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NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Monday, February 4

By Brian Tulloch

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - JANUARY 25: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson #24 and D'Angelo Russell #1 of the Brooklyn Nets react during the fourth quarter of the game against the New York Knicks at Barclays Center on January 25, 2019 in the Brooklyn borough of New York City. The Brooklyn Nets defeat the New York Knicks 109-99. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - JANUARY 25: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson #24 and D'Angelo Russell #1 of the Brooklyn Nets react during the fourth quarter of the game against the New York Knicks at Barclays Center on January 25, 2019 in the Brooklyn borough of New York City. The Brooklyn Nets defeat the New York Knicks 109-99. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images) /
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NBA DFS
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – JANUARY 02: Russell Westbrook #0 and Paul George #13 of the Oklahoma City Thunder celebrate a dunk during the first half against the Los Angeles Lakers at Staples Center on January 02, 2019 in Los Angeles, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) NBA DFS /

Welcome to the Monday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!

For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy basketball line-up and win big.

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.

Sunday’s short NBA DFS slate played out relatively simply – if you prioritized the trio of Russell Westbrook, Paul George and Kyrie Irving, you grabbed three of only four players that went for 50+ fantasy points and built yourself a high floor in all contests. The only other players who even cracked 40 fantasy points on this slate were the Grizzlies duo of Marc Gasol and Mike Conley but hey, at least that slate was more fun than the “Super Bowl” yawn-fest that kicked off just a few hours after.

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.

If you are looking to try out a new DFS site, head on over to FantasyDraft and enter my referral code for 10% rake back on your entries.

As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.

Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!

NBA DFS
DETROIT, MICHIGAN – DECEMBER 17: Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 of the Milwaukee Bucks dunks in the first half while playing the Detroit Pistons at Little Caesars Arena on December 17, 2018 in Detroit, Michigan. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images) /

NBA DFS – Monday Slate Overview:

Happy Monday everyone! Hopefully those Monday Morning hangovers aren’t too bad as I would suspect you needed plenty of adult beverages to make it through that Super Bowl last night. As a Jets fan, watching the Patriots in another Super Bowl is basically torture, but watching a punting exhibition for 75% of that game mixed in with 94% of robot based commercials was about as brutal a Super Bowl as I can remember – thankfully we have a six game NBA DFS slate to make it all better.

Looking over this six game slate, we have four games with totals in the 227-233 range with only the Pacers/Pelicans and Nuggets/Pistons standing out as low scoring games (217 and 209 respectively) while only the Hawks/Wizards game stands out as a game environment in which both teams see a projected pace boost.

We have three stars priced at $19K or higher on this slate with James Harden ($22.6K) once again leading the charge even with Chris Paul expected back on the court tonight. Harden is coming off an 86 point fantasy barrage against the Jazz but with CP3 expected back tonight with a full complement of minutes as he had against Denver where Harden “only” went for 58 fantasy points, my guess is Harden gets far less buzz than most would after a game like he had last time out.

As an aside, if Harden does draw ownership tonight as a result of the “lack of stars”, I think getting leverage with Chris Paul ($12.2K) is interesting simply because of his price tag here tonight. CP3 has slowly ramped up his court time, going from 25 to 26 and 29 minutes, putting up 32-33 fantasy points in every single game and now gets the best of all possible match-ups against the Phoenix Suns who rank 29th in the NBA in Def-Eff against the PG position this season.

This is a price enforcement play on Paul, who is priced at the same level as Darren Collison and Monte Morris – how often are you going to get a player of this talent level in this kind of match-up for $12K? If CP3 continues to see his minutes push higher tonight, there is massive profit potential for him here and he becomes an intriguing leverage off those who may chase Harden in the same game.

Nikola Jokic ($19K) has gone for 60+ fantasy points now in four of his last six games but this match-up against Drummond/Griffin and the Pistons tough interior defense is going to really test the ceiling he has. The Joker has been in great recent form lately but this is a star who also has failed to reach 50 fantasy points in two of his last four games so there is certainly a riskier floor with Jokic than I would like when prioritizing my big spends.

That leads me to Giannis Antetokounmpo ($19.4K) who will take on a Brooklyn team tonight that he simply destroyed in their last meeting on 12/29, going for 72 fantasy points on the back of 31 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists and 5 combined blocks/steals. The more I look at this slate, Giannis and the game environment he sits in is looking like the spot to build our core around and the pricing on FantasyDraft looks perfect to anchor to a build around Brooklyn/Milwaukee.

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – JANUARY 25: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson #24 and D’Angelo Russell #1 of the Brooklyn Nets react during the fourth quarter of the game against the New York Knicks at Barclays Center on January 25, 2019 in the Brooklyn borough of New York City. The Brooklyn Nets defeat the New York Knicks 109-99. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – JANUARY 25: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson #24 and D’Angelo Russell #1 of the Brooklyn Nets react during the fourth quarter of the game against the New York Knicks at Barclays Center on January 25, 2019 in the Brooklyn borough of New York City. The Brooklyn Nets defeat the New York Knicks 109-99. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images) /

NBA DFS – Building Our Core:

Another slate where the Atlanta Hawks have the top Vegas data in terms of game total and projected pace and another slate where I simply will look elsewhere. I say this every time a game like the Hawks/Wizards is staring at us on a slate – where are the high floor/high ceiling stars you can anchor to in this game? These two teams played on January 2, and you know how many players went for 50+ fantasy points in that game? Zero.

