FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Monday, 2/4 – Forgot about ‘Dre?

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Monday, 2/4

Welcome back to the Monday edition of the FanDuel NBA Breakdown! I’m “Thunder Dan” and I love playing and writing about FanDuel NBA DFS. I’m ready, as always, to help you get your research started for tonight’s NBA DFS slate on FanDuel.

If you are as depressed as I am that the Patriots won yet another super bowl, or if you were just bored out of your mind watching that game, the good news is we have a pretty exciting six-game slate tonight in the NBA.

"The FanDuel NBA Breakdown is a first look article that is intended to be a starting point for your cash game or GPP research for FanDuel NBA DFS."

My goal when I revamped the Breakdown was to create an all-inclusive article that gives you a place to start your research for FanDuel NBA cash games and GPPs.  When making my cash and GPP picks I always take into account salary, Vegas trends, ownership, and match-up and I always do my best to give you a clear rationale for why I believe each player makes a great GPP or cash target.

This is where I remind you that in order to win in NBA DFS you have to be flexible with your roster construction and sometimes take things down to the wire before lock with late-breaking injury information. At the same time, I always warn against totally scrapping your original first look build, as sometimes the plays that you were on the night before or that morning end up still being the best plays on the slate.

As always, let’s take a quick look at our injury situation and Vegas information to give us a place to start our research.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: First Look

INJURY REPORT

OUT: Anthony Davis, Derrick White, Elfrid Payton, Allen Crabbe, Gary Harris, Clint Capela, De’Anthony Melton, TJ Warren, Nikola Mirotic, Julius Randle, Etwaun Moore, Spencer Dinwiddie, Markieff Morris

DOUBTFUL: NONE

QUESTIONABLE: Jamal Murray, Joe Harris, Eric Bledsoe

PROBABLE: NONE

Something tells me that there’s no way this slate is this clear cut with injury news. But if nothing major pops up today during the day then we should have very little news that we should be waiting around on.

VEGAS INFO

None of the 12 teams in action tonight played yesterday and only the Pacers and Pistons are on the front half of back-to-backs.

The highest total game is the Atlanta-Washington game with a total of 233.

The lowest total game is the Detroit-Denver game with a total of only 209.

Two games have only one-point spreads – the Spurs-Kings and Pacers-Pelicans.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Cash Game Core

Welcome to the cash game core plays section of the Breakdown!  I’ve been giving you a GPP core in the past, so instead, I wanted to provide you with a solid trio of players to start building your cash game lineups with tonight. I highly recommend playing cash games on a nightly basis to help build that bankroll.

Giannis Antetokounmpo (11600)

Giannis is my favorite spend up for cash games tonight as he’s a full 2300 dollars less than Harden and a full 5000 dollars more than any other SF eligible player tonight. Locking in those raw points from a weak position on this slate is an absolute must. Giannis should have no problem topping 50+ FD points tonight against a Brooklyn team that struggles to defend bigger players. He had a massive 31-10-10 game with 5 blocks/steals in the Bucks first game against the Nets!

DeAndre Ayton (7400)

Ayton is back from a six-game absence on Saturday and picked up right where he left off, scoring 33 FD points in 32 minutes against the Hawks. His shot was a bit rusty as he only went 5-15 from the field, but he still double-doubled easily. He has a great matchup tonight against the Rockets who have been getting hammered by opposing centers since Clint Capela went down. He should shoot the ball better tonight and I expect him to get some easy buckets inside against the undersized Rockets guys.

Malik Beasley (4900)

With Gary Harris set to miss yet another game tonight, Beasley should be in line for another start at shooting guard. He’s been impressive during this recent four-game stretch, scoring over 27 actual points per game. You’ll be hard pressed to find another sub 5k player with as much as upside as the explosive, young Beasley, he’s trending up big time.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Top GPP Plays

For tournament plays, I’m looking for more than just 5x. I’m looking for 6-7x or more and we really want to chase those players with high ceilings, not just floors. We also want to take some risks on players that we think we can get at lower ownership than the chalkier cash game plays.

James Harden (13800)

With CP3 back in the lineup tonight, Harden probably isn’t a must play in cash, but that certainly doesn’t mean he can’t still lead the slate in raw points and put up another big number against Phoenix. This game has a total of 229.5 and the Rockets are only 8-point road favorites. I’ll never underestimate Houston’s ability to play down to their opponent or Coach D’Antoni’s tendency to leave Harden in late in games even when the Rockets have a comfortable. Don’t worry about a blowout! Worry more that CP3 steals some buckets and assists away from Harden if anything.

John Collins (7600)

Collins reminded all of his of his enormous ceiling when he erupted for 58 FD points over the weekend.  He feels underpriced here as we are used to seeing him up over 8k and has a solid matchup against the Wizards in the game with the highest total on the slate. Hopefully, the Hawks give him the minutes he needs to make tournament value.

