NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Friday, February 8
Welcome to the Friday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy basketball line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Thursday’s NBA DFS post trade deadline slate was dominated at the top by the stars and LeBron James and Russell Westbrook put up 71 and 65 fantasy points to lead the pack but it was a strong mid-tier of guys that really made the difference as Pascal Siakam (64 FPTS), CJ McCollum (56) and DeMar DeRozan (49) had strong nights in the $12-$13K range. The winning lineups last night, for the second straight night opted to go far more balanced as opposed to Stars and Scrubs which is a helpful trend to keep in mind as we look to build our rosters each day.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Friday NBA Slate Breakdown:
Well we made it through the NBA Trade Deadline and while Anthony Davis remains in New Orleans, as DFS players we need to be careful watching the news over the next few days as rotations will remain in flux with newly acquired players not yet suiting up, getting acclimated to their new roles and a plethora of buy-out candidates which give us plenty of chances to find value.
We are still waiting on some Vegas data for tonight’s slate as we have a ton of injury and trade related question marks to sort through with the biggest being in the Sixers/Nuggets national TV game. The biggest news here is Joel Embiid is listed as questionable with an illness while we are not yet sure the status of Tobias Harris and on the Nuggets side we know Gary Harris is out while Paul Millsap is listed as questionable.
The fastest projected pace game of the night is between Minnesota and New Orleans with the big news here being that Anthony Davis will remain on the Pelicans and is expected to suit up the remainder of the season.
Anthony Davis ($20.4K) is the most expensive player on the slate and he has gone for 50+ fantasy points in his last three meeting with KAT and the Wolves but despite all that, I think this is going to be one of those night where AD is crazy low-owned as people are hesitant to jump back on him after watching him sit out among trade rumors for the last week to two weeks.
The Pelicans will be without Elfrid Payton tonight and they have traded away Nikola Mirotic to Milwaukee, so on the face of it – this seems like a great spot to fire up AD in what could be a massive, “I’m Back” kind of game.
The risk is real though – as Woj points out – it is crazy to say, but AD may be the ultimate GPP risk tonight.
Here’s what to expect with Anthony Davis’ usage the rest of way with Pelicans: Fewer, if any, back-to-backs and a reduction in minutes from his 37 per game.
— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) February 8, 2019
On the other side of this game, the Timberwolves might actually be down all three PG’s on their roster as Rose, Teague and now Bayless are questionable due to injury. If the injuries hold, Isaiah Canaan ($6K) could draw the start at minimum price and get all the minutes he could handle – he would be a lock and load value play on this slate in all formats with 30+ minutes of court time in the best pace game environment of the night.
NBA DFS – Building a Core:
This 8 game slate has so many paths I think you can go down – at first glance, the Nuggets/Sixers and Wolves/Pelicans both look like ideal spots to build your core but I think my favorite game may actually be the Mavericks/Bucks which has a 223 total and is projected to be the second fastest pace game on the slate.
First and foremost, the Bucks have some injury news which has a big impact on this slate, with Khris Middleton being listed as OUT due to load management. We have a massive sample size of data to use when Middleton is out and it all starts with Giannis Antetokounmpo ($20.3K) who has a team high 33% usage rate while putting up 64 FPTS per 36 minutes with Middleton off the court. One note, Giannis is listed as probable with knee soreness so make sure you watch the news here to confirm is he officially in.
Over the last 10 games, Milwaukee is playing at the third fastest pace in the entire NBA and with Middleton off the court, and the Bucks waiting on Nikola Mirotic to join the crew, this could be a spot where you simply need to prioritize spending up for Giannis.
No player sees a bigger usage boost than Eric Bledsoe ($12.5K) with Middleton off the court, seeing a 5% usage increase and putting up 44 FPTS per 36 on the season with Middleton out. This play is one of the easiest on the board for me in both cash games and GPP’s as the price point for Bledsoe feels far too cheap considering the boost in his role.
Bledsoe would need 37 fantasy points just to hit value tonight – and here are his last four games, all with Middleton on the court- 39, 40, 42 and 53. This feels like a cash game must have and it is hard to argue there isn’t substantial profit potential left at this price point with the added usage. Starting your lineups tonight with Giannis/Bledsoe feels like a smart core strategy.
Now if you are going to build with the Bucks, then I always recommend bringing it back with the opposition and the Mavericks get one of the biggest pace boosts of any team in action tonight. Dallas is a team in complete flux right now – having sent away DeAndre Jordan, Wes Matthews and Harrison Barnes which means this is a team that will likely have three new starters in their lineup tonight.
It all starts with Luka Doncic ($17.6K) who is going to be an absolute usage monster in what is now clearly his show to run. Last game against the Hornets, he had a team high 35% usage rate with a team-high 20 FGA and that was a game in which Harrison Barnes played, well at least for half of it until he got traded Wilmer Flores style mid-game.
