Atleti, Real teetering on brink of mediocrity ahead of Madrid derby

Atletico Madrid host their city rivals in a pivotal clash, as both sides’ seasons teeter on the brink of mediocrity.

Atletico host Real this weekend in a Madrid derby that feels, well, a little less enticing than normal. Atleti lead Real in the table, but that is more a reflection of the latter’s listless form than the quality of the former. Then again, the league table might be the least of both sides’ worries heading into the final months of the season, with Barca looking like heavy favorites with 16 matches remaining.

Real have improved since the calendar flipped, not an uncommon development for them in recent years, but without Cristiano Ronaldo and Zinedine Zidane, they lack the aura of invincibility they have had in Europe over the past five years. It certainly doesn’t feel like they’re primed for the full-scale February turnaround they’ve made their hallmark in recent seasons.

Atletico, meanwhile, are struggling, having been knocked out of the Copa del Rey by Girona and beaten by Real Betis in La Liga last weekend, bringing to an end an 18-game unbeaten run in the league. That latter defeat allowed Real to pull within two points of their city rivals, meaning a win on Saturday will move Los Blancos into second place, five points of Barca, who play Athletic Bilbao on Sunday. With the Champions League set to return next week, then, the derby feels like it could be a turning point for both sides, or a primer for more mediocrity.

In recent games, Los Blancos have found form with five straight wins followed by a 1-1 draw against Barcelona in the midweek Copa Clasico first leg. They’ve only kept two clean sheets during that time, though, so there are defensive issues to exploit if Atletico are willing to take risks. In the previous fixture between these sides, Julen Lopetegui’s side were out of sorts, but Simeone opted to stick with his risk-free approach and ultimately missed out on a chance to beat them as the game ended 0-0.

Atleti have the best defensive record in the league with only 14 goals conceded so they have their usual defensive solidity which has become an integral part of their identity under Simeone. The issue has been in front of goal. They’ve only scored 32 — not good enough for a title challenge and a big part of the reason they’ve drawn eight games in the league so far. Betis were able to beat them last week by using their own style against them, grinding out a 1-0 win with a Sergio Canales penalty.

Alvaro Morata has been brought into address the goalscoring issues, as Diego Costa is injured (and wasn’t his usual, clinical self prior to that, anyway) while Nikola Kalinic has been a disappointment so far with only four goals in 950 minutes. Simeone has a tough task on his hands to restore the confidence of the Spanish striker after a poor spell at Chelsea, although if anyone can bring out his aggressive side it’s El Loco.

Florentino Perez decided to go another transfer window without bringing in a superstar as Real’s spending was limited to signing Brahim Diaz from Manchester City to add to their young talented Spanish core. They still haven’t properly replaced Cristiano Ronaldo, but that should be addressed in the summer. Summer signing Vinicius Junior has been hugely impressive. The 18-year-old has already nailed down a starting place and looks like a real talent.

Simeone will stick with his usual 4-4-2 setup in this match, limiting the space between the lines. He’ll be without Koke, Stefan Savic and Costa for this match, while Saul Niguez is a doubt.

Koke, in particular, is a big loss. He averages the most passes in the team with 62, including 1.7 key passes, so he’s important in the final third and also contributes defensively with 2.6 tackles and 1.1 interceptions, per WhoScored. Saul is likely to take his place on the left wing if he’s available, otherwise Thomas Lemar should start there with Thomas Partey sitting alongside Rodri in central midfield.

Antoine Griezmann will be key as he’s the conduit for Atleti’s attacking moves. He’s likely to be closely marked by Casemiro or Sergio Ramos in order to limit his influence. This means Morata needs to be an effective outlet in order to relieve pressure on the defense and ensure Griezmann isn’t burdened with too many responsibilities.

Santiago Solari has favored a 4-3-3 system since taking over and this is unlikely to change for this match. Dani Carvajal and Raphael Varane are both available after suspension, which is a huge boost. Marcelo started against Barcelona but he was one of the worst performers on the pitch so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Sergio Reguilon return as the Brazilian is a defensive liability.

Marcos Llorente went off injured against Barca, so Casemiro is likely to take his place. Luka Modric and Toni Kroos are likely to partner him as this will allow them to control the game and keep the Atletico defense moving across the pitch in order to create openings. Solari is likely to have the upcoming Champions League clash against Ajax in the back of his mind, which could influence his substitutions as that competition is the priority for Real.