Good day and greetings from your NCAA basketball best bets to win host and value gambler. We’ve got 4 games on this Wednesday schedule looking like strong plays.
For those seeing this for the first time, I will be giving NCAA basketball best bets for the upcoming days games having written this article the night before. The lines I quote are the live lines at the time of writing, and if the line mentioned here is significantly worse for you then consider it a no bet.
Lines are very important and are key to the value plays. On average, 1 out of every 14 games moving at least 1 1/2 points from the opening number will land (the final score will be within the line move) so we want to make sure to get the proper number.
Disregard any play that is significantly off the number listed, has an unexpected injury, or any other factor not known before the day of the game that would negatively impact our play. I am playing these games also and will tweet when I can find anything important.
Yesterday, Tuesday, we went 2-1 pushing the overall record to 51-36-1.
Analysis of every game consists of the number I make the game and the associated trends within the game, including and especially how the teams are currently playing.
Sometimes you will see a stat saying team X has covered 8/10, then upon examination you see that team lost the last 2 in a row. Stats can be a trap so I filter them out for you.
Having said that, let’s get to our NCAA basketball best bets. I will be going thru these games in time order; if the strength of the play deviates from the standard unit it will be pointed out as the game is discussed. All times Eastern. Here we go:
NCAA Basketball Best Bets To Win – Bears Roar
Baylor +3 versus Texas, 8 pm
Although Baylor has been on a great ATS run covering 9/10 while Texas losing 6/10 ATS (although they did win their last two), the linesmaker got the number right as far as power ratings are concerned.
However Baylor is still walloping their opponents to the number, have beaten the line in the last 2 games by a combined 57 points. Baylor has also covered 8/10 in the series, including the last 3 in a row. My play is on the Bears.
Georgia Southern -1 versus UL Lafayette, 8 pm
Both these teams are playing badly against the number. I make the game Georgia Southern 8 on a neutral court and I don’t see any evidence the home court should mean this much.
Wisconsin -3 versus Minnesota, 9 pm
This line is way off compared to the number I have which is Wisky by 10 and this should be an interesting test. Both teams are surging ATS with the Badgers doing even better. The only reason I can see this line is low is because Minnesota played at Wisconsin the beginning of January and won the game as a 9 point underdog.
I’m looking for the number to hold up here and Wisconsin to cover. We have seen many times a series concluded with each divisional team winning on the other’s home court.
Oregon -15 1/2 versus California, 9:30 pm
California is 5-16 straight up and winless away from home this season, and their ATS record is flooded with L’s. Oregon has their best ATS success covering larger spreads. Add that to I make the game the Ducks by 25 and it is solid enough for a play.