NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Tuesday, February 5
Welcome to the Tuesday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy basketball line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Monday’s NBA DFS slate was dominated by the slates biggest stars as the duo of James Harden and Giannis Antetokounmpo combined for nearly 140 fantasy points as the only two players to eclipse 60 fantasy points and the most consistent pairing on FantasyDraft among the winning GPP lineups.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Tuesday Slate Overview and a Free Roll!
Before we jump into today’s NBA DFS action, our friends at FantasyDraft have been nice enough to offer up another $50 Picks and Pivots FREE ROLL with 10 tickets up for grabs into Wednesday’s NBA DFS contests. Get in now!
We have an 8 game loaded NBA DFS slate with tons of stars, lots of injuries and a whole lot of unknown as the Lakers and Knicks are two of the teams we have to sort through so get ready for some wild rotations, random benching and a whole lotta tilt.
Right off the top, the player pool tone is set with the Oklahoma City Thunder who have two of the top four players in terms of cost as Russell Westbrook ($20.4K) and Paul George ($18.7K) will take their streak of six straight games with 50+ fantasy points each to their home court where the Orlando Magic come to town.
Now, this game just happened a few games ago where Westbrook and George combined for 122 fantasy points which even at this salary today would return over 3x value at their nearly combined $40K price tag.
LeBron James ($19.1K) looks likely to return to the court after he needed a night off (3 minutes after lock) against the Warriors on Saturday with a tough road match-up against a strong Pacers defense. The Lakers right now are a team that on a slate this large, I am going to simply ignore as the tough match-up and the absolute unknown heading into the trade deadline means you are taking risk building around anyone here and that includes Mr. Load Management himself. With the trade deadline just a few days away and seemingly everyone on the block in an effort to get Anthony Davis, your guess is as good as mine who Luke Walton plays here tonight.
Stepping back and looking at this slate, it is interesting that 5 of the 8 games have totals of 220 or lower and there is only one game on the entire slate where both teams see a projected pace boost (more on that in a minute).
As such, even with a ton of stars and a lot of injury news which should open up value, the “must have” game environments seem to be harder to find on a slate of this size.
NBA DFS – Core Game Stack:
When looking at this slate, there is a game that has the highest total (228), a tight spread (4.5), the fastest projected pace, the only game where both teams see a projected pace boost and a player pool that has the perfect blend of star power and in-game value to make it primed for stacking. Welcome to Philadelphia/Toronto my friends.
This will be the fourth meeting of this potential Eastern Conference Finals preview and interestingly enough, we have not yet had a game yet this season that has ended within a single digit point spread. Tonight the big news is that the Raptors will likely be without Kyle Lowry who missed their last game and sat out practice on Monday, while the Sixers will remain without Wilson Chandler in their frontcourt.
With Lowry sidelined, Fred Van Vleet ($8.8K) will step into the starting lineup after dropping 31 fantasy points against the Clippers and at this price point, is one of the first men into your builds tonight – the price is flat-out too cheap.
UPDATE – As of 10AM EST, Kyle Lowry is now saying he WILL play which certainly throws a monkey wrench into these plans as it kills FVV value and will mean a usage hit to both Kawhi/Siakam. Lowry at only $13.6K is reasonably priced considering he just dropped 40 on this Sixers team last time they played and assuming he has no issues from a minutes restriction, could be easily added into a game stack here.
Over the last month, with Lowry and Jonas Valanciunas off the court – the two biggest beneficiaries on Toronto have been Kawhi Leonard ($17.2K) and Pascal Siakam ($12.7K) who are each sporting a 32% usage rate with 1.6 FP/M and 1.2 FP/M marks respectively. The Sixers overall are a top 5 defensive in terms of Def-Eff, but they rank 25th in the league in defending the PF position which makes Siakam a great mid-range option to pair with Kawhi who simply be a usage monster in this spot with the Raptors being short-handed.
The Sixers will likely have J.J. Redick back after resting over the weekend which means their Core 4 starting unit will be healthy and ready to rock for this one. In the last two meetings with Toronto, Jimmy Butler ($13.7K) and Ben Simmons ($16.1K) have alternated 50+ fantasy point outings while Joel Embiid ($19.1K) has remained relatively quiet, with 36 and 46 fantasy points.
Stacking all three of the Sixers stars is not normally a route I want to go as they tend to cap each others upside, but in a game stack situation here tonight, I think there is merit to simply building a high floor/high ceiling trio that you know will drive the large majority of fantasy production in the best game environment on the board.
One of the reasons this game becomes stackable is that you have obvious value within this game with players like Van Vleet and Mike Muscala ($6.4K) who stepped into Wilson Chandler‘s PF role last game out. Muscala was limited to only 18 minutes against the Kings, but with the Raptors having some size up front with Ibaka/Siakam, we could see Muscala draw more significant court time here tonight.
With these two teams separated by less than 4 games in the Eastern Conference and a National TV game on tap tonight on TNT, this is the kind of game where I think the stars come out and put on a show and with so much value, stacking this game becomes a route that feels like a high floor/high ceiling combination that utilizes the in-game value to make it fit.
NBA DFS – Pivot Plays and Value:
With the early news that Kyrie Irving will be out against the Cavaliers tonight, it means another night of Terry Rozier ($12.5K) who although priced up for his starting role, remains a player with significant profit potential even still.
Rozier is going to be making his third start in his last six games, with his previous starts coming against Charlotte, Brooklyn and this same Cavs team he will face tonight. In those previous three outings, Rozier has put up 38, 47 and 48 fantasy points which means he has gone for 3.7X in two of those three starts which again proves the profit potential that remains even in this elevated price tag.
If you are looking for a leverage play, Brad Wanamaker ($6K) is an interesting punt, as the backup guard who saw 20 minutes of court time and racked up 21 fantasy points the last time they played the Cavs but this is a large field GPP option only.
One play I found myself landing on Sunday when looking for some value on a three game slate was Daniel Thies ($7.1K) who has put up 19 and 21 fantasy points in his last two games. One of the reasons I think you can go back to this spot today is that the Celtics remain incredibly short-handed up front – with Aron Baynes out for the next few weeks and Robert Williams questionable with an injury.
Assuming Williams is out again, Thies is a nice low-owned punt play that is game script proof – as he will get run as the primary back-up big man in a close game and would likely see all the run if/when this game against Cleveland gets ugly. Theis played as the direct back-up to Al Horford on Sunday against the Thunder, playing the entirety of his minutes as the second team Center and with a similar role looking likely tonight, I love the idea of pairing him with Rozier in an advantageous match-up against a poor Cavs defense.
NBA DFS – Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:
Please Note – this sample lineup is meant to be illustrative only and should not be used as a Plug and Play lineup.
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G: Ben Simmons
G: Terry Rozier
F/C: Joel Embiid
F/C: Kawhi Leonard
F/C: Pascal Siakam
UTIL: Mike Muscala
UTIL: Daniel Thies
Slate Overview: To me this slate is going to be centered around the Sixers/Raptors game as a game environment that checks every single box for me – high total, close spread, fast pace and a handful of stars with slate breaking ceilings that can easily be paired with the in game value/usage due to injuries on both sides.
With clear value already in Boston and likely more to come with a slate of this size just days away from the trade deadline, I think getting in multiple studs is a requirement and this Sixers/Raptors game gives you the ability to pair 2-3 quite easily with a strong mid-tier of guys like FVV and Siakam. If Lowry is ruled in, I would feel comfortable pivoting to him in a game stack build and pairing him with Kawhi to get all the Raptors usage.
Enjoy the slate all – get into that FREE ROLL and let’s have ourselves a night!
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