Fantasy Basketball Top Plays and Fades, Tuesday February 5
Welcome into the Tuesday edition of Fantasy Basketball Top Plays and Fades! We have an eight game slate on tap for tonight with some interesting studs to pay up for.
We already might have some chalk on this slate because Kyrie Irving is already out. What is interesting is that I feel like Terry Rozier is fairly priced, but I’m not 100 percent convinced he’s an auto play at this point. There is some floor at his current price so it could be a good day to fade in GPP. Just know that there is risk there to some extent because Cleveland can’t guard anyone. On the high-end, it’s likely going to be a choice between Russell Westbrook and Paul George, and I’m still siding with George slightly. Let’s see who else we like tonight in our Fantasy Basketball Top Plays!
Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Point Guard
Top Play – Kemba Walker, Hornets
Sure, the chalky option in cash formats is going to be Terry Rozier and you shouldn’t ignore that. On the flip side, it opens up other avenues to get lower owned plays in good spots and that applies for Kemba. The point guard for the Hornets has been on my fade list a lot lately but tonight is an exception and you’ll get the added bonus of a lower ownership, despite him coming off a big game.
With Walker, I want to target him against high tempo teams that give up a lot of real points to point guards since that fits his game so well and that’s exactly what the Clippers represent. They give up the sixth most real points to point guards and then on top of that, are in the top 10 in pace numbers on the season. There’s serious risk with Walker as we’ve seen the past few weeks but if you want to take a shot at him in tournaments, tonight is your night.
Honorable Mention – Terry Rozier, Celtics
Fade – Damian Lillard, Blazers
This might be a little weird because a player like Dame is generally matchup proof and I usually don’t weigh in what the other team does when talking about players of his caliber. However, the Heat have been excellent at defending the point guard position this year and especially the past two weeks. Factor in Lillard’s penchant for disappointing games and we have a high salary player that I don’t think I’m going to use tonight.
Would it surprise me if Lillard was still solid? Not at all but especially on DK, I’m going to have a hard time playing Dame ahead of Blake Griffin at virtually an identical price tag. On FD, he’s now the second highest priced point guard and I just would rather allocate my funds elsewhere since there’s plenty of viable options.
Honorable Mention – Reggie Jackson, Pistons
Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Shooting Guard
Top Play – Lou Williams, Clippers
I’m going to keep rolling with Williams as long as Danilo Gallinari is out, because the Clippers need the injection of offense. People might be underwhelmed by the game log from the last time out for Williams but keep in mind that he only played 21 minutes because the game didn’t stay close. I have a hard time believing that Walker and the returning Cody Zeller can smoke the Clippers so I’m betting on Williams seeing close to 30-32 minutes here.
He draws a rather nice matchup on top of those factors because the Hornets are giving up the fourth most DK and fourth most real points to shooting guards. Much like with Kemba, I want to attack spots where Williams can get points in a hurry and this seems like a great place to go to. In competitive games, the minutes have been spiked and the usage and FPPM for Williams is so sky-high, it’s hard to fail totally.
Honorable Mention – Alec Burks, Cavs
Fade – None
This was kind of my approach to point guard yesterday because there are not a lot of options on FD especially. CJ McCollum is expensive but he has been playing better and he technically draws the better matchup between he and Lillard. I have some trust issues with him after all of this season but I also can’t say he’s a full fade.
I’d rather not play Jimmy Butler or Andrew Wiggins either, but there are paths to success for both those players. On DK, I’m likely only playing one and moving onto the rest of my roster. On FD, my ideal pair would be Sweet Lou and Burks(provided he’s still in Cleveland and hasn’t been traded) because you unfortunately need two tonight. Anyone else is at a price point where it’s silly to say fade them, though I may not play a lot of them myself. It’s just a luck of the draw slate that provided so few options.
Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Small Forward
Top Play – Paul George, Thunder
I will say that if by some chance the Lakers make the Anthony Davis trade during the day, LeBron James is going to be one of the only Lakers on the roster and would take over as the top play here and probably of the whole slate. That does appear to be very unlikely so I’m sticking with George here because his price is still lower than Russell Westbrook on both sites(over $1,000 on DK) and he’s providing you with very similar stat lines almost every night.
