NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Wednesday, February 6
Welcome to the Wednesday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy basketball line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Tuesday’s NBA DFS slate was dominated by the star power as Joel Embiid, Kemba Walker and the Thunder Buddies of Russell Westbrook and Paul George all put up 60+ fantasy points and the common theme was winning lineups had two of these players. Tuesday’s slate was a great reminder of what pre-Trade Deadline NBA looks like as we got late word that a Marc Gasol trade to Charlotte was imminent which quickly led to Gasol, Joakim Noah and Jamychael Green being ruled out which pushed a player like Ivan Rabb from completely off people’s radar to one of the highest owned plays on the slate.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Wednesday Slate Breakdown:
One of the first and most critical things to point out tonight, is that this FantasyDraft NBA DFS slate starts at 8PM EST and includes only 6 games – this is important because they have opted to skip the 7:30PM EST game between the Nuggets and Nets. Normally when FantasyDraft has opted to stagger a start time, they have left off less desirable one-off games but in this case we miss out on Jokic versus Brooklyn which will likely be one of the more talked about plays on the slate. Understand the difference in slate dynamics when firing up FantasyDraft today as you cannot simply apply the same logic as a result of Jokic being off this slate.
Even without Nikola Jokic available in our player pool, this slate is LOADED with stars while also being chock full of value due to multiple injuries across tonight’s action. The Pelicans will continue to play their JV squad until this Anthony Davis trade is behind us with Elfrid Payton, Nikola Mirotic, Julius Randle and Anthony Davis all unlikely to play against the Bulls which will mean we continue with the Jrue Holiday/Jahlil Okafor show in New Orleans.
The Spurs are prepping for their big Wednesday Night national TV showdown on ESPN with the Golden State Warriors….by sitting LaMarcus Aldridge AND DeMar DeRozan. Yup, Pop gonna Pop. This game has a double-digit spread, one of three games in this 6 game slate that has a spread of double-digit points and frankly should be nothing more than a glorified scrimmage for the Warriors.
The only issue we have with simply crossing this game off, is that the Spurs now become the de-facto value spot on this slate, as ugly as they may seem. If we take LMA, DeRozan and Derrick White (injured) all off the court this season, Rudy Gay ($11.6K) stands out as an elite play with a 10% usage bump, sporting a 33% usage rate while putting up 1.6 FP/M.
Outside of Gay, no other Spurs player is priced over $9K, so mixing and matching guys like Bryn Forbes, Davis Bertans, Pau Gasol/Jakob Poetl are all viable routes as they have clear paths to major minutes. The only issue with this game and locking in guys like Gay/Gasol as examples – what happens when/if this game gets out of hand and Pop simply opts to sit his veterans – do these Spurs pieces end up getting to value?
NBA DFS – Studs at the Top:
Sitting at the top of the player pool tonight is James Harden ($22.9K) who is in the middle of a streak where he has gone for 70+ fantasy points in four of his last five games including a 72 FPT effort against the Suns the last time out.
This Rockets-Kings game has a slate high 233 total, a close spread (2.5 points) and the second fastest projected pace on the entire slate. Even with Chris Paul ($13.2K) back on the court for 30+ minutes, it was business as usual for The Beard, who sported a massive 43% usage rate against the Suns and with Eric Gordon sidelined, there was more than enough fantasy goodness to go around as Harden and CP3 combined for 110 fantasy points which would exceed 3x value even at these lofty price points.
The other big-ticket star on this slate is Giannis Antetokounmpo ($20.4K) who will take on the Wizards in the fastest projected pace game on the slate where the only “risk” here is really that the Wizards can keep this game close.
Giannis is an interesting case tonight in that we have more than enough value to fit him in, but the price frankly feels aligned to his ceiling games more than his actual performance. Since the beginning of January, Giannis has only gone for 60+ fantasy points in 4 games in 16 games which again, tells you we are paying for a ceiling game when he has been more likely to get us in the 50 fantasy point range.
Giannis has played the Wizards once this season, just a few days ago – when he played 33 minutes and racked up 54 fantasy points, further supporting the fact that this price may be a tick too high tonight.
