DraftKings NBA Picks February 5: LeBron owns the Pacers!

DraftKings NBA Picks February 5: LeBron owns the Pacers!

We have a pretty full eight game Tuesday for our DraftKings NBA tournaments. Only four players top five figures. Two of them are on the same team and one of the others may not play. Should we even use any of them? How about we take a look at the matchups first!

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I did decide to make one lineup with Harden and Giannis just because I could. I’m glad I did. That one placed .75 points ahead of the money line of 288.75 while the other lineup finished nine points back. I survived a giant dud from Frazier and a lackluster showing from BroLo to crack the money line thanks to Harden’s 72.

Stereogimmick took it home with a solid score of 355.75 DraftKings points. He built with Giannis, Beal, and CP3, but hit on all the value with Jeff Green, Mason Plumlee, Kenrich Williams, Bagley, and Huerter. This is one of the rare times that a winning lineup was full of players that I used in my article and across different lineups. There wasn’t one really off the wall play that came out of nowhere tonight. His lowest owned was Bagley at 9.4%.

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DraftKings NBA Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Russell Westbrook ($11,400): Fade Westbrook if you want, but he ravaged Orlando for 66 DraftKings points about a week ago in the first meeting. Russ’s triple double streak is at six. Considering he already posted one against Orlando in said streak, I see no reason to avoid him tonight. That is especially true when you consider the relative lack of star power on this slate.

Damian Lillard ($8,900): Lillard racked up 61.75 DraftKings points on the Heat in the first meeting. The metrics are good for the Heat against point guards, but I’ll trust Lillard here. Hell, he just put up 68 on Utah in the last game. This should be another strong game for Lillard here.

Kemba Walker ($8,700): This is a good matchup for Kemba, but he only picked up 29 DraftKings points in 31 minutes against the Clippers in the first meeting. Walker is one of the most enigmatic high priced players out there. His ceiling is around 60, but he consistently falls below 30. No one else in this price range does. This is a really nice matchup, but I see Lillard as much less of a risk.

Honorable Mention:

Mike Conley ($8,200): Conley just put up 49.25 DraftKings points on the Timberwolves a week ago. I doubt that the trade rumors will knock Conley off his game because honestly, they have been around for the better part of a year now. Conley just keeps going out there and going about his business. He has good upside against Minnesota since Bayless is still the only PG they have.

Terry Rozier ($6,700): Kyrie Irving was ruled out early, so DraftKings got to jack the price up on Rozier to the point where we actually have to think about using him. Rozier would need 33.5 DraftKings points to hit value. However, Rozier started against this same Cavs team back on January 23 and put up a blistering 48 DraftKings points. Yeah, it still doesn’t take much thought. Rozier is definitely worth the money.

Dark Horses:

Dennis Smith Jr. ($5,700): The Knicks used Smith for a solid (on this team anyway) 26 minutes in his team debut. It looks like Smith is actually someone that Fizdale wants to use. Or maybe it’s just the fact that they traded for him. Smith is in good standing in the ocean of diarrhea that is the Knicks. He will likely see around 30 minutes per game. Smith should have no problem giving us good return against a Detroit team that has been gouged by point guards lately.

Jerryd Bayless ($5,400): Rose is definitely out, and Jeff Teague is generously listed as doubtful. That means Bayless gets another start for Minnesota. He has been solid in the starting role, putting up at least 30 DraftKings points in every start. In fact, Bayless has been in the low to mid 30’s in every game but one. That one was against Memphis, tonight’s opponent. Bayless exploded for 51.75 DraftKings points in that game. I really like Bayless at this price.

Fred VanVleet ($4,600): I’m not crazy about this spot for VanVleet. Lowry is likely not going to play, but Philly has been tough on point guards with the exception of Fox on their west coast swing. VanVleet only needs 23 DraftKings points to hit value, but he could struggle to get to that mark. I usually like him better off the bench. However, VanVleet wont struggle so badly that he isn’t a serviceable value pick tonight.

My pick: Westbrook(PG), Smith(G), VanVleet(UTIL); Bayless(PG)

DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

Jimmy Butler ($7,500): Butler’s swings with the Sixers have been to crazy highs and lows with almost nothing in between. He put up some good numbers on Toronto earlier this year. Hell, we have seen Jimmy drop 50 a couple of times in the last ten days. He has also been in the 20’s just as often. This is a good price for his ceiling, but the floor is dangerously low.

Lou Williams ($7,300): LouWill was a bust on Sunday, but he torched Charlotte for 50.25 DraftKings points in just 25 minutes in the first meeting. I guess we should have known better than to chance him against Toronto. This feels like a much safer place to deploy Williams. DraftKings thinks so too. They raised his price $300 even after the lackluster 23.5 against Toronto on Sunday.

