FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Thursday 2/7 – LMA Returns to Rip City

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Thursday, 2/7

Welcome back to the Thursday edition of the FanDuel NBA Breakdown! I’m “Thunder Dan” and I love playing and writing about FanDuel NBA DFS. I’m ready, as always, to help you get your research started for tonight’s NBA DFS slate on FanDuel.

Tonight we have a 6-game slate on tap that locks at 7:00 and only one late game (San Antonio-Portland) which means hopefully we have starting lineups and all the injury info we need before the slate tips off.  We also have the trade deadline at 3:00 so we will have to monitor that news if there are some big deals made today.

"The FanDuel NBA Breakdown is a first look article that is intended to be a starting point for your cash game or GPP research for FanDuel NBA DFS."

My goal when I revamped the Breakdown was to create an all-inclusive article that gives you a place to start your research for FanDuel NBA cash games and GPPs.  When making my cash and GPP picks I always take into account salary, Vegas trends, ownership, and match-up and I always do my best to give you a clear rationale for why I believe each player makes a great GPP or cash target.

In order to win in NBA DFS, you have to be flexible with your roster construction and sometimes take things down to the wire before lock with late-breaking injury information. At the same time, I always warn against totally scrapping your original first look build, as sometimes the plays that you were on the night before or that morning end up still being the best plays on the slate.

As always, let’s take a quick look at our injury situation and Vegas information to give us a place to start our research.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: First Look

INJURY REPORT

OUT: Lonzo Ball, Derrick Rose, Tyus Jones, Derrick White, Reggie Bullock, Robert Covington, Omri Casspi, Wilson Chandler, Doug McDermott, Marc Gasol, Mo Bamba, Aaron Baynes

DOUBTFUL: Jeff Teague, Garrett Temple,

QUESTIONABLE: Josh Hart, Danilo Gallinari, Kyle Anderson, Jonathan Simmons, JaMychal Green, Jonas Valanciunas, Joakim Noah, Robert Williams

PROBABLE: LeBron James, J.J. Redick, Kyle Kuzma, Ivica Zubac

As far as trade news goes, Marc Gasol has been ruled out already as he’s rumored to be going to Charlotte, but teammate Mike Conley is another big name that’s been tossed around in some potential deals to contenders. The Lakers have made everyone other than LeBron available so any type of deal they make today would really impact their rotation for tonight’s game against the Celtics.

VEGAS INFO

The Spurs are the only team playing on a back-to-back but they rested their stars DeRozan and Aldridge last night against the Warriors.

We have only one game of six with a Vegas line set at the time of this article’s publishing. Due to the uncertainty that surrounds some of these teams at the trade deadline, we may not have that Vegas info until later in the day..

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Cash Game Core

Welcome to the cash game core plays section of the Breakdown!  I’ve been giving you a GPP core in the past, so instead, I wanted to provide you with a solid trio of players to start building your cash game lineups with tonight. I highly recommend playing cash games on a nightly basis to help build that bankroll.

LaMarcus Aldridge (8500)

LMA was rested last night against the Warriors as Coach Pop clearly wanted to have his stars ready for a big matchup with Portland tonight and was willing to concede a loss to GSW.  The matchup here for Aldridge is nice as Portland has struggled to defend power forwards this year and Aldridge should step right back into his 28% usage and 1.2 FPPM production this season.

Lou Williams (8200)

Unless Lou Will gets traded, he’s going to have to shoulder the scoring load for the Clippers tonight. FanDuel was wise to price him up as he’s now the most expensive shooting guard. However, I think it would be wise to plug him in and take the raw points at a fairly weak position. If Gallinari sits out, we’d be looking at a 37% usage and 1.58 FPPM for Williams which would not be wise to fade in cash games.

Jerryd Bayless (5700)

Bayless burned me pretty badly on Tuesday, but I think it would be a mistake to let recency bias prevent you from slotting him into your cash lineups. Rose and Jones are out again and Jeff Teague is listed as doubtful, meaning Bayless would be in line for another 35+ minutes in a solid matchup against the Magic.

Serge Ibaka (6700)

Ibaka just continues to roll along, scoring 35 FD points in only 27 minutes in his last game. We would need to hear that Jonas Valanciunas is out again for me to feel confident enough to lock him into cash lineups but he’s still too cheap for the type of per-minute production that he offers, especially against Atlanta in a pace-up spot for the Raptors.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Top GPP Plays

For tournament plays, I’m looking for more than just 5x. I’m looking for 6-7x or more and we really want to chase those players with high ceilings, not just floors. We also want to take some risks on players that we think we can get at lower ownership than the chalkier cash game plays.