That is the issue in my mind with building around a game like this, they lack the star power to build your floor around which is why I find myself pivoting to the Nets/Bucks – a game with a 228 total and the second fastest projected pace on the slate as you not only get the star power of Giannis, but the rest of the player pool here is priced at a relative discount when you look at the rest of the landscape.

On the Milwaukee side – the entire starting unit here sits in the same general $10-$12K price range with Eric Bledsoe ($12.9K), Khris Middleton ($12.4K), Malcolm Brogdon ($11.1K) and Brook Lopez ($10.3K) all looking long strong mid-range value to stack around Giannis tonight.

I have been beating this drum for weeks now – the Brooklyn Nets are playing at the second fastest pace in the entire NBA over the last ten games – well you know who is third, the Milwaukee Bucks. So you are getting a game environment that features two of the fastest teams in the league in recent weeks, which may not be obvious for those who simply look at the season long numbers where Brooklyn (14th) and Milwaukee (6th) sit.

You know if I am rocking Giannis, that i am running this bad boy back with D’Angelo Russell ($14.8K). As I seemingly preach every time he is on the slate, with D-Russ you are getting a rare player who has top 10 usage and league leading volume (20 FGA per game over the last ten) and you get him at a price point that has significant profit potential.

Look at the other players with 30% plus usage and 20 FGA per game over the last 10 days – Harden, Giannis, Embiid, Booker, Griffin etc – you know what you will notice, none of them are ever priced as low as the Nets All-Star.

If this game is going to be a low-key track meet, then this is where you find a way to pair Russell/Giannis in every single line-up and hope it shoots out. The beauty of this game from a stack perspective is that pairing this duo of stars (and yeah, I’m calling D-Russ a star) leaves you still with $11K per player for the last six guys in your roster.

We mentioned the price point on the Bucks starters – well the Nets are no different – in fact they are far cheaper, as Shabazz Napier ($10.2K) and Jarrett Allen ($9.9K) are the two most expensive player on Brooklyn outside of Russell.

If you are looking for the safer route – prioritizing the Bucks starters feels like the way to go – as this is a starter heavy rotation where every single one of the Bucks starting 5 is putting up over a FP/M of production the last week. So while the ceiling may be capped for the secondary guys here with everyone healthy, this is a unit that is going to give you 30-35 minutes of court time and around 30-35 fantasy points per player which gives you a nice build around the ceiling of Giannis.

The Nets side is a bit more risky – heck it is a lot more risky, as even with Brooklyn missing LeVert, Dinwiddie and Crabbe – they are still running everyone 20-25 minutes a night which makes it tough to go all-in on this team. It also is a big reason why the prices are down to the level they are which has taken that risk into consideration and now gives us some serious profit potential.

Napier is priced fairly if Joe Harris plays, but becomes a potential elite play if Harris, who is a GTD, is ultimately ruled out. Allen is a great GPP play here, a player with 50-60 fantasy point upside when given the minutes and the recent game log will likely keep people far away from him even under $10K.

Rodions Kurucs ($7.6K) and Rondae-Hollis Jefferson ($8K) are intriguing values at these price points especially with the fast pace projected game environment and if the game goes smaller, they become great ways to move off BroLo/Allen as core pieces of this game stack.

NBA DFS
NEW YORK, NY – NOVEMBER 29: Brook Lopez #11 of the Brooklyn Nets reacts after hitting a three pointer against the Los Angeles Clippers in the second half at Barclays Center on November 29, 2016 in the Brooklyn borough of New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images) /

NBA DFS – Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:

Please note – this is a sample lineup, meant to be illustrative only and should not be used as a Plug and Play lineup. 

More from FanSided

G: Chris Paul

G: D’Angelo Russell

G: Eric Bledsoe

F/C: Giannis Antetokounmpo

F/C: Brook Lopez

F/C: Jarrett Allen

UTIL: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson

UTIL: Khris Middleton

Slate Overview: With 6 total games on the slate, there are really only a handful that stand out as great game environments, which high totals and fast projected paces and what is interesting is that two of the slates biggest stars, in James Harden/Nikola Jokic sit in the two slowest projected games.

Part of why I find myself leaning towards Giannis and this Bucks/Nets game is that you get to build around a game environment with a high total, elite pace and you can anchor it to a star with slate winning upside. The Hawks/Wizards as we mentioned lacks that star piece, as does the Kings/Spurs and I think you can get your Rockets star exposure by taking the $10K discount off Harden and getting CP3 with a full allotment of minutes.

Enjoy this slate, let’s start off Monday with a nice win!

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