DraftKings NBA Picks February 8: Big man roulette

BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS – FEBRUARY 07: LeBron James #23 of the Los Angeles Lakers dribbles against the Boston Celtics during the second half at TD Garden on February 07, 2019 in Boston, Massachusetts. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Picks February 8: Place your bets with big man roulette

We have a solid Friday with eight games for our DraftKings NBA tournaments. The dust has settled from the trade deadline. A.D. is still a Pelican (and probable) for tonight’s tilt. There are four others besides him in five figures. How is Davis going to play? Are any of the others worth the price? Let’s check this slate out!

DraftKings NBA Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Luka Doncic ($9,500): Doncic meshed well with his new teammates, putting up a triple double in the win over the Hornets. Milwaukee is a good defensive team, but Doncic put up 54.75 DraftKings points on them the first time around. It is unclear whether Justin Jackson will be ready for this game, but it doesn’t really matter. Doncic is Dallas right now. He is the alpha and omega of this offense, and is worth using against anyone.

Stephen Curry ($9,000): Before you go thinking blowout, consider this. Yes, the Warriors have blown out the Suns, but Curry still has 105.75 DraftKings points over 61 minutes in those two games. Curry is the Warriors star to trust here. You can build with Curry and use Warriors filler and still pack in another star.

Honorable Mention:

Eric Bledsoe ($6,700): The rich got richer when the Bucks added Mirotic yesterday without even having to give up a first round pick. Middleton is getting tonight off for rest, so that will leave a few more opportunities for Bledsoe tonight. Bledsoe has at least 5x value in four straight games and in seven of the last eight. This certainly looks like his fifth straight here.

Dennis Smith Jr. ($5,800): Smith put up 39.25 DraftKings points on the Pistons on Tuesday. Now he gets them again! In totally non-Fizdale fashion, Smith played almost 40 minutes on Tuesday night. If the Knicks are going to play him these kind of minutes, it’s going to be hard to lay off the upside here. It’s the Knicks so it’s hard to predict what they will do next, but Smith looks like a great play tonight.

Reggie Jackson ($5,600): Jackson kept pace with Smith on Tuesday, putting up 34.5 DraftKings points in that game. Both of these guys look like nice bargains tonight on a slate where we will need some solid value if we are paying for one or two of the big name bigs out there. Jackson is also eligible at SG, so it’s easy to fit him in there somewhere.

Dark Horses:

Shabazz Napier ($4,700): The expectation is that LeVert is going to steal some minutes from Napier, but how many? LeVert has been out more than two months. Initially, I would expect Napier to be pretty safe. His price is too low for the production he has put out there since Dinwiddie went down. This is something worth keeping an eye on, but I’ll be shocked if LeVert plays more than 20 minutes tonight. Napier should still play around half the game. Against the Bulls, that plenty enough to make value.

Collin Sexton ($4,500): Sexton exploded on the Irving-less Celtics for 41 DraftKings points on Tuesday. Sexton has averaged 31.4 DraftKings points in the three games against Washington so far this year. Even without Wall, they have struggled to contain point guards. More minutes are in store for Sexton with Burks gone. This could be another great spot for Sexton here.

Jalen Brunson ($4,300): The arrival of Hardaway did nothing to stop the production of Brunson. Brunson has 55.75 DraftKings points over the last two games with Smith out of the picture. Dallas is committed to playing Brunson at least 30 minutes. As long as his price is in this range, there is value to be had.

My pick: Smith(PG). Jackson(SG), Sexton(G); Jackson(PG), Brunson(G)

LONDON, ENGLAND – JANUARY 17: Bradley Beal of the Washington Wizards celebrates as Kevin Knox of The New York Knicks looks on after his team win the NBA London game 2019 between Washington Wizards and New York Knicks at The O2 Arena on January 17, 2019 in London, England. (Photo by Naomi Baker/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

Bradley Beal ($8,800): This is a smash spot against Cleveland. The Wizards even lost to the Cavs at the end of January, so there is reason to believe this stays close. It wasn’t Beal’s fault. Beal put up 47.5 DraftKings points in that game, but Satoransky struggled. The Wizards could have their new toys ready here, but I don’t think any of them take much away from Beal. He is clearly the focal point of this offense.

D’Angelo Russell ($8,200): Russell’s usage rate is still really high for a player in this price bracket, but he constantly shows us how low his floor can be. However, there has been far more good than bad lately. Russell has topped 50 DraftKings points in five of the last ten games. His average against the Bulls sits at 39.3 over three games this year, but Dinwiddie was in two of those. There is clear upside for Russell tonight, but his floor is frightening for someone who costs this much.

Honorable Mention:

Zach LaVine ($6,900): LaVine throttled the Pelicans for 53.5 DraftKings points on Wednesday. The Nets are pretty tough on shooting guards, so we need to temper our expectations, but LaVine’s price seems pretty low. He has 76.5 DraftKings points in two meetings with the Nets so far this year. That puts him comfortably above 5x value for this price.

