Fantasy Basketball Top Plays and Fades, Monday February 4

Welcome into the Monday edition of Fantasy Basketball Top Plays and Fades! We have a nice six game slate after the NBA punted on Super Bowl Sunday so let’s got rolling.

You certainly can’t blame the NBA for not having to many games yesterday and if you skipped the three game slate, you didn’t miss all that much. Tonight is a different story as we’ve hit the point where the NBA is going to hog the headlines, especially until the MLB starts up. So let’s jump into our Fantasy Basketball Top Plays!

Tonight brings us a six gamer with the James Harden decision to some extent. I’m still kicking myself for being very vocal about not fading Harden when Chris Paul was out and I did it Saturday night, but sometimes that happens. Let’s get into tonight to see who were chasing.

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Point Guard

Top Play – Darren Collison, Pacers

Over the past two weeks, Collison has garnered a 22.9 percent usage and a 1.04 FPPM and that’s going to probably be even better tonight since he gets to take on the Pelicans. New Orleans has really gone into the tank these past couple weeks with the trade request from Anthony Davis and it appears they might be holding out some players until after the trade deadline. Since they are even weaker than normal, this is a great place to use Collison.

He’s been logging some big minutes as well lately in competitive games, typically going over 30 minutes. Given the safe floor and the upside Collison possesses, it’s hard to see him fail too badly. He really only needs about 30-34 DK points and the Pelicans give up the sixth most assists to point guards, which should mesh very well with Collison tonight.

Honorable Mention – Chris Paul, Rockets(he would be my first choice if we know the minutes are over 30 tonight)

Fade – None 

I know this might seem odd for a six game slate, but my goodness is point guard absolutely loaded tonight. You have so many options and especially on DK, the prices are ridiculous. Matchups are incredible across the board as well, which means I’m really considering a lot of options at this point. Tomas Satoransky, the combo of Patty Mills and Bryn Forbes, Monte Morris, Malik Beasley, De’Aaron Fox and even Trae Young deserve a look tonight. I could easily see using the flexibility DK provides to play at least three point guards tonight.

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Shooting Guard

Top Play – Bradley Beal, Wizards

So one of the interesting facets of this slate is if you exclude James Harden with Chris Paul back, there’s really only two super studs on the slate to pay up for. I think you can make the case for Bradley Beal being just as good as Nikola Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo from a point per dollar perspective tonight. There are some slates that present you with such a great spot that it will be hard to fade it by the time lock rolls around and Beal appears to be in one of those spots.

The Hawks and Wizards game is one of the better ones to target for fantasy tonight and the Hawks are especially bad against shooting guards. Atlanta gives up the most DK and real points to the position and that fits Beal’s role to a tee. He’s the focal point of the offense and should pay off a fair price tag tonight as long as the game stays close throughout.

Honorable Mention – Jrue Holiday, Pelicans

Fade – Bogdan Bogdanovic, Kings 

This is a rarity for me because I’m generally a Bogdanovic fan and will play him over Buddy Hield on a lot of slates because they’re either the same price on FD or Bogdanovic is much cheaper on DK. That’s the scenario we find ourselves in tonight but there’s some red flags to the game of Bogdanovic over the past few games.

For much of the season, he’s been a very consistent player. Sometimes the ceiling wasn’t there but you never felt that Bogdanovic would kill you. I’m not sure we can say that lately and some of that has been minutes related. In the past 10 games, five have seen Bogdanovic play under 29 minutes. Three of those five have been under 25 and that becomes tough to hit value on that kind of court time. The production has shown that as we’ve seen some really low floor games and he’s feels needlessly risky tonight.

Honorable Mention – James Harden, Rockets since the ceiling is lower with Paul playing at least 30 minutes

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Small Forward

Top Play – Trevor Ariza, Wizards 

We’re going to stick with the Wizards and Hawks tilt because it is so nice for fantasy and I’m looking to get a cheaper piece in this side with Ariza. The minutes are just so fantastic night after night after night and the Hawks(stop me if you heard this before) can’t really defend the position. Atlanta gives up the second most DK points to small forwards and the nice bonus is they also give up the most steals per game as well. That’s a nice cherry on top for a player like Ariza who can get some steals as a seasoned vet.

It might come as a surprise but Ariza actually has a usage rate slightly over 20 percent, which is something I didn’t really expect to see. He’s also closing in on 0.90 FPPM which is a little bit more than I expected and if he’s going to be on the floor for around 32-35 minutes, he should be able to hit 6x on DK pretty easily, since he needs just 30 DK to hit that mark. Ariza isn’t a young buck any more but he should be able to keep up with the quick pace in this one.