They are very close in usage and FPPM on the season and there’s really not much of a reason that there should be that big of a disparity in salary between the two players. Even as Westbrook has rattled off six straight triple doubles, George has been right there in fantasy points alongside of him. That’s a pretty nice accomplishment and even though Orlando has been a good defensive team, I find myself not really caring with a player like George.
Honorable Mention – Kevin Knox, Knicks
Fade – Brandon Ingram, Lakers
This one has the potential to be a non-factor for the reasons listed above, but I would assume Ingram is still a Laker once tip rolls around. If he is, I’m likely not going to use him now that LeBron is back in the lineup. I’m not entirely convinced these two players mesh all that well together and Ingram draws a good defensive team on top of that.
When LeBron has been on the floor this year, Ingram has a 24 percent usage which seems like a pretty solid number. However, this is one of those times that the usage isn’t backed up by the FPPM because Ingram is down at 0.89 on the year. That’s just not enough to warrant playing him tonight and even though Indiana is on a back to back, that doesn’t mean they can’t play solid defense. If LeBron is in, Ingram is out of my lineups.
Honorable Mention – Justise Winslow, Heat
Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Power Forward
Top Play – Blake Griffin, Pistons
I find myself loving Griffin tonight in the Garden because there is just nobody really on the Knicks that will be able to guard him. With Griffin, you always get the added bonus of him touching the ball so much and he’s just such a big piece of the Detroit offense. The Knicks rank fifth worst against power forwards and it’s a really nice spot for Blake tonight.
I usually won’t veer from statistical analysis, but sometimes I do make exceptions and Griffin inside Madison Square Garden is one of them for me. It helps that the Knicks just stink and even though the rebounding might not be there against the newly acquired DeAndre Jordan, Griffin has plenty of other ways to get point production. The Pistons are flirting with not making the playoffs and Griffin is going to need to try to get them there.
Honorable Mention – Pascal Siakam, Raptors
Fade – Jaren Jackson Jr, Grizzlies
The Grizzlies are going to be short-handed tonight, which may lead some people to look towards Jackson as a nice mid-range play to get some minutes if they don’t want to pay for Marc Gasol or Mike Conley. I’m not going to be one of those players as I don’t think Jackson is worth the play tonight because I think he struggles with foul trouble tonight.
With Karl Anthony-Towns being an athletic big, I can really see Jackson having limited minutes as he might struggle a little bit against that type of player. Sure, he’s not going to guard KAT personally that much but there’s plenty of issues he can run into on a good night. I’ve struggled with Jackson all season long and won’t take the risk tonight.
Honorable Mention – Jerami Grant, Thunder
Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Center
Top Play – Myles Turner, Pacers
As usual, there’s plenty of ways to go with centers. You can pay for Joel Embiid against the Raptors and I think he has a really solid game. The absence of Jonas Valanciunas helps out Embiid too because JoVal weirdly plays Embiid really well. Nikola Vucevic is intriguing in GPP even in a tough spot because over the last 15 days, the Thunder have given up the fourth most DK points and second most real points to centers. I’m planning on sticking with Turner a lot on either site.
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There is typically concern about big men coming into the second half of a back to back but Turner actually doesn’t have those concerns based on the stats for this year. He’s played almost the same amount of minutes, scores the same amount of points and averages three more rebounds in an eight game sample. The Lakers have gotten smashed by centers all year long and Turner almost always comes in under owned.
Honorable Mention – Vucevic
Fade – Cody Zeller, Hornets
This might seem like a weir player to write up as a fade but I think he’s going to tempt players tonight since the Hornets draw the weak Clippers interior and the price is really low on Zeller. It should be low since he’s missed so much time with a hand injury, but that’s the catch. He’s missed so much time there almost has to be a minutes limit.
Even though it was just a broken hand(easy for me to say behind the laptop), his stamina can’t be right and he can’t be in game shape. If the Hornets say he’s going to play 25 minutes, I would change my tune to an extent since the Clippers are bottom 10 in paint rebounds and points given up. Given he’s likely more towards the 15-18 minute mark, I’m not all that interested tonight.
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