Trae Young (7600)

Young is one of the highest priced options at point guard today, which is odd for a 6 game slate to have no one priced over 7.6k. But anyway, Young is playing some of his best ball of the season, scoring nearly 27 actual points per game over his last 5 while averaging over 8 assists. He’s looking more and more like the big time player that the Hawks expected him to be when they chose him over Luka Doncic (ugh!) and is in a great spot here tonight against the Wizards.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Value Plays

For our purposes here at the Breakdown, we classify players priced at 5000 or less as “value plays.” Identifying value has been crucial this year on FanDuel as the new “drop score” rule has forced us into playing a lot of “stars and scrubs” rosters in both cash and GPP formats.

Tim Frazier (4400)

Frazier is my favorite punt on the board. He’s so reliable when getting minutes (and he’s getting plenty with all the Pelicans’ injuries) that I don’t really even consider him a true punt, just a really great value. He doesn’t even need to score to make value and his rebounding and assists give him a solid floor.

Frank Jackson (3900)

Another Pelicans player? You’ll see a theme here in this section.  Unlike Frazier, Jackson is more of a scoring guard and he showed that on Saturday when he scored 25 actual points on the way to 30 FD points. I plan on using Frazier and Jackson in tandem in some lineups, as the drop score rule gives us the chance to take the player in the timeshare who has the more productive night and drop the other player’s score.

Kenrich Williams (4900)

I’m going to keep going back to this kid until he gets too pricey or the Pellies get healthier (or make a trade – whichever happens first).  He’s getting about 30 minutes a night for New Orleans off the bench and has been productive in those minutes. It’s hard not to like this kid’s upside with how much run he’s getting lately.

Cheick Diallo (3800)

My fourth and final Pelican player is Diallo. He’s the cheapest of all of them and could outscore any of the others if he sees the volume of minutes (23) that he did on Saturday. Diallo is a solid inside scorer, rebounder, and shot-blocker and he’s very capable of going 8-9x on this price if he gets a chance to play 20-25 minutes again tonight.

DeMarre Carroll (4800)

I had to throw at least one “non-Pelican” in this section. Carroll is the same price as another Pelican player I like (Darius Miller) but I think he’s a safer option as he’s a better fantasy point per-minute producer. His 26-27 minute role off the bench is solid and he’s having to carry the second unit for the Nets alongside Shabazz Napier now that Spencer Dinwiddie is out.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Game Stack of the Night

Indiana (-1) @ New Orleans (218 total)

As I mentioned earlier, this is one of two games that has a one-point spread tonight. My favorite thing about this game is that it’s so easy to mix and match plays from both teams in your game stacks. All of the Pelicans with the exception of Jrue Holiday (9100) and Jahlil Okafor (7500) are really cheap (I wrote most of them up in the last section) and getting a lot of minutes with how shorthanded New Orleans is right now.

New Orleans is basically running a 9-man rotation now with Solomon Hill being a nominal starter only. I like Holiday and Okafor the least in this game stack only because they now seem overpriced for their recent production. I’d much rather use the cheap, young guys (Jackson, Frazier, Williams, Diallo) who also seem to be getting more minutes lately.

On the Indiana side of things, I’ll start with Darren Collison (6500) who continues to post some solid numbers in the post-Oladipo era.  Then toss in Bojan Bogdanovic (5700), who is coming off 31 actual points against Miami and has the highest usage rate of any Pacer with Oladipo off the floor. Small forward is a position I always like to use against New Orleans, too.

The last two Pacers I like are Thaddeus Young (6300) and Myles Turner (7100). Young tends to thrive in a faster-paced game environment and the Pacers are getting sped up here by the Pelicans tonight. Meanwhile, Turner continues to be a solid source of scoring, rebounds and defensive stats and has a great individual matchup also against Jahlil Okafor.

If this game stays as competitive as Vegas thinks it will, then a bunch of players on both sides will have the opportunity to have some really solid fantasy performances tonight!

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Sample Lineup and Overview

If you’re not familiar with how I wrap up the Breakdown, this is where I give you my thoughts on roster construction and briefly discuss my strategy for how I want to attack the slate.

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I usually like punting one or two spots on FanDuel with this year’s new “drop score” rule. Playing a lineup of all 5-7k players just makes zero sense to me and you’ll find that the guys winning consistently on FanDuel are going “stars and scrubs” pretty frequently.

Today’s sample lineup is a GPP lineup. I hadn’t done a full-on game-stack in the sample lineup for a while so I wanted to feature my favorite way to stack the Pelicans-Pacers game and show who I would plug in around those players. I absolutely am going to have some Harden exposure in GPPs tonight but he just didn’t quite fit into this build.

Remember, the sample lineup is for illustrative purposes and is not necessarily a “plug-and-play” lineup. This time of year so much can change in the course of 10-12 hours from when you begin to research a slate to when it actually locks.

PG: Tim Frazier (4400)
PG: Darren Collison (6500)
SG: Bradley Beal (9300)
SG: Buddy Hield (6600)
SF: Bojan Bogdanovic (5700)
SF: Giannis Antetokuonmpo (11500)
PF: Cheick Diallo (3800)
PF: Kenrich Williams (4900)
C: Myles Turner (7100)

I hope you enjoyed my slate breakdown and I appreciate you taking the time to read my article. Be sure to share it with friends and fellow DFS players, leave comments or hit me with other feedback or questions on Twitter.  And keep coming back to FantasyCPR for the best free content in the industry! Good luck in your contests!