The Step Back 2019 NBA Draft Big Board: February Update

With conference play in motion, our updated draft board shows who is rising and falling in terms of NBA potential in the 2019 NBA Draft class.

The 2019 NBA Draft is now about four months away, and NCAA conference play is helping scouts identify the players who could follow up the top players that we have been excited about since August. Conference matchups have allowed us to see elite prospects against good NCAA competition, and have helped to suss out differences between similar prospects within the same conference. The big stage of March Madness looms, and while that is hailed as the proving ground where players can make or break their draft stock, this period is arguably more important for draft evaluation, giving us insight into the consistency and execution that will be important next year when the players are playing 82 games instead of 35. It’s nice to see Zion Williamson play De’Andre Hunter and Virginia, but making sure he brings it on a random Monday against a bad Notre Dame team is important, too.

The biggest updates since our last ranking have to do once again with injuries, as this year’s Draft crop has been marred by them. Bol Bol is now out for the season with a foot fracture, joining Darius Garland and Jontay Porter as potential top-ten picks on the shelf, and Sekou Doumbouya is still out with a thumb sprain over in France. However, more importantly, there was good news on this front – Kevin Porter (quad), Killian Tillie (ankle), Louis King (knee), and Tre Jones (shoulder) are all back in action and should be healthy for the home stretch. Porter in particular already looks fully functional, exciting news for the potential lottery prospect.

Below you will find our top 60 prospects to this point, broken into six tiers. Explanations for some of our biggest risers and droppers are provided, as well as some scouting nuggets on some players we haven’t touched on in depth yet.

Tier 1 — Potential Franchise-Changer

Williamson has a 3-point lead on every college basketball player since 2010-11 in Box Plus-Minus. He also hit 8-of-20 from 3 in January, and still provides at least one jaw-dropping athletic achievement per game. If anyone else is in the conversation for number one for you at this point, I would like to reiterate Jackson Hoy of the Stepien’s recommendation that you continue doing research on Zion. He’s in the Karl-Anthony Towns/Anthony Davis tier of elite prospects.

Tier 2 — Solid franchise building blocks with slim star potential

A tough decision given that Culver hits more qualifiers that likely matter in terms of becoming a quality rotation place, as he has versatility playing off ball, is a better finisher and is an infinitely better defender. But he also just shot 7-of-32 from 3 in January, and while Barrett’s not perfect in either aspect, he’s a much better shooting prospect and is the better passer, and just seems to be much more comfortable as a go-to guy on offense. He keeps the two-spot for now, but Culver’s burgeoning pick-and-roll passing and continued defensive excellence could easily be argued ahead of him. Either way, these are the other two players I feel very confident in as probable starters regardless of most possible team contexts.

Tier 3 — Home run swings and likely solid role players

Let’s talk point guards, given that my rankings differ from pretty much everywhere. Morant has been a massive riser throughout the season, sitting in many top fives, and he has risen six spots from our last update. He passes most statistical tests, and has real point guard skills, even if it looks like he’ll struggle out of the gate due to a thin frame and lack of defensive effort. The major hesitation is that shooting and finishing are such vital parts of even being a baseline point guard at the NBA level, and Morant’s not a guarantee to be strong in either area. His shooting mechanics definitely need work, and while he’s finishing well in the Ohio Valley Conference, it isn’t at an elite level, and there’s going to be a big jump to finishing in the NBA, even if he has the craft to succeed against teams like Auburn and Alabama with NBA-level athletes.

All three are going to be flawed point guards — Garland is undersized and needed to rely heavily on counter moves to finish at the college level, and White is rail thin like Morant. However, White is the player I think has the best shot to both shoot and finish at a high level — his frame will allow him to add more strength than the other two, he is on par with Morant as a passer, and his speed and ability to transfer momentum into his pull-up likely gives him the highest ceiling as a functional shooter. Throw in that he’s both the furthest along in defensive fundamentals and has the best shot at being a functional switch defender (Again, being 6-foot-5 helps), and he’s ahead of the others for now.

Hayes has continued his roll into conference play, looking like he has the best ceiling of any big in the class on defense. He’s up 18 spots because he is one of the best upside plays available.

The Virginia Tech game was good for Little, but we need to see consistency, and that has not been there at all this year.