Honorable Mention:

Reggie Jackson ($5,500): I do like Jackson less with Ish Smith healthy, but the Pistons have been playing Jackson and Smith together at times. Jackson’s numbers were down last night since he only played 22 minutes in the blowout win, but he still put up more than a fantasy point per minute. So long as Jackson plays about 28 minutes here, he should hit value without a problem.

Dwyane Wade ($5,200): Let’s face it. There isn’t much exciting about playing Wade in DFS in 2019. The upside is virtually non existent. However, Wade has at least 20 DraftKings points in eight straight games and has been over 5x value in six of those including a couple of trips to the high 30’s. Wade is guaranteed about 28 minutes every game and he has been doing well in that role. Well enough that I would consider using him.

Terrence Ross ($5,000): Ross was an absolute disaster against the Nets. I was off of him for that game because the Nets actually defend the perimeter pretty well. I’m back on Ross here though. He put up 28.5 DraftKings points against the Thunder about a week ago and has only been under 5x value twice in the last ten games. Ross should be back on track here.

Dark Horses:

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($4,400): After a quiet January, SGA seemed to have faded back into oblivion again after a strong couple of weeks at the end of December and early January. He’s back! SGA has 73 DraftKings points in just 56 minutes over the last two games against Detroit and Toronto. Those teams aren’t great against point guards, but they are good enough to believe that this isn’t a fluke. There is good upside here against Charlotte. SGA picked up 27.75 DSraftKings points in just 21 minutes the first time around.

Malik Monk ($3,800): Monk is an absolute steal right now. He has at least 6x value in four straight games, and has got as high as 8.5x. Charlotte has given him more minutes as a result. Monk isn’t going to start unless something happens to Lamb, but he has established himself as the go-to place for points off the bench.

My pick: Monk(SG), Ross(F); SGA(SG), Monk(G)

DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

Paul George ($10,200): The low water mark for George is the last three weeks is 46 DraftKings points. That is a floor that few have even in this price range. George racked up 57.5 on the Magic about a week ago. I’m all over Westy and George here again. I rode them to cash that night and plan on doing it again.

Kawhi Leonard ($9,300): Personally, I find it very hard to trust Kawhi right now. Even in a game without Kyle Lowry, Kawhi came up light. Part of it was the blowout, but for someone at this price, you expect a little more than 29.75 DraftKings points in 26 minutes. The last two games have been duds from Kawhi, but I have some good news. Leonard has 117 DraftKings points over two games against the Sixers so far this year.

Honorable Mention:

Bojan Bogdanovic ($6,000): We don’t really know what we are going to get out of Bogdanovic. Last night should have been a smash spot for him and he didn’t even hit 20 DraftKings points. Tonight against the Lakers looks like another great matchup, but the only way I’m interested is if the Lakers trade off half of their team for Anthony Davis sometime within the next 12 hours. On paper, this is good. In real life, this is a massive risk that is probably unnecessary on an eight game slate.

Jonathan Isaac ($5,300): Yeah, I do wish that Isaac was as cheap as he was in the first meeting. Issac’s price has jumped because he has at least 5x value, even at today’s price, in four straight and six of the last seven. The Magic are giving Isaac run, and we should too. He is a strong mid level play tonight.

Nicolas Batum ($5,100): Batum’s ceiling has never been all that high, but he is playing really well right now. Batum has at least 24 DraftKings points in eight straight game, and has a nice matchup on tap against the Clippers with Gallinari still out. He put up 26.25 in the first meeting with the Clippers. I would expect Batum right in that area again. I prefer Batum in cash games, but he is a solid filler in GPPs as well.

Dark Horses:

Jaylen Brown ($4,900): This is a bit tricky because Brown and Smart have mostly taken turns going off when Kyrie is out. Brown put up 33 DraftKings points on the Cavs about two weeks ago. Smart was mostly ineffective in that game. If this holds true again, Brown is a solid play. If he gets 30 minutes, Brown is a lock for more than 30 DraftKings points.

Reggie Bullock ($4,200): Bullock has put up back to back strong games, so it appears to just be Dallas that held him down. Bullock did not have a good game in the first game against the Knicks, but he is a larger part of the offense now. We just have to realize that Bullock isn’t going to be anything special. His ceiling is relatively low compared to everyone else, but when compared to his price, there is still potential for 7x value here.

Stanley Johnson ($3,500): I don’t know where 1.6% of people plucked Johnson from considering that he had just 12 DraftKings points in the prior two games. He was their ticket to big money though since Johnson game out of nowhere with 40.75 DraftKings points. Can he do it again? Good luck if you’re betting on this one!