The counter argument is that we have SO much value, even if you just stay in San Antonio, where you can fit in both Harden/Giannis and build a lineup that is anchored to the two stars on the slate. Locking in both big-ticket plays, leaves you $9.4K per player for the rest of your roster – if you choose to add in Rudy Gay and Davis Bertans (my two favorite Spurs as an example) – you still have $9.3K per player and you haven’t even touched the punt value like Pau Gasol and/or Jakob Poetl yet.
This is one of those path of least resistance kind of builds where you may be able to argue that Harden and Giannis are not “worth it” but it is tough to see a path where these two are not among the top raw points plays on the slate. With “easy” value staring at us in the face – there is a strong argument to just take the easy way out and go Stars/Scrubs tonight.
NBA DFS – Pivot Plays:
Oh no. No. No. No.
FantasyDraft is killing me. Killing me.
Are we really pricing Tim Hardaway Jr. down to $9.6K and thinking I won’t play him?
The Mavericks will have their newest additions available tonight and although the pregame notes show THJ coming off the bench, there is a clear path to a major role regardless and the price point is $2K cheaper than we saw him at with his time with Knicks just a few days ago.
Probable starters in Mavericks media notes for tomorrow's game against Charlotte: Doncic, Brunson, Kleber, Barnes, Finney-Smith.
— Brad Townsend (@townbrad) February 5, 2019
Soon, maybe tomorrow, I would expect Tim Hardaway Jr. to start in backcourt with Doncic. Hardaway started all 46 of his games as a Knick this season.
The Hornets are a team that struggles with wing players and THJ already has had two strong games against Charlotte this season with 35 and 37 fantasy points as a member of the Knicks. The Mavericks are clearly a team built around Luka Doncic, but there is going to be volume here for a shooter like THJ as we saw a player like Wes Matthews in a similar role here prior to the trade with 30 minutes and double-digit shot attempts on a nightly basis.
This is a price play for me – one I know I should approach with caution but I also recognize the path to a 3.5x type ceiling game. At this sub $10K price point, THJ would need 33 fantasy points, so there is ample profit potential at this level and the hope is he get some clarity on his role prior to lock.
Maxi Kleber ($8.3K) is another player that feels far too cheap for the new look Mavericks, with DeAndre Jordan now in New York, Maxi is going to get the big man run and the Hornets are a team that he would seemingly be in perfect position to excel against. The Hornets are ranked 28th in the NBA in terms of Def-Eff against opposing Centers and we just saw Kleber drop 30+ fantasy points against the Cavs in his last start for Dallas.
The Hornets this year have shown a tendency to get slashed on the defensive end on the 2nd half of back to backs, seeing their defensive rating drop from 111 on normal rest to 115 on the tail end of back to back sets. This is such a great spot on paper for the Mavericks and even though tip-off is more than 12 hours away – I am already tilting about THJ. Damn you universe.
NBA DFS – Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:
Please note – this sample lineup is meant to be illustrative only and should not be used as a Plug and Play lineup.
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G: James Harden
G: Chris Paul
G: Tim Hardaway Jr.
F/C: Giannis Antetokounmpo
F/C: Rudy Gay
F/C: Davis Bertans
UTIL: Jakob Poetl
UTIL: Maxi Kleber
Slate Overview: The fact that FantasyDraft is kicking off their slate at 8PM EST and removing the Nuggets/Nets from the player pool, I think will make the builds here very different from what you will see on other sites where Nikola Jokic is the key play.
As a result of the crazy value in San Antonio, there is a very clear path to locking in the two top plays in the player pool in James Harden and Giannis Antetokounmpo and playing for the raw points here. As we saw last night on FantasyDraft, the winning lineups consistently are built with the raw point plays as priority – and using the under-priced value to make it work.
Go back to last night’s Pick and Roll ($25 GPP) winner as an example – “Tabby91” had Russell Westbrook, Joel Embiid and Kemba Walker in the same build – capturing three of the top raw point plays – and using the “obvious” value in Memphis to roster Ivan Rabb, Jaren Jackson and even Justin Holiday.
You can make a similar argument for this type of build tonight – substituting the “obvious” value in San Antonio for Memphis and getting in 2 players with 60-70 point ceilings in Harden/Giannis.
Remember – we are inching closer to the trade deadline so make sure you are watching the news, especially with a team like Charlotte who supposedly is close to a deal for Marc Gasol which may mean we get Charlotte late scratches with players that are headed to Memphis.
Also – it’s a THJ night, so what could be better.
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