EPL DFS Breakdown – Saturday 2/9/19

Welcome back to my EPL DFS Breakdown!  Hopefully you can find all the information you need to make a winning lineup here!

We have a solid 6-game EPL DFS slate with Liverpool as the clear top favorites.  Arsenal and Southampton are decent favorites as well.  There is an over/under of 3.5 in the Bournemouth @ Liverpool game, so Vegas expects Liverpool to be busy in front of the goal at home.  All over the over/unders are set at 2.5 with Burnley @ Brighton only at 2.0.

There is some relevant injury news on this slate, most namely Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang’s GTD tag with an illness.  I’ll have updates on my Twitter handle (@vdray5) on this situation as it develops.

Two other strikers, Danny Ings and Callum Wilson have also been ruled out making way for some decent value that I will get into later.

Aside from that, the slate is fairly straightforward, so let’s get to it.

EPL DFS: Target Forwards

Alexandre Lacazette (Arsenal @ Huddersfield, $11,500) – Both Lacazette and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang ($12,000) will be popular plays on this slate.  They’re taking on a Huddersfield team that has given up the second most goals in the league to date.

Lacazette is coming into this game in better form than Aubameyang with three goals in his last five games.  Additionally, Aubameyang could miss out on the match due to illness, and Arsenal would be forced to rely heavily on Lacazette.

Aubameyang shouldn’t be ignored though because he is a more dangerous scorer than Lacazette and has a higher ceiling.  Getting exposure to Arsenal’s attack is a good way to start in cash games.

Glenn Murray (Burnley @ Brighton, $8,000) – It isn’t often that I put cheap players in target categories, but this is one cheap player that you should target.  This is a great match-up for Murray against a Burnley team that is allowing 1.85 goals per game on the road.

I’ve written about it before so we should all know now that Murray is a much better scorer at home.  Murray has been in a slump, but he did just score two goals (also at home) against Fulham less than two weeks ago.  He’s one of the best value plays across the board.  Jurgen Locadia ($7,500) could also be worth a GPP punt in a prime match-up.

EPL DFS: Value Forwards

Shane Long (Cardiff @ Southampton, $7,500) – With Danny Ings back on the shelf, Long will draw another start on Saturday.  Long only has six starts in the EPL this season, but I wouldn’t let that deter me from playing him.

Cardiff City have been poor all year, especially on defense where they’ve given up 1.84 goals per game.  Long is going to get his looks at a goal this week which makes him worthy as a punt, but he’ll need to convert a chance to a goal to hit value.

Also like: Dwight McNeil ($7,000)

EPL DFS: Target Midfielders

Mo Salah (Bournemouth @ Liverpool, $13,000) – Salah at home against a leaky Bournemouth defense.  Give me all of it.  Sadio Mane ($11,000) has scored in three straight EPL games, which makes him a good play as well.

Luka Milivojevic (West Ham @ Crystal Palace, $8,000) – More Luka!  The best thing about Milivojevic is that he does everything making his floor really safe.  He has another plus match-up against West Ham this week.

Over his last five EPL games, Milivojevic is averaging 26.2 FDP which is 3.3x value.  He should sit right around that mark again this week.  He’s a top mid-priced midfielder in all formats.

Pascall Gross (Burnley @ Brighton, $8,000) – An interesting way to approach this slate in GPPs is to stack Brighton.  They are not well-known players, but they’re cheap enough with a great matchup where you can fit several of them in.

Over his last five EPL games, Gross is averaging 2.8x value, but that’s including a 6.9 FDP dud against Liverpool.  If you exclude that game, it jumps to 3.3x value.  A Brighton stack should include Gross as he is the creator in the midfield.

If he can pair up with Murray, a stack should prove fruitful in GPPs.  Davy Propper ($6,500) is a solid value play in this match-up.

EPL DFS: Value Midfielders

Tom Cleverley (Everton @ Watford, $6,000) – There are not many attractive midfield punts on this slate, but Cleverley is going to be one of your better bets.  Cleverley is averaging 13.5 FDP since being reinserted to Watford’s starting lineup after recovering from injury.  A match-up at home against Everton is solid and he should hit the 3x value mark.

EPL DFS: Target Defenders

Sol Bamba (Cardiff @ Southampton, $7,000) – Bamba started out the season as one of the best producing defenders on FanDuel, and after a slump, he’s nearly back to his early-season form.  Since Christmas, Bamba is averaging 21.3 FDP per game which is over that 3x value mark.

He had a big 30+ FDP game last week, and I’m now willing to go back to Bamba at this price.  Don’t prioritize him over a FWD/MID stud, but consider him in GPPs if you have the money.

Sead Kolasinac (Arsenal @ Huddersfield, $5,500) – A common strategy of mine is to get exposure to attacking defenders in match-ups where their team is favored.  That’s exactly what we have here.

Arsenal should control the ball in the game and Kolasinac will have the freedom to join the attack up the flanks.  He has an affordable price for this match-up, and I could see him up near the 4x value mark.

Daryl Janmaat (Everton @ Watford, $5,000) – Janmaat has made three appearances in the EPL since suffering an injury in September.  His first two games weren’t great, but he busted out with a 27.9 FDP game last weekend.

He looks to have his feet back under him now, and he’s still priced about $1,500 down than his pre-injury price.  This is a great spot to take advantage of that.

EPL DFS: Value Defenders

Jannik Vestergaard (Cardiff @ Southampton, $5,000) – Somehow Vestergaard is still cheap.  At $5,000, he’s eclipsed the 3x value mark 5/7 times, with three of those give being over 4x value.  He put up 20.3 FDP last time out against Cardiff, and that is definitely in play again.

Laurent Koscielny (Arsenal @ Huddersfield, $5,000) – This is the definition of riding the hot hand.  After spending almost 2/3 of the season injured or working his way back to full fitness, he’s scored in his last two games (against Chelsea and Manchester City).

This week he faces a weak Huddersfield team at a cheap price.  I wouldn’t expect a goal out of him, but he’s worth a look in all formats.

Also like: Tommy Smith ($4,000)

EPL DFS: Goalkeepers

Bernd Leno (Arsenal @ Huddersfield, $6,000) – Huddersfield have only scored 13 goals in 25 games this season.  Arsenal have no business conceding.

Alex McCarthy (Cardiff @ Southampton, $4,500) – Same story here as with Leno.  Cardiff just don’t score, and Southampton have been playing better at home.  A win and clean sheet here at this price would be great value.

Thanks for reading and good luck.