2019 Fantasy Baseball Rankings Analysis: Who is Over/Under Valued?
By Joe Metz
With the NFL season officially over now that the Super Bowl is behind us, we can finally look ahead to baseball season! With the first pitchers and catchers reporting in less than one week, now is the perfect time to start your preliminary fantasy baseball research and dig into our Fantasy Baseball Rankings!
The NFL is behind us and the NBA All-Star Break is right around the corner and that means so is the MLB season. With MLB comes tailgates, warm weather and of course, fantasy baseball which means a whole new year of Fantasy Baseball Rankings!
While fantasy football is undoubtedly the king of fantasy sports, I feel that many would be surprised to see just how many individuals are invested in fantasy baseball, whether that be season-long or daily formats.
With that being said, this article will be geared more towards the season-long crowd but also just baseball fans in general. Earlier this week, ESPN released their first batch of 2019 Fantasy Baseball rankings, listing their top 300 overall players. My goal with this article is to analyze the first third of those rankings and find a handful of players that I feel are being either under or over-valued heading into the first wave of drafts.
I have broken the article down by tier, going from ranks 1-20, 21-40, 41-60, 61-80 and 81-100, with their individual rankings following their names in parenthesis. I chose to focus on analyzing the top third of the rankings as these are the most dominant players in the sport and ones where if you reach on a player, it could prove costly and if you buy low on the right stud, he could take you to a title.
Without further ado, let’s welcome in the baseball season and look at the first pair of under/over valued players.
Fantasy Baseball Rankings – Who is Under/Over valued in the Top 20?
Under Valued – Christian Yelich (9), MIL
What more does Yelich need to do to get the full respect he deserves? He won the NL MVP in his first season with the Brewers, led the NL in batting average, finished 2nd in RBIs and 3rd in HRs, yet he barely cracks the top 10? Ridiculous.
I expect his ADP to be higher than 9 and for good reason. He set a career high in just about every offensive category and provides immense value in every category a fantasy player needs. The most encouraging part of his 2018 season to me, however, was his 47.6% hard-contact%. He smashed his previous career high of 38% and this gives him a solid security when chasing players for extra base hits and home runs. If the NL MVP falls to you at 9, consider it a steal.
Over Valued – Trea Turner (8), WAS
I’m going to be honest here, I don’t fully understand this ranking. While Turner has topped 40 steals in consecutive seasons and topped 100 runs scored last year, the rest of his stats last season do not at all scream top-10. On top of that, he posted a career-low 0.143 ISO last season and a career-low 0.416 SLG% (excluding 2015 where he only had 40 ABs).
If he continues to trend in the direction he has been after last season, we can expect a bump in HRs to the 20-25 range, but I don’t expect another 103 runs scored, especially considering he won’t have Bryce Harper a few spots behind him in the lineup.
He’s a top-5 SS for the 2019 season without a doubt, and frankly top-3 at that, but I wouldn’t feel confident drafting him in the top 10 overall.
Fantasy Baseball Rankings – Top-20 Talent at a Discount
Under Valued – Carlos Correa (40), HOU
While he’s missed 105 total games over the last two seasons, 2018 was truly a season to forget. He finished with career lows in batting average (0.239), ISO (0.167), and wOBA (0.313).
While recency bias will have the masses avoiding him in early rounds, I wouldn’t be so quick to make that mistake. In 2017, Correa posted a 0.315/0.391/0.550 triple slash line with 24 home runs, 84 RBIs and 82 runs scored. These are elite numbers, especially when you couple them with the 0.235 ISO and 0.394 wOBA he posted.
Should he stay healthy, Correa could end up being a massive steal if he’s draft towards the end of the third round or beginning of the fourth round.
Over Valued – Starling Marte (28), PIT
Similar to Correa, Marte is a player that has had his fair share of injury struggles throughout his career. One year after missing 85 games in 2017, Marte doubled his games and played 145 in 2018. He set a career high in HRs (20) and posted 72 RBIs and 81 runs scored. His 33 stolen bases were also a massive perk to his stock.
So, why is he over-valued? For being ranked 28th overall, the numbers above seem more mediocre than phenomenal. In the OF alone, he’s ranked above the likes of Juan Soto, Andrew Benintendi, Kris Bryant (dual eligibility), Rhys Hoskins and more. I would take all 4 of those players over Marte with confidence, especially given both his injury history and the lack of assets around him in the lineup.
Fantasy Baseball Rankings – Get Used to Ozzie Albies
Under Valued – Ozzie Albies (51), ATL
Albies quickly emerged as not only one of the most exciting players in baseball last season, but one of the elite second basemen in the league as a rookie. In his 158 games last season, he posted 24 home runs, 72 RBIs, 105 runs scored and a 0.191 ISO and 0.324 wOBA.