Buddy Hield ($6,600): Hield went nuts on the Heat in the first meeting, racking up 47 DraftKings points in that one. The Kings gain Burks, but lost Justin Jackson, so I would think that Hield’s minutes would stay pretty much the same. However, he’s not hitting 47 again if he plays most of his minutes at the three. It will be interesting to see how this plays out, but the ceiling for Hield makes him really intriguing tonight.

Dark Horses:

Malcolm Brogdon ($5,400): I don’t know if Brogdon will experience any kind of uptick with Middleton out, but it doesn’t really matter. Brogdon rolled Dallas for 38.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting. Of course, Brogdon was right on schedule on Wednesday, landing in his sweet spot for DraftKings points (33) once again. There is very little volatility for Brogdon. Don’t underestimate how nice that is.

Dwyane Wade ($5,000): I don’t like the matchup for Wade, but it seems foolish to ignore just how well he has been playing lately. Wade has at least 30 DraftKings points in three of the last four games. So long as the Heat keep playing him meaningful minutes, Wade at least deserves consideration. I like him more in cash games, but I could see throwing him in a GPP as well.

Tim Hardaway Jr. ($4,900): Hardaway put up right at 5x value in his Dallas debut. It was nothing special, but what stood out to me was the fact that he took 16 shots. Dallas didn’t bring him in to stand idly by. The Mavs clearly see him as a part of this offense. Once his shot starts falling, he is going to destroy value at this price.

My pick: N/A; Hield(SG)

NEW YORK, NY – DECEMBER 25: Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 of the Milwaukee Bucks dunks against the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden on December 25, 2018 in New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:

Best Bet:

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,400): With Middleton out, I want all of Giannis tonight. He racked up 56.75 DraftKings points on them the first time around with Middleton in there. As opposed to other high priced players tonight, Giannis has no downside and more upside than normal. He will be at the core of all of my builds tonight.

Honorable Mention:

Andrew Wiggins ($6,000): Wiggins is still one of the more inconsistent pieces you can find, but this is a really good matchup for him. The Timberwolves have played the Pelicans three times so far, and Wiggins has a 35.3 DraftKings point average in those games. If you are entering multiple lienups, Wiggins deserves a look in at least one.

Otto Porter ($5,800): There is no official word on Porter yet, but with most of the traded pieces from Wednesday and Thursday debuting tonight, I’m hoping Porter will be one of them. This isn’t what I would call a great spot against the Nets, but Porter is a bulk scorer from a position that has been a black hole for the Bulls for a while now. There is ample upside for Porter here.

Dark Horses:

Kenrich Williams ($5,000): Williams put up another game of well over 5x value on Wednesday. He is pretty much a free 5.5x value so long as DraftKings leaves him at this price. I am curious if the return of Davis will cut into the production. I guess the big question here is whether the Pelicans start Williams or Darius Miller. If it’s Williams, I’m still interested. If it’s Miller, I don’ trust that Williams will do enough off the bench to hit value.

Joe Harris ($4,600): If you’re looking for who ruined all that lovely Nets value we had about three weeks ago, it’s Harris. Harris is back to siphoning 30 or so minutes per game due to his good perimeter shooting. Harris contributes enough across the board to always be a decent selection, but it’s when his shot is true that he really comes up big. This is a great matchup against the Bulls. Harris is going to be popular value tonight.

Dorian Finney-Smith ($3,900): I’m sure most of you are sick of seeing Iguodala in this slot. I still like Iggy tonight. He is always a strong value play. However, DFS is the exact same price as Iggy, and he is likely still starting for Dallas. DFS put up 34 DraftKings points after Barnes was dealt on Wednesday. That’s a really strong line for this small of a price.

My pick: DFS(SF); Antetokounmpo(SF)

DETROIT, MICHIGAN – FEBRUARY 02: Blake Griffin #23 of the Detroit Pistons triers to get a shot off past Boban Marjanovic #51 of the LA Clippers during the first half at Little Caesars Arena on February 02, 2019 in Detroit, Michigan. Los Angeles won the game 111-101. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Anthony Davis ($11,200): Davis is going to destroy Minnesota if the Pelicans let him. Let’s face it though: New Orleans has no incentive to turn him loose. His desire to leave was heard loud and clear. Why would the Pelicans want to make the playoffs and cost themselves a lottery pick? Why would they want to play Davis big minutes? He’s fragile enough as it is. I would bet that the Pelicans are going to play Davis just enough to satisfy the league and not a minute more. This situation is going to get worse before it gets better. Davis is a tough play right now until we know what to expect no matter how good the matchup is.

Blake Griffin ($8,900): Jordan is actually good enough to put up a fight against Drummond, which is really going to open things up for Blake. Griffin has 89 DraftKings points in two games against the Knicks this year, so he was a solid play anyway. I like him even more tonight with Drummond (somewhat) occupied.