Honorable Mention – Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks

Fade – Will Barton, Nuggets

I’m a little bit more willing to take a chance on FD because A. the price is much more palatable and B. you could drop him if it was disaster, but Barton has been pretty underwhelming since returning from injury a few games ago. In fact, other than one game where he flirted with a 20/10 game, Barton has not crossed 32 DK points in any other game. That’s really not what you want to see when paying the price for Barton tonight.

Even if Jamal Murray remains out(currently questionable), Barton hasn’t really found his groove yet. That probably should have been pretty easy to predict since he missed the majority of the season so far but the minutes haven’t been there yet either. Barton has barely sniffed anything over 30 minutes yet and until something clicks for him, it’s tough to get on board with this play. I likely won’t to any extent tonight.

Honorable Mention – Taurean Prince, Hawks

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Power Forward

Top Play – Kenrich Williams, Pelicans 

The last day I wrote this article, we landed on Darius Miller because the Pelicans are basically playing without a starting rotation. Anthony Davis, Julius Randle, Nikola Mirotic, E’Twuan Moore and Elfrid Payton are all still out which means there are massive amounts of minutes to be had for New Orleans tonight. One of the players to step in to the void has been the little known Kenrich Williams, rookie forward out of TCU and he’s stepped up so far these past three games.

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He’s played at least 29 minutes in the past three and has come close to recording a double double in each of those games. One game he missed by two points and the other two he missed by two rebounds. Since we can feel very comfortable projecting his minutes, his price is still not too high despite the tough matchup. If you’re looking to spend on one or two of the studs, Williams is a nice complimentary piece that could have some upside as well.

Honorable Mention – Thad Young, Pacers

Fade – Kenneth Faried, Rockets 

I’ve said this before but Faried deserves credit for his contributions to Houston since it couldn’t have been easy to just walk into a team and pick up everything that goes along with that. The price continues to shoot up and even though the Suns seem to be a very good matchup on paper, Deandre Ayton is back and was progressing on defense before his injury.

I don’t think Faried is a terrible play, especially in cash because he’s going to get some minutes and he should land around 30-40 DK points. That’s great and he has a safety net but I’m not convinced he has any ceiling tonight at his price. That’s not what you want when selecting players because the ideal scenario is someone that you feel solid bout the floor but has a nice upside if things go right. I don’t believe that’s Faried tonight, especially on FD. I would much rather just play John Collins on that site.

Honorable Mention – Paul Millsap, Nuggets

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Center

Top Play – Brook Lopez, Nets 

I can make the case that you should play Lopez tonight just because of his epic response on how he would handle a bat in the arena, which has happened in San Antonio recently –

I mean, come on. Who doesn’t want to play a player willing to roll the dice that a bat will give him superpowers tonight?? On a serious note, Lopez does draw a spectacular spot and we shouldn’t overlook it on a six gamer tonight.

Generally, if Lopez is over $5,000 on DK that’s the threshold for me. I’m making an exception because Brooklyn is the worst team against centers in the league. Lopez can pick up a couple extra boards and maybe even an extra block or two. The Nets are fifth in drives per game, which should draw Lopez into the paint. Given everything else Lopez brings to the table every night, Lopez is a nice bargain tonight that will likely not be highly owned.

Honorable Mention – Credit to Brian for finding this absolute gem and it’s my new favorite song of all time

Fade – Jahlil Okafor, Pelicans 

All the analysis for Kenneth Faried could realistically be copied and pasted into this slot. Okafor has been all but forgotten in NBA circles until these past couple of weeks while Anthony Davis has been out. We have seen 50 DK point upside from Okafor in some games already and that’s awesome, but the price is sky high and I’m drawing the line tonight.

Not only do I not think there’s any meat on the bone left for a ceiling game, I think there’s multiple centers cheaper than Okafor that will be better in fantasy production. The Pacers are one of the better defensive teams and are playing at a slower place without Victor Oladipo, which would hurt Okafor’s opportunities in this game. Indiana is the 11th best team against centers and Okafor could easily wind up playing under 30 minutes, as he has sometimes these past few games. If he scores just 30 fantasy points at his salary, he’s a pretty expensive mistake.

Honorable Mention – Willie Cauley-Stein, Kings

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