Fantasy Basketball Top Plays and Fades, Wednesday February 6

Welcome into the Wednesday edition of Fantasy Basketball Top Plays and Fades! We have seven games tonight and this slate looks like a star studded blast as it stands.

Even with only seven games, there are so many directions we can go tonight. Up top, you have some of the big guns like James Harden, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Nikola Jokic all in fantastic spots to choose from. We don’t have a ton of value as things stand past the Spurs. I have issues even using them because they are sitting DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge so that game should be a blowout. I also think there’s a couple teams that I’m close to just wiping off the slate to narrow down the options. Let’s go to work with our Fantasy Basketball Top Plays!

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Point Guard

The matchup might look fairly average, but over the past 15 days the Spurs have gotten smashed by point guards. They’re up to the third worst against the position and the ninth most real points in that time frame. The Spurs are respectable against the three point shot but none of that really matters when we’re talking about Curry. You can make the argument you don’t need him in FanDuel, but on DraftKings is is quite cheap.

*Thanks a lot, Gregg Popovich. He’s sitting the entire team basically and that news came out right as I finished writing this so while that amps up the opportunity for Curry, there’s about a 0.0000772 chance that this game remains close. He’s the definition of GPP only, with Paul being much safer

Honorable Mention – Chris Paul, Rockets

Fade – De’Aaron Fox, Kings 

The Kings are really turning into a fun team and one of the key pieces has been Fox. I can’t get behind playing him too much, if at all tonight because the cagey veteran CP3 lurks on the other side of this game. He’s still a quality defender and even in a game that should be up and down with a lot of scoring chances, this play would be dangerous as the price is slightly elevated for Fox.

He’s been excellent these past two games and this game is one of the better ones on the slate to target. Still, I would find cheaper elements of it before I went to Fox. Is Paul as good as he used to be? Not really, but Fox is still so young that I think Paul gets the better of him. On the season, Houston is the second best team against point guards. Since he’s the most expensive King, I’ll likely leave him on the sidelines tonight.

Honorable Mention – Tomas Satoransky, Wizards

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Shooting Guard

Top Play – Tim Hardaway Jr., Mavericks 

I always have mixed feelings when Hardaway is on my radar because I basically assume he’s going to let me down. While Brian does the dance of joy reading the rest of the blurb, I will clarify and say that I much prefer THJ on DK. He’s under $5,000 and it’s tough to see him completely flop at that price tag. We may not know exactly what the new role is in Dallas but we know one thing for sure- he’s no longer the primary option and that might actually help.

With Luka Doncic running the team for the rest of the season, it’s the dawn of a new era and Hardaway will be no better than second fiddle. There’s nothing wrong with that because he’s likely better served as the secondary option so all he has to worry about is getting buckets. That’s what I think he’s going to do and the Hornets are not anything to fear defensively. Throw those shots up, Hardaway.

Honorable Mention – Buddy Hield, Kings

Fade – Luka Doncic, Mavericks

We’re not going far at all to pick the fade and this pains me to say it. Doncic is my go to player and I think I’ll still sprinkle some in but DK reacted properly to his new role and has priced him up significantly. I think $9,500 is fair and just where Doncic is going to live for the rest of the season, but there’s risk without knowing how the new players mesh and at that price, he could submarine your entire lineup.

The Hornets aren’t anything that we have to worry about matchup wise against the point guard position, which should be pretty much how Doncic plays the rest of the way. As mentioned above, I think Hardaway might fit nicely and you could even argue that losing DeAndre Jordan will change the pace and the style of the offense as well. I tend to be a little more cautious in these situations so I will not be all in on Doncic like I was the last game.

Honorable Mention – Donovan Mitchell, Jazz

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Small Forward

Top Play – Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks 

We have a fairly large spread in this game and that is a legitimate concern. However, if the Bucks do in fact run the Wizards off the court, the Greek Freak should be at the center of those efforts. Even in the thrashing of the Nets this past game, Antetokounmpo only played 32 minutes and still flirted with 70 DK points. On FD, the position isn’t the greatest tonight to a high/low approach might be the way to go and you just pair the Freak with a punt-style player.

The Wizards represent a fantastic matchup, which shouldn’t come as a surprise since they aren’t a good team. Antetokounmpo should be able to have his way in the painted area, as Washington is in the bottom three in paint points and rebounds given up, both of which fit what Antetokounmpo does best. He sits at 6.5 paint touches a game and that’s more than enough to convert some opportunities. You can argue he’s the best play on the slate, but that honor goes elsewhere in my opinion tonight.