Honorable Mention:

Lauri Markkanen ($7,000): This is a smash spot for Markkanen here. He has 92.75 DraftKings points in three games against the Nets so far. That’s nothing to get too excited over, but Brooklyn is undersized up front and Markkanen is no longer splitting minutes with Portis or Parker. The Bulls quietly got a lot better at the deadline. Will that show tonight?

Marvin Bagley ($6,200): The Kings moved Skal, but Harrison Barnes wasn’t picked up to ride the bench. That makes me nervous. The Kings have a lot of wings which will likely push Barnes mostly to the four. I’m guessing he will play some of each, but that also muddles the situation for Bagley here. Bagley is clearly a part of the future for the Kings, but how much is he really going to play now? This is a solid matchup, but I’m a little worried about the minutes unless the Kings are going to move Bagley to center and WCS to the bench.

Josh Jackson ($5,900): Who would have thought that Jackson’s future was at power forward for the Suns? After being mostly a bust at the two and three, Jackson has been putting up monster numbers with T.J. Warren out while mostly playing the four. I don’t really like any Suns against the Warriors, but Jackson has more upside than most. My first instinct is to avoid this game, but I though that about the Lakers and Celtics last night too. If the Suns can hand around, this is a DFS gold mine for everyone but KD.

Dark Horses:

Mason Plumlee ($5,400): Paul who? Plumlee has racked up 77.75 DraftKings points over the last two games with Milsap out. The addition of Harris is going to help Philly at their weakest point, so I don’t see another 40+ outburst from Plumlee here. However, his price is still low enough that 5x value is all but certain if Millsap is out again.

Jeff Green ($5,300): With Porter out of the fold, that opens up a starting role for Green. Green has at least 32 DraftKings points in four straight games, and he is still this cheap. Thank you DraftKings for giving us such a simple value play. I’m forever in your debt, and I will only speak kindly of you on social media.

Dario Saric ($4,400): Saric has back to back games of more than 30 DraftKings points. He did it last night despite playing just 21 minutes! I would expect that Minnesota will start Gibson against the huge Pelicans front, but with Davis likely playing limited minutes, Saric should still play around half the game. With the way he’s shooting right now, he can hit value in that short of time.

My pick: Green(PF); Green(PF)

DENVER, CO – APRIL 05: Karl-Anthony Towns #32 of the Minnesota Timberwolves puts up a shot over Paul Millsap #4 of the Denver Nuggets at the Pepsi Center on April 5, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Centers:

Best Bets:

Joel Embiid ($10,600): Jokic isn’t one of the centers I choose to actively go after, but it’s hard to deny what Embiid is doing. He has three straight games of more than 60 points, and two of those were against strong fronts in the Warriors and Raptors. Embiid may be matchup-proof. The last team to hold him under 50 DraftKings points was the Knicks almost a month ago, and he only played 32 minutes in that game. If playing multiple lineups, I would slide Embiid in at least one just in case.

Nikola Jokic ($10,400): Jokic put up a monster triple double and 76.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting with the Sixers this year. However, Embiid missed that game. The chances of Jokic repeating that with Embiid in there are practically zero, but his skill set is still one that could give Embiid some problems.

Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,000): Or you could just ignore that whole situation and go with Towns. Why is that a good idea? Because Towns has 202 DraftKings points in 108 minutes against the Pelicans this year. That’s high volume and outstanding production. Towns has proven three times that he can handle this front. If I’m paying up for a big, one of them will definitely be Towns tonight.

Honorable Mention:

Julius Randle ($8,000): However, the Pelicans have every reason to play Randle. He is only getting better. Whether they want to build around him or they plan on sending him on his way, the Pelicans want to see Randle handle a starter’s workload. It will increase his trade value or prove to the team that he can be something worth building around. I would play him over Davis probably for the rest of the season.

Hassan Whiteside ($6,800): Whiteside is finally back in the Miami rotation for now. How long will it last this time? I sure hope it’s at least through tonight. Whiteside destroyed the Kings interior for 58.5 DraftKings points in just 29 minutes in the first meeting. Chris Webber isn’t walking through that door anytime soon. Whiteside is going to have his way with the Kings again tonight.

Dark Horses:

Thomas Bryant ($5,200): Bryant’s career night of 55.5 DraftKings points against the Bucks on Wednesday is going to spike ownership, but he’s facing Zizic not Tristan Thompson, and he has a clear path to minutes here. Even if Bryant only gets half of Wednesday’s output, he’s sitting on 5x value. He is a strong value pick tonight.

Dwight Powell ($4,400): With Jordan and Harrison Barnes both gone, the center job is Powell’s to lose. He put up 38.5 DraftKings points on Charlotte Wednesday night, and should be expected to do much of the same against a Milwaukee team that just got ravaged by Bryant the other night. There is significant upside for Powell here. I would say he will flirt with 10x value.

My pick: Jokic(C), Towns(UTIL), Powell(F); Whiteside(C), Powell(F)

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