My pick: George(SF), Isaac(PF); George(SF), Isaac(UTIL)

DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

LeBron James ($10,700): LeBron must either be a huge Spike Lee fan or had an ex girlfriend that was a Pacers fan. James has at least 60 DraftKings points against the Pacers in every game for the last three years. Right now, that sits at nine games. Forget all the rest of the stats. The Pacers done the King wrong somewhere along the line, and he makes them pay for it every single time.

Blake Griffin ($8,800): Griffin had a relatively tame game against the Knicks the first time around with just 41.5 DraftKings points. That’s nowhere near where we would need him. Griffin needs at least 45 to make it worth our while. Griffin played just 23 minutes in the blowout win last night, so he will be well rested of this one. He also put up 31.75 DraftKings points in that small allotment of minutes. If you are expecting a blowout though, Blake likely wont get you enough.

Honorable Mention:

Pascal Siakam ($6,300): Siakam has averaged 36.1 DraftKings points in the three games against the Sixers so far this year. Power forward is still the one position that this team can’t defend. If you are playing any Raptor tonight besides the value of VanVleet, it should probably be Siakam. His output could be pretty close to Leonard’s.

Aaron Gordon ($6,200): Why is Gordon so cheap? I get that most of his games have been duds lately, but his one good game did come against tonight’s opponent. Gordon racked up 40.25 DraftKings points against the Thunder about a week ago. If he does that tonight, he would be approaching 7x value.

Jerami Grant ($5,300): Grant played a staggering 42 minutes against the Magic in the first meeting. Patterson is no longer a threat to his minutes, so Grant is going to play big minutes again. Grant picked up 34.75 DraftKings points in that one. Expecting that again is probably being too optimistic, but Grant should flirt with 30.

Dark Horses:

Kelly Olynyk ($3,900): The Heat run about a dozen players every game. That makes value hard to come by for anyone on this team. Wade’s minutes are pretty much guaranteed, but he doesn’t start. Even Winslow and Richardson are starting to play less minutes. With Whiteside still in the doghouse for some reason and Bam ineffective, Olynyk has taken off lately. He has 68 DraftKings points over the last two games. Oly is one of the few Heat players that I would even consider tonight.

Daniel Theis ($3,500): The Celtics are very deep, so even though Theis has played well when given the chance, he really doesn’t get many chances. Baynes is out again though, so Theis has picked up 15-18 minutes over the last couple of games. Theis has a low ceiling, but he has 40.75 DraftKings points in just 32 minutes in that span. He is a decent, but risky, value play.

My pick: Olynyk(C); James(PF), Olynyk(F), Siakam(C)

DraftKings NBA Centers:

Best Bets:

Joel Embiid ($10,500): On paper this looks like a really nice spot for Embiid. In reality, it hasn’t been. Embiid has averaged 45.7 DraftKings points over 33 minutes against Toronto this year. That’s a healthy average for the minutes, but it would also leave us pretty disappointed if that’s all that Embiid got. I understand taking the plunge, but not when the other three five figure guys are going the way they are.

Nikola Vucevic ($9,600): I laid off of Vucevic last week because I didn’t like the thought of throwing him at Adams. Well, Adams ended up sitting out, and Vucevic went for 54.75 DraftKings points. Adams should be in here, but I’m tempted to throw Vuce out there anyway. Only the Pacers and blowouts have held him under value in the last ten games.

Honorable Mention:

Montrezl Harrell ($6,600): Harrell destroyed the undersized Hornets in the first meeting, putting up 49.25 DraftKings points. The bad news is that Harrell has only hit value once in the last 11 games. You are taking an enormous leap of faith if you are using Harrell here.

Serge Ibaka ($6,200): I view Ibaka as mostly a cash game play tonight. He has 67 DraftKings points in two games against the Sixers this year. Ibaka’s ceiling isn’t very high. He has been in the 30’s in all but two of the last 12 games. Once he was in the 40’s and once he was in the teens. That’s not a lot of variation. Therefore, Ibaka is better suited for cash.

Dark Horses:

Cody Zeller ($4,000): Zeller will make his long awaited return tonight. We can assume that he will be on a minutes limit, but even when Zeller was fully healthy, he was only playing around 25 minutes per game anyway. How much more can they possibly hold him down? Even in 20 minutes, Zeller should hit value here.

Boban Marjanovic ($3,500): FREE BOBAN! What more do the Clippers want from him? Marjanovic has 72 DraftKings points in just 47 minutes over the last three games. Imagine what he could do if the Clippers actually played him half the game. I doubt that happens here, but he’s getting minutes. That’s all that matters for now. Boban is a great value despite the low ceiling.

My pick: N/A; N/A, but if I get a reason to trust Boban I certainly will.

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