You know who was second on the Mavs in shot attempts last game? Can you guess? Come on. Do it. Tim Hardaway Jr. ($10.1K) people – you knew it was coming.
Now THJ did not start in his first game with Dallas but now with Harrison Barnes out the door, would it shock you to see him start alongside Luka tonight? Looking at the game flow from that game, THJ still saw 27 minutes and had the second high usage rate on the team at 28.7% so there is going to be usage and volume for THJ in his new home and the price remains at a spot where I think you have to prioritize him.
Again, focusing on the game flow in that game, we saw both Dwight Powell and Maxi Kleber on the court together during the 4th quarter which is likely a pairing we see again tonight for Dallas with Barnes no longer on the team. Both of these guys are priced under $9K and have clear paths to big minutes which makes them a great salary saving option with profit potential to help you afford getting in both Giannis and Luka in this game stack.
Lastly, Dorian Finney-Smith ($7.5K) is coming off a 33 minute, 15/10 game where he racked up 34 fantasy points and as with guys like Kleber/Powell/THJ, they are locked into major minutes at price points that just simply do not match their expanded role. In a game where Dallas sees a massive pace boost and has taken 3 starters who were locks to play 30+ a night and sent them packing, the remaining Dallas starters are all firmly in my player pool tonight as elite values.
NBA DFS – Pivot Plays and Game Stacks:
Not only am I writing up Picks and Pivots perpetual cover boy, Tim Hardaway Jr. but I also get a D’Angelo Russell ($15.1K) night – maybe my second most used player in NBA DFS – this is going to be a heck of a night!
Brooklyn may not have made any big moves on deadline day, but with the return of Allen Crabbe and Caris LeVert, the Nets got some of the biggest deadline boosts of any team in the NBA and did not have to surrender a single asset to do so. The Nets are coming off a huge win against the Denver Nuggets and tonight get one of the best match-ups against a Chicago Bulls team that is ranked among the worst team defenses in the NBA.
I have seemingly been beating this drum for weeks now – but take a guess which team is leading the league in pace over the last 10 games – well, you can probably guess it is Brooklyn considering the context of this section, but I am not sure many would have guessed that. So you get a fast paced team, playing against one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA – there has got to be something to like here.
Russell is the elite play here, a high usage, high volume All-Star who has carried the load for Brooklyn and has already dropped 45 and 53 fantasy points against this Bulls team over the last month. Now, the return of Levert and Crabbe is going to take away from Russell’s upside eventually but this is a Kenny Atkinson coached team – you think Crabbe/LeVert are going to step in and play 30 minutes tonight? Come on now.
Over the last ten games, D-Russ has shot the ball over 21 times per game, 4th most in the league – trailing only James Harden, Donovan Mitchell and Paul George. Russell has a 31.1% usage rate over that span which is 9th most in the entire NBA.
I say this seemingly every time D-Russ is on a slate, but comparable players in terms of volume and usage are going to sot you thousands more to roster – which is why D-Russ at this $15K price point continues to have massive upside.
The rest of the Nets become secondary plays with upside more as a result of the match-up than anything else. DeMarre Carroll and Jarrett Allen are both under $10K on FantasyDraft and have put up 30+ fantasy points in their earlier match-ups with the Bulls in January. With the Bulls shipping away Bobby Portis and Jabari Parker and the potential for a Robin Lopez buy-out – this Bulls front court is one I think we simply have to attack and I love the double-double upside for both Carroll and Allen even though they may not crack 30 minutes.
If you want to game stack this spot, and it is not overly hard to do – you can run it back with mid-range plays like Zach LaVine and Lauri Markannen who averaged 50 fantasy points between them in a similar pace up spot against New Orleans last game for a short-handed Chicago team.
NBA DFS – Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:
Please note – this sample lineup is meant to be illustrative and should not be used as a Plug and Play lineup.
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G: Luka Doncic
G: Eric Bledsoe
G: Tim Hardaway Jr.
F/C: Maxi Kleber
F/C: DeMarre Carroll
UTIL: D’Angelo Russell
UTIL: Isaiah Canaan
Slate Overview: Right off the bat, this slate is one I love – there are so many elite game environments, a ton of stars and a bunch of under-priced value for new roles that I think we can attack.
It may sound silly, but the Timberwolves PG news may be the most critical piece of news as anytime you can start your build with a minimum priced play with 30-35 minutes of upside, it completely changes the dynamic of your build. Putting in Canaan makes locking in a Giannis/AD, an easy path and as you can see, you still have more than enough room to fit in 2-3 other high ceiling plays.
I will do my best today on Twitter (@2LockSports) to pass on the lineup and roster news as we get it and this is going to be key – with so many new faces in new places, we may not see them all suit up tonight which could open up even more value.
Enjoy this one guys – it looks like an awesome slate.
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