Honorable Mention – Keep an eye on the Warriors. I have a feeling that Steve Kerr might sit someone, which would put Kevin Durant right up there as well, provided he doesn’t sit.

Fade – Rudy Gay, Spurs 

This could be a little bit of a risk, depending on how the day unfolds. With the Spurs resting their two best players, Gay does inherit a 31.2 percent usage and 1.39 FPPM in a 150-ish minute sample size. The potential is he becomes a chalky option since he’s at a price tag that accounted for the Spurs fielding a full team, but since they’re not he could be a bargain. I’m not sure I’m going to attempt playing him in GPP’s if I think he’s chalky.

The line currently is unavailable but it was at 11 before the Spurs rested their guys. It’s going to skyrocket to at least 15 if not more and I tend to side with Vegas in this spot. Golden State is going to crush this version of the Spurs and it’s not hard to imagine Gay being one of the first guys off the floor here. Popovich has clearly waved the white flag on this game and I think Gay carries far too much risk for my tastes, despite some of the other measurables in his favor.

Honorable Mention – Kelly Oubre, Jr., Suns

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Power Forward

Top Play – Marvin Bagley, Kings 

I have absolutely no idea what DK was thinking when they priced Bagley on this slate but I’m going to take full advantage of it tonight. Over the past three games, Bagley has played 28, 31 and 33 minutes and in turn produced 37, 33 and a whooping 55 DK points. Now, I don’t expect another 50 spot from the young man tonight but here’s the catch – DK only raised his price by $300 and you’re only looking for about 35 to hit 6x.

The rookie is proving that while Doncic should have been picked ahead of him, it’s not like the Kings got a bad player. Bagley has progressively gotten better this season and given the struggles the Rockets have had in the paint since the loss of Clint Capela, he seems about as safe as they come for players in his role. I would be surprised if he suddenly got under the 28-30 minute mark because he’s been producing so well. Bagley is massively mispriced and I’m virtually all in.

Honorable Mention – Kenneth Faried, Rockets 

Fade – Bobby Portis, Bulls 

I like this play even less if Julius Randle is active for this tile but regardless of Randle, I have a tough time paying the premium for Portis on FD. DK makes a bit more sense because he’s still under $6,000(I’m certainly not playing him over Bagley) and the Pelicans are a terrible defensive team. Portis could clean up if he would play 30+ minutes like he did the last game but that seems like such an unrealistic benchmark that I’m not trusting it.

Portis is actually the leader on the Bulls in FPPM on the season at 1.12 and he’s typically efficient enough that I would be fine with him in this matchup but I have other priorities at the position tonight. I already feel like he could bite me a little bit, but the bottom line is you have to whittle down all your options to eight or nine players. I just think a 22-25 minute Portis sets you up for some disappointment.

Honorable Mention – Jeff Green, Wizards

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Center

Top Play – Nikola Jokic, Nuggets 

I might not play a lot of Luka Doncic tonight, but I can soak in every single share of Big Honey himself. The spot couldn’t get much better, as the Nets are the third worst team against centers giving up the third most point and rebounds while adding in the seventh most assists for good measure. So a team that is already terrible at letting big men assist on a basket get the best passing big man in the game? There’s only one way for this to end and I think the Joker is the top play on the slate tonight.

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The first time these two teams met, Jokic went for 37 points and 21 rebounds. Don’t worry though because the Nets held him to just three assists. My pipe dream is that some casual players get freaked that he had a rare poor game last time out, but I would doubt that to the highest order. We target this matchup with any center of mild reputation and now they have to stop one of the best. I don’t care who’s in or out tonight, make your lineup sweet with Big Honey.

Honorable Mention – Jahlil Okafor, Pelicans

Fade – None 

This slate is a little bizarre for a seven gamer because usually we’d be stocked to the gills with good options. I’m not 100 percent sure that’s true, but the remaining centers all have some positives and negatives that keep them in consideration. A quick rundown looks like this –

Rudy Gobert – Matchup is fantastic, but the price is high and the blowout concern spikes if Devin Booker is out

DeMarcus Cousins – He should still get his minutes to get his conditioning and everything else back. Plus, who stops him on the San Antonio side?

Deandre Ayton – Closest thing I would get to a fade, but he’s priced so low and he plays good minutes even in blowouts

Brook Lopez – Great bounce back spot against a poor opponent

After that, we’re kind of in the punt/if they fit in your build kind of players. I think any center should be considered tonight, even though I’m starting a lot of my lineups with Jokic and Bagley and building from there.

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