Being a switch-hitter only helps his case as well, seeing as the Braves new Suntrust Ballpark is one of the friendliest parks in the MLB for left-handed hitters. This was rather apparent, as we saw 16 of his 24 home runs come as a left-handed batter, but the majority of his HRs actually being away from home.
Albies will again bat atop an order with Ronald Acuña, Freddie Freeman and other young stars, so we could truly see his production continue to rise as these young players get more and more ABs. At such a thin position, he’s a sure-fire bet to outperform his current ranking of 51.
Over Valued – Eddie Rosario (58), MIN
I’m rather bullish on the Twins in general this season and while Rosario had quite an impressive season last year, I cannot get on board with this generous ranking.
He posted 24 home runs and 77 RBIs in 138 games last season but his lack of patience at the plate (5.1% walk rate) was a bit concerning. He doesn’t have many assets around him that give me hope that the numbers will continue to improve, although the addition of Nelson Cruz has some thinking otherwise.
I am not against drafting Rosario, but when he’s sandwiched between players like Jean Segura (56), Vlad Guerrero Jr. (60), Corey Seager (61) and even Marcell Ozuna (67), I would rather draft some of those players, especially given how deep his position is (OF).
Fantasy Baseball Rankings – An Under-appreciated Asset
Under Valued – Eugenio Suarez (63), CIN
When it comes to fantasy baseball and DFS, I may have an irrational obsession with Eugenio Suarez, but I genuinely believe he’s one of the most underrated players in the league. He head a career year last season, posting a 0.283 average with 34 home runs, 104 RBIs, 79 runs and a 0.243 ISO with a 0.376 wOBA.
Given the Reds’ moves this offseason, it’s safe to say he’ll be batting in the middle of a hearty lineup with the additions of Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp from the Dodgers. His positional ranking (3B8) is not too far off from where I’d peg him (I’d bump him up one above Anthony Rendon), but the overall ranking is what irks me.
I would gladly draft Suarez in the 4th-5th round with the confidence that he should shatter his ADP and current ranking.
Over Valued – Nelson Cruz (65), MIN
I hit on the Twins in general briefly in my blurb about Eddie Rosario, but I genuinely do not believe the change of scenery here is going to do Cruz many favors. He goes from having some really gifted offensive players ahead of him (Segura, Cano, Haniger), to batting ahead of Eddie Rosario and frankly, other players who we aren’t quite sure of yet.
While the lineup change is worrisome in itself, the other two key factors here are the ballpark and father time. Target Field ranked in the bottom third of the league in HR Park Factor last season, as it was one of the more pitcher-friendly parks in the MLB. In addition to that, Cruz enters 2019 in his age-38 season and while his surface stats were still in line with his career averages (HR, RBI, etc.), his batting average and wOBA dropped over 20 points last season, raising some concern.
I wouldn’t mind Cruz in the later middle-rounds of a draft, but the fact that he’s ranked ahead of players like Matt Carpenter (70), Miguel Andujar (74) and AJ Pollock (84) is ridiculous.
Fantasy Baseball Rankings – Strikeouts for the Low!
Under Valued – Mike Foltynewicz (95), ATL
Okay, I’ll admit it, Foltynewicz is only one season removed from being a pitcher that I used to target with left-handed batters in daily fantasy formats, but that was certainly not the case last season.
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He posted career-best marks in wins, strikeouts, ERA, FIP, xFIP, and HR/9, all extremely vital stats from a fantasy perspective. Not only did he set career marks in these categories, he absolutely obliterated previous marks. His K/9 went up over a full strikeout, his Hr/9 went from 1.17 to 0.84 and his ERA fell almost 2 points (from 4.79 to 2.85).
While many may question the sustainability of these numbers, the pitcher-friendly ballpark and the high-octane offense backing him up are two forms of insurance to settle the stomach. If he falls to me at 95, you bet your a** I’m pulling the trigger.
Over Valued – Edwin Encarnacion (96), SEA
Encarnacion has long been a viable asset in fantasy baseball and I don’t think this season will be any different, but I think regression has started to show its effects last season.
He saw a massive drop in batting average (-12 points), ISO (-17 points), and wOBA (-27 points) while also seeing a 2.9% spike in his strikeout rate. Last year was not the first season that we’ve seen some decreasing rates for Encarnacion either, showing that age may be catching up to him.
In addition the regression hitting him, Encarnacion was shipped out of the high-octane Indians offense and inserted into a question mark offense in the Mariners, where I fully expect his production to continue to dip. He may be a serviceable player in the 12th-13th round, but there’s no way I’d touch him within the top 100 picks.
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