put up 35.5 DraftKings points in the first game against the Kings. Those are solid numbers, but not nearly what we want for the price. On top of that, DeRozan has only hit 5x value once in the last seven games. There is a huge amount of risk here, but he is playing the Kings. It can’t be all bad, right?

Honorable Mention:

Otto Porter ($5,900): Porter is finally back in the starting lineup where he can do some real damage. He put up 38.25 DraftKings points on the Bucks on Saturday in that start. Altanta has a lot of young talent up front, but none of them defend particularly well. There is good potential for Porter here.

Bojan Bogdanovic ($5,700): There’s the Bojan that we expected! You know, the one that put up big numbers with Oladipo out. Bojan is capable of scoring in bunches, and he should get plenty of opportunities against the Pelicans, who are still running without five key players, including three starters.

Dark Horses:

Darius Miller ($4,800): Miller was stymied by the Spurs on Saturday, and I wouldn’t be all that surprised if Indiana was able to do the same thing. However, if you still need more value, you probably aren’t going to do a whole lot better than Miller. He’s seeing a ton of minutes on a team that needs every able bodied person they have right now.

Mikal Bridges ($4,400): Bridges has 73 DraftKings points over the last two games alone. The rookie is putting up some impressive numbers on a team that has no reason not to play him. The Suns are still losing, but at least they are making it look good, unlike the Knicks. They are at least giving the illusion that they are trying. What that means is some great value for us DFS players.

Kenrich Williams ($4,300): Fade the chalk if you want. I’ll keep taking the 7x value. There is so much value even on this truncated slate that we can roll Harden if we want. If you choose to go that route, Williams is definitely a must. He has 99 DraftKings points over the last three games. Moore, Payton, Randle, Davis, and Mirotic are all out again. Enjoy the value!

My pick: Bridges(SF), Williams(UTIL)

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – DECEMBER 21: John Collins #20 of the Atlanta Hawks claps during the third quarter of the game against New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden on December 21, 2018 in New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,900): This is a smash spot for Giannis against the Nets. Giannis racked up a whopping 72 DraftKings points in the first meeting in just 34 minutes. Blowout or not, Giannis is going to go bonkers in this game once again.

John Collins ($8,100): Collins showed what he is capable of when a game stays close against the Suns on Saturday. Collins erupted for 61.5 DraftKings points on the Suns. Washington is somewhat better up front, but not nearly enough to hold Collins under 5x value. He could dominate a game like this again.

Kenneth Faried ($7,000): You guys saw what Collins did to Phoenix on Saturday, right? Now it’s Faried’s turn. He has been over 30 DrasftKings points in every game as a Rocket. That wont change tonight.

Honorable Mention:

Rudy Gay ($5,900): Gay isn’t a sexy name, but he has at least 25 DraftKings points in nine of the last ten games. This is a nice spot for him against the Kings. Gay isn’t going to put up the numbers that he did in his prime anytime soon, but he is still a strong mid level play on this slate.

Thaddeus Young ($5,800): Young keeps putting up better numbers than Sabonis. He has at least 25 DraftKings points in seven straight and has been over 30 in four of those. This is another big spot against a beaten up New Orleans front. What the Pelicans are throwing out there now are a bunch of undersized journeymen. Young could eat them alive.

Trevor Ariza ($5,700): Ariza continues to play very well for the Wizards. This team looks better without Wall and Howard, but they seem to have no intention of steering the team in a different direction. For the rest of the season though, we will continue to get heightened scoring from everyone, even the value players. That should especially be on display against the Hawks tonight.

Dark Horses:

Marvin Bagley ($5,500): Bagley is finally seeing about the same amount of minutes that he was before he got hurt over a month ago. The results have been very good. Bagley has at least 5x value in five straight games. It may be tougher sledding against the Spurs here, but with all of the other good options around, it’s possible that Bagley is mostly ignored.

Jeff Green ($4,900): Green’s move to the second unit has been mostly in name only. He is still playing around 30 minutes per game and still putting up well above 5x value. However, in a night like tonight with this much other value floating around, I’m not sure we need to take this kind of a chance.

My pick: Antetokounmpo(PF), Gay(F)

DENVER, COLORADO – JANUARY 19: Nikola Jokic #15 of the Denver Nuggets plays the Cleveland Cavaliers at the Pepsi Center on January 19, 2019 in Denver, Colorado. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Centers:

Best Bets:

Nikola Jokic ($10,500): Jokic even put up 50 DraftKings points in a less than ideal matchup with the Timberwolves on Saturday. Lost in all of the other Denver value is just how much of a beast Jokic has been in this span as well. He’s going to do it against Drummond tonight too.

LaMarcus Aldridge ($8,000): The Kings are weak up front, so Aldridge should be able to exploit this. LMA has carried the team with the struggles of DeRozan. He has at least 40 DraftKings points in eight of the last ten games. It’s a safe bet to say that the Kings wont hold him under that mark either.

Honorable Mention:

Jahlil Okafor ($7,100): The price does make me a bit nervous here since Okafor hasn’t come close to value in the last two games. There is significant risk trying to do this against an Indiana front that is better defensively than last year. I may wait one more game on Okafor, but he is still playing well. Most of the upside is taken away as well.

Deandre Ayton ($6,800): Ayton had a successful return on Saturday, putting up 35.25 DraftKings points in 33 minutes against the Hawks. He may be even better tonight. Even middling teams without a true center have demolished the Rockets up front. Houston is being outrebounded by a massive margin right now. That’s Ayton’s strong point anyway. He could put up massive numbers here.

Myles Turner ($6,300): Turner has been over 5x value even at this price four times in the last six games. This looks like a really good place to use Turner again. The biggest bugaboo for Turner has been his lack of consistency. Even his floor has been solid lately, so I see very little risk here.

Dark Horses:

Brook Lopez ($5,400): HE’S PLAYING THE NETS! And he put up 34 DraftKings points on them in 28 minutes the first time around!

Alex Len ($4,200): I don’t really trust the output of either Atlanta center, but Len has been more reliable against the Wizards this year than Dedmon has. If you really need more value, either Atlanta center is a decent play. Len is cheaper, but he has more upside. Of course, his floor is single digits.

Ed Davis ($4,100): Davis is the clear backup here, but he has racked up more than 20 DraftKings points in five straight and seven of eight. Even though the Nets are getting healthy up front again, Davis has played so well for a team that is making a surprising playoff push that they can’t really afford to pull him from the rotation. That makes him DFS gold for us!

My pick: Jokic(C), Lopez(UTIL)

Next. NBA DFS best plays and fades February 4. dark

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