Underdog NCAA Basketball Picks of the Day: Wednesday, February 6th

Disclaimer: I hate betting favorites and love finding value in the underdogs for my NBA and NCAA basketball picks, so this series is dedicated to finding the best underdog Moneyline value plays for the day.

Looking out over the slate of games for last night, there really weren’t any underdogs with solid value that I felt would be a good play (hence why no article – can’t be giving out picks I wouldn’t put my money on!). However, the college basketball gods once again never cease to surprise as we saw a potential tournament favorite Michigan State fall as well as #10 Marquette dropping a thriller.

Tonight we are back in action with a very solid slate of games primed with some solid upsets in the mid-major tier.

Underdog NCAA Basketball Picks

VCU Rams vs George Washington Colonials – 7:00pm ET

On paper, VCU looks like they should absolutely steamroll George Washington. With a 15-6 record (compared to 7-14 for the Colonials), VCU comes in as one of the hottest teams in the Atlantic 10.

VCU has made a name for themselves this year on the defensive side of the ball, boasting one of the best scoring defenses in the nation. However, they struggle mightily on the offensive side of the ball and shoot a troubling 42% from the field to go with 29% from deep.

Although Marcus Evans is the de-facto go to guy for the Rams, they don’t rely too heavily on him and instead utilize deep rotations to keep the team fresh on the defensive side of the ball. This strategy has led to heaps of success against weaker competition (which VCU has faced in spades, more on that in a second), but has proven to not offer enough offense to take down more well-rounded teams.

George Washington on the other hand is a team that is considerably better than their record may indicate. Despite sitting well below .500, the Colonials are a tough team to beat and find themselves in competitive games against some of the best competition the A-10 has to offer.

Similar in style to the Rams, George Washington looks to slow down the pace of the game and play through their defense. They don’t offer much of an offensive threat at all, but their defense regularly holds teams in the 60’s, giving them a chance to stay competitive despite the lack of offensive firepower.

George Washington has been sorely missing big man Arnaldo Toro and his presence on the glass, but the fact remains that all signs point to this being a trap game for the Rams. The Rams have made a living on beating up on weaker competition and have faltered whenever faced with a true test, a good indicator that this team is not as strong as they seem on paper. Couple that with the fact that this should be a low-scoring defensive battle on the road and you have the makings of an upset.

Give me the home team with a propensity to play to the level of the competition they face.

Underdog NCAA Basketball Picks: George Washington Colonials (+220)

Wichita State Shockers vs ECU Pirates – 7:00pm ET

Wichita State is NOT the same team we remember as tournament darlings from a few years back. The Shockers made the move to the American Athletic Conference last season but  despite a solid first year in the conference last year, the Shockers have been incredibly streaky so far this year.

Senior Markis McDuffie has taken a major step forward this year after the Shockers lost a heap of core contributors over the past 2 years. McDuffie is the Shockers entire offense and if he gets held in check, they don’t have a reliable bucket-getter to turn to. Even if he does go off against deep teams (like Cincinnati), sometimes that simply isn’t enough given the lack of depth across the rest of the roster.

ECU is similarly built to Wichita State in that they have one certified bucket-getter who they turn to for their offense. While McDuffie is probably the more polished offensive player, ECU’s Jayden Gardner crashes the boards with ferocity and creates a lot of easy second chance points for the Pirates.

Although Gardner struggles from outside, that isn’t necessarily the Pirates game plan and they prefer to pound the ball in the paint.

Although ECU doesn’t boast a drastically better defense compared to Wichita State, they do hold teams to lower shooting percentages from both the field and deep. Particularly, they do a great job at holding teams to shooting just 30% from deep. This should come in handy against the Shockers as they have a number of role players who can consistently knock down the deep ball.

The biggest factor for me taking ECU for the upset here is the simple fact that Wichita State has yet to win a game on the road all year. ECU, meanwhile, sits at a respectable 9-4 on their home court and usually post their best defensive performances of the year in Williams Arena.

This should be an ugly game from start to finish, but look for ECU to use their superior rebounding prowess to control the glass en route to the upset victory.

Underdog NCAA Basketball Picks: ECU Pirates (+215)

UNLV Rebels vs Boise State Broncos – 11:00pm ET

UNLV gets the distinct pleasure of being our only road underdog of the evening for tonight’s article as they take on the Boise State Broncos. Both teams have followed a similar trajectory on the season as they struggled in non-conference play before finding a bit of a groove and coasting to identical 5-4 records in MWC play.

UNLV isn’t the most talented team in the nation, but they play at an aggressive pace which has been extremely effective against teams outside of the top tier of MWC programs. They don’t have a go-to scoring option and instead move the ball around well, averaging over 13 assists per game.

Although not the offensive star of the show, Shakur Juiston is the key to the Rebels’ successes on the year. Juiston is a force on the boards and while his production has dipped slightly from last year, he still brings a matchup nightmare to any team he faces in the Mountain West.

Bucking the theme of the night, the Broncos actually try to play a different style of basketball compared to the Rebels. Boise is much more inclined to sit back and rely on their defense in order to pick up wins compared to the high pace attack the Rebels employ.

Justinian Jessup gives the Broncos a reliable outside shooter capable of hitting big momentum shifting shots when the Boise defense turns the game into an ugly affair. Outside of Jessup though, the Broncos offense has a tendency to stall as they don’t move the ball all that well and lack playmakers to consistently go out and get buckets.

The big key in this game is going to be who controls the glass. Boise should do a decent job at slowing down the Rebels, however don’t have the offensive weapons to truly open the game up.

The Broncos rebound well as a team, but don’t have someone with the motor or pedigree of Juiston attacking the boards. Moreover, UNLV boasts solid size and rebounding out of their bigs and should be in line to give the Broncos a tough day on the boards.

Look for (once again) a low scoring affair that should be a back and forth battle. Eventually, the physicality of UNLV should just be too much for the outmanned Broncos to withstand.

Underdog NCAA Basketball Picks: UNLV Rebels (+220)

That’s all for today’s underdog NCAA basketball picks. Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest NCAA basketball and DFS coverage each and every day!