Terrence Ross (5500)

Will Ross get dealt to a contender today?  His name has been tossed around in some rumors and plenty of teams would love to acquire his sharpshooting skills. If he ends up staying in Orlando, then he’s an elite GPP play at this price, considering he’s hot again and coming off another 40+ FD point outing. Other than one 8-point dud against the Nets, he’s been between 27-42 FD points in his last 6 games.

Jaren Jackson (6500)

Jackson has flashed some serious ceiling at times this season during his rookie year, including a 40 FD point outing last time out against the T-Wolves. With Gasol out of the lineup, he’s a 1.1 FPPM player and has a 23% usage rate. His value comes his ability to contribute in multiple different stat categories and upside in steals/blocks is what makes him so appealing at this price.

Myles Turner (7700)

I’m going right back to Turner again tonight. He had a great night against the Lakers cut short by a blowout on Tuesday, but still managed to score 22 actual points and block 4 shots in only 22 minutes. The Clippers have a team we targeted with centers all season long and I want to stay on Turner here while his price is still in the 7-8k range and he’s playing this well.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Value Plays

For our purposes here at the Breakdown, we classify players priced at 5000 or less as “value plays.” Identifying value has been crucial this year on FanDuel as the new “drop score” rule has forced us into playing a lot of “stars and scrubs” rosters in both cash and GPP formats.

Daniel Theis (3900)

I’m going back to Theis again tonight. He’s scored 20-22 FD points in his last three games when he’s in the rotation despite only playing 14-18 minutes.  The Celtics are without both backup big men in Baynes and Williams and I love what Theis is doing with a strong Celtics bench unit.

Jake Layman (4700)

Layman is a GPP-only option as his fantasy scoring is tied to his ability to get hot shooting with the Portland bench unit. He’s eclipsed the 40 FD point barrier twice in his last four games and you can’t deny that this dude can put the ball in the basket when he’s feeling it.

Shelvin Mack (3700)

If Mike Conley gets traded tomorrow, then you should be locking in Mack into cash games and GPPs as we’ve seen what he’s capable of with starters’ minutes. Even if he’s coming off the bench behind Conley, he’s worth a look at this price.

Dario Saric (3900)

D-D-Dario had himself a big game on Tuesday, posting a 22-7-5 line on the way to 36 FD points. He’s obviously got massive fantasy potential on any given night if his coach will unleash him the way he did against Memphis. He’s a superior offensive player to Taj Gibson and I thought he would have been starting by now after Thibs got fired, but for some reason, he’s not. I’ll take a GPP shot on him at this price and I’m okay with him being my drop score if he duds.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Sample Lineup and Overview

If you’re not familiar with how I wrap up the Breakdown, this is where I give you my thoughts on roster construction and briefly discuss my strategy for how I want to attack the slate.

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I usually like punting one or two spots on FanDuel with this year’s new “drop score” rule. Playing a lineup of all 5-7k players just makes zero sense to me and you’ll find that the guys winning consistently on FanDuel are going “stars and scrubs” pretty frequently.

Today’s sample lineup is a GPP lineup. My cheapest player in this lineup is 4500 and I usually like to go down to 4k or lower for at least one high-risk high-reward player, but I’m really not crazy about a lot of the value that we have on the slate so far. That could obviously change if we get some injury or trade news today.

I’m not in love with any game stacks (which is why I didn’t write one up) and this lineup reflects the strategy of playing a bunch of non-correlated players instead of stacking up players from the same team or game.

Remember, the sample lineup is for illustrative purposes and is not necessarily a “plug-and-play” lineup. This time of year so much can change in the course of 10-12 hours from when you begin to research a slate to when it actually locks.

PG: Corey Joseph (4500)
PG: Jerryd Bayless (5700)
SG: Lou Williams (8200)
SG: Terrence Ross (5500)
SF: Bojan Bogdanovic (5700)
SF: Rudy Gay (6000)
PF: Serge Ibaka (6700)
PF: Jaren Jackson (6500)
C: Karl-Anthony Towns (11000)

I hope you enjoyed my slate breakdown and I appreciate you taking the time to read my article. Be sure to share it with friends and fellow DFS players, leave comments or hit me with other feedback or questions on Twitter.  And keep coming back to FantasyCPR for the best free content in the industry! Good luck in your contests!