Neither of Williams or Clarke is particularly enticing on paper — the former is a 6-foot-5 power forward, the latter is a skinny big that can’t shoot and is 22-years old. But both are absolutely lottery-level talents in this class. Williams’s ceiling is as a super-Jae Crowder, a versatile switching forward that can defend fives, with brilliant passing and a functional jumper. Clarke, meanwhile, has improved his shot and is an elite finisher, and he’s an Ibaka-style destructive force on defense, looking like a real rim protector because of his advanced technique. And remember that all-time BPM list that Zion was leading? Clarke is third.

Both could unlock a variety of effective lineup possibilities thanks to their versatility, and their awareness and intelligence are a step above pretty much anyone else in the class. At a bare minimum, they should be positive situational defenders, but they should be a lot more.

Porter is probably better than what he’s shown at USC because of the injury and conflicts with coaches about how he handled said injury, but there just isn’t the body of work to earn the lottery projection he is getting many places.

Tier 4 — Probable situational role players

At this point in the draft, we’ve pretty much exhausted the high-level upside, and this is the tier where quality role players are more plentiful and likely more valuable. This tier focuses on the players that look like safe bets to fill necessary roles. There are upside shots left, but they come later.

One of the biggest risers of this month, Thybulle’s performance in Washington’s excellent start to PAC-12 play has him back where he started the year on this board. Another high-IQ player that projects to be at least a situational defensive player, and at best a true impact 3-and-D wing, Thybulle is defying the conventions of the 2-3 zone wing. He’s going to be solid if he gets a chance.

Tier 5 — Projects and High-risk Prospects

All three of these guys could arguably be in Tier 4, but have limitations that give pause. Brazdeikis has physical tools that project to him being more of a Euroleague success than an NBA one. Reaves is Thybulle but four inches shorter. And Bitadze may just settle in as a strong Euroleague center given the contracts he could get from elite teams there.

Gafford is this year’s Troy Brown — it seems like he’s quit in terms of effort level, and it’s hard to tell how much that matters for his long-term projection given that motor was one of his strengths. If he shows signs of life again, he’s probably a tier three talent, but that’s definitely not a sure thing.

Jaxson Hayes without the name recognition. Queta’s raw and probably not coming out this year, but he’s a first-round talent whenever he does, especially if he grows as a passer.

Another big riser here as Claxton is a double-double machine with passing instincts and a handle that could help him be more than just a situational big at the next level. He destroyed Gafford in their matchup last week, and that does carry some water even if Gafford’s running on empty.

Bitadze is getting all of the hype in the Euro circles, but Zoosman is quietly playing rotation minutes with surging Maccabi Tel Aviv. He’s a lot like Brazdeikis in that he’s a subpar athlete but makes up for it with his touch and awareness on both ends.

Neither of these two looks 100% healthy yet after injury. Check back in a month.

41/19/62 shooting splits for the month of January are decidedly not great. Dort has an archetype that finds its way into the NBA, but he just doesn’t have the statistical production to back it up right now, and his jumper is a mess. He’s one of this update’s biggest droppers, falling out of the tail of the lottery.

He looks like he should be writing about the draft, but Teske’s hands and energy on offense pair with a rim protection ability that could make him into a nice backup big at the next level. He’s quietly been Michigan’s second-best draft prospect over the past month.

Tier 6 — Low-confidence lottery tickets

This tier’s about 40 players deep, as always. Names are mostly interchangeable.

Another player making the rounds and getting buzz because of his size and potential as an on-ball scorer. I see him more as a stretch-4 type that could defend 3s because he’s not a great functional athlete for his size. That’s why he’s much lower on this board than many others have him.

These four — Grimes, Poole, Dosunmu, and Johnson — are all enticing because of their raw potential as creators, but none inspire a ton of confidence. Poole is probably the most polished of the four; Dosunmu is probably the safest bet to translate; Grimes is the most likely to come out; and Johnson has the highest ceiling. At least a couple of these guys are probably 2020 Draft prospects.

I was late to the party on recognizing Shittu’s massive flaws as a defender. His offensive game looks like it will be valuable in the NBA, but he has minimal stock right now because he doesn’t understand basic tenants of defense.

37-of-90 3s in January. Magee is the best shooter in the draft and he’d be a first rounder if he were 6-foot-6.