Good day and greetings from your NCAA basketball best bets to win host and value gambler. We’ve got 6 games on this Thursday slate where we look to hold a wagering advantage.
For those seeing this for the first time, I will be giving NCAA basketball best bets for the upcoming days games having written this article the night before. The lines I quote are the live lines at the time of writing, and if the line mentioned here is significantly worse for you then consider it a no bet.
Lines are very important and are key to the value plays. On average, 1 out of every 14 games moving at least 1 1/2 points from the opening number will land (the final score will be within the line move) so we want to make sure to get the proper number.
Disregard any play that is significantly off the number listed, has an unexpected injury, or any other factor not known before the day of the game that would negatively impact our play. I am playing these games also and will tweet when I can find anything important.
Yesterday, Wednesday, we went 2-2 pushing the overall record to 53-38-1.
Analysis of every game consists of the number I make the game and the associated trends within the game, including and especially how the teams are currently playing.
Sometimes you will see a stat saying team X has covered 8/10, then upon examination you see that team lost the last 2 in a row. Stats can be a trap so I filter them out for you.
Having said that, let’s get to our NCAA basketball best bets. I will be going thru these games in time order; if the strength of the play deviates from the standard unit it will be pointed out as the game is discussed. All times Eastern. Here we go:
St Peters -1 versus Monmouth, 7 pm
Monmouth has not won at St Peters since 2015, and I am banking on that trend to continue. The line opened St Peters 2 and has dropped to 1 as of this writing, primarily because Monmouth at home beat St Peters soundly in January. I’d like to take the advantage in the line and go with St Peters.
Florida Atlantic +1 versus UTEP, 9 pm
Vegas has acted a little too strongly with FAU’s injuries, and as a result has opened up a small window of value.
I see FAU winning by 5; getting points in that circumstance is a positive percentage play. There is nothing in the head to head history or in the recent results to offset this advantage.
South Florida +4 versus SMU, 9 pm
I make this game a pick, and recent play also points to South Florida. They have covered 8 of the last 9 while SMU has dropped 5 of 7.
SMU is known for having a raucous home crowd and a winning atmosphere, but the Mustangs have lost their last 2 at home to the number, one of them being an eleven point loss as a 2 point favorite.
Montana -21 versus Idaho, 9 pm
Both teams have been losing ATS, albeit Montana a lot closer than Idaho. My number here is Montana 31 and that is enough to lay this high number and hope they cover.
Montana beat Idaho on January 19 by a score of 69-51 as a 12 point away favorite, and since that time Idaho has lost the four games they have played to the line by a combined 32 points. I think Montana has enough to cover this weakened Idaho team.
Washington -1 versus Arizona, 9 pm
I make this game Washington 6 and the recent play favors the Huskies as well. Washington has won and covered 9 in a row, 3 of which were straight up road wins as an underdog. Arizona has been average at home but Washington is on a tremendous roll and I see no reason why it cannot continue tonight.
Long Beach State +1 versus Hawaii, 10 pm
This game is very similar to St Peters above. The line opened LBS 1 and moved to Hawaii favorite based on Hawaii at home beating LBS soundly 8 days ago. However Hawaii has not won at LBS since 2015, and the home team has won and covered the last 8 games in their head to head series.