NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Sunday, February 10

Welcome to the Sunday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!

For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy basketball line-up and win big.

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.

Saturday’s NBA DFS slate was primarily dominated by the 4 key stars in the Thunder/Rockets game as the core 4 from that game (PG13, Westbrook, Harden and CP3) ended the night with 4 of the top 7 scores on the slate. We got some value that opened up throughout the day with Giannis sitting which turned Khris Middleton and Eric Bledsoe into under-priced building blocks that pushed near 70% ownership in GPP play.

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.

If you are looking to try out a new DFS site, head on over to FantasyDraft and enter my referral code for 10% rake back on your entries.

As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.

Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!

NBA DFS – Sunday Slate Breakdown:

FantasyDraft has set this slate up to where all five games are on the same slate, where as a site like DraftKings has opted to break it into two slates which seems odd considering they have late swap – but moving on – the key here on FantasyDraft, a slate without late swap, is that you have a five game slate starting at 3PM EST where the last game kicks off at 8:30PM EST so there is very real risk that you will not have all the starting lineup data before lock.

As a result of the staggered start time, the safe(r) route and likely the most popular will be to front load your roster construction with a specific focus on the game of the day – Sixers/Lakers – which kicks off at 3:30 PM EST.

With a slate high 234 total and the fastest projected pace of any game today, this is the most obvious spot to build around and we have a plethora of stars to anchor to. LeBron James ($19K) is the most expensive player on the slate, fresh off a 71 fantasy point outing against the Celtics and now you put him in a National TV game against the Sixers – it is tough to argue with the ceiling potential here for LeBron.

What really stood out to me looking back at that Lakers-Celtics game was just how tight of a rotation the Lakers ran post trade-deadline. The starting five of LeBron, Rondo, Ingram, Kuzma and McGee all played 30+ minutes with KCP being the only player who logged more than 20 minutes off the bench.

Outside of LeBron, the Lakers are priced incredibly fairly on this slate – with Rajon Rondo ($12.4K), Kyle Kuzma ($11.3K), Brandon Ingram ($10.5K) and JaVale McGee ($9.2K). You can stack the entire starting five here from the Lakers and still have over $12.5K for the last few spots on your roster so going with an all-in early stack on arguably the best game on the slate is a viable route.

Over the last 15 games, the Lakers and Sixers rank 7th and 9th in pace of play so you are attacking arguably the best game environment on the board and if they are going to keep this tight of a rotation, we simply have to take notice. The one thing to keep in mind, the Lakers will have Reggie Bullock AND Mike Muscala available for this game (who by the way are both stone minimum price on FantasyDraft) so if we get any indication of minutes here, you may get a nice punt play with upside.

When these two teams played back on 1/29, LeBron was still out so take that game with a grain of salt, but one key takeaway for me – JaVale McGee played 27 minutes against Embiid, racking up 17/14 and 43 fantasy points which at a sub $10K price point tonight, makes him potentially one of the best point per dollar options on the slate.

NBA DFS – Building a Game Stack:

From a pure basketball perspective, I am incredibly excited to watch this Sixers/Lakers game to see first hand how this new loaded Philly squad plays. From a DFS perspective however, this is becoming almost like Golden State where you have too many stars and only one ball – so not only is it hard to stack them in a salary cap world, but you can argue that with so many stars in their rotation now, it caps the upside of the Sixers across the board.

If we take a look back at their game versus Denver, there are some interesting things to note. First off, Joel Embiid ($18.3K) remained a usage monster with a 36% usage rate but struggled with his efficiency, shooting only 4-17 from the floor. Embiid put up 53 fantasy points against this Lakers team in their only other meeting this season and the fact you can stack him with LeBron when they are both under $20K makes it a viable route to go with the pricing as it stands on FantasyDraft.

JJ Redick ($9.8K) was actually second on the team in usage with a 30% mark against Denver putting up a team high 1.36 FP/M as a result of some red-hot shooting, where he went 11 for 15 from the floor. Now, I am certainly not going to expect a shooter like Redick to keep this high a usage rate with so many stars on the floor and his scoring dependent nature makes him risky – but at under $10K, I think the price over accounts for that “risk” and he makes for an elite salary saving option with upside today. The best place to attack the Lakers is at SG where they rank 26th in Def-Eff, so I think this is a spot you go right back to Redick today.

The remaining trio of Ben Simmons ($15K), Jimmy Butler ($13.8K), and Tobias Harris ($12.1K) I think is where you prioritize less and simply land on them as plays within a game stack depending on the price point you have in your build.

It is only one game, but Harris having a 19% usage rate is certainly a concern and it becomes a hard sell to pay more for him then the Lakers forwards in Ingram/Kuzma who have much clearer paths to minutes and usage.

The decision of whether to go Simmons or Butler is a toss-up frankly as both players had a 22% usage last game and both put up 45 fantasy points in their previous meeting with the Lakers. The fact that Butler is cheaper would seem to tilt the scales slightly in his favor but honestly, I am fine going with either in a game stack.

I have to be honest – I did not think that this game would be something price wise that we even could stack – but it is actually not all that difficult on FantasyDraft.

For example – if you run LeBron, Kuzma, Ingram and McGee and run it back with Embiid, Redick and either Simmons or Butler – you have $7-8K left for your last man in depending on which of Simmons/Butler you use. Again, the fact that the pricing allows you to stack this game makes it something I think you have to consider as it may be one of only two games we have lineup confirmation on and when looking at the entirety of the slate it may be the best pure game spot regardless so stack away my friends.

NBA DFS – Pivot Plays and Slate Wrap Up:

With the 3PM lock on FantasyDraft, the only other game on this slate we will likely have lineup confirmation on is Dallas/Portland which has some interesting pivot spots off the Lakers/Sixers stars but I have to be honest – I am a bit perplexed on why there is no line out for this game.

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This is all just total speculation but without a line could it mean someone like Luka Doncic or Damian Lillard is going to sit? If that were to happen, the amount of value that would open up would be substantial – it would basically be like the Giannis situation yesterday where it takes guys like Middleton/Bledsoe and pushes them from guys who weren’t in your player pool to now near must plays.

Rather than play the what if game here, I simply wanted to point this out as something to watch. If everyone is in, Luka and Dame becomes really interesting pivot plays at just under $17K as options off the likely popular LeBron/Embiid duo.

If anyone sits here, this becomes value city and would completely change the slate – I will make sure to keep you posted on Twitter (@2LockSports) – and let me just say this, if Luka sits – Tim Hardaway Jr. at $10K – sweet mother of God, how do you not go all-in?

With the early slate lock, the later games will become great GPP spots due to the uncertainty with a specific focus on the Magic/Hawks. Nikola Vucevic ($17.8K) dropped 55 fantasy points the last time these teams met and similar to how I feel about Luka/Dame, could end up as an over-looked star on this slate with so much focus on the Lakers and Sixers.

Enjoy this slate guys – keep an eye on the news and be smart with your strategy – without late swap on FantasyDraft, understand the risk you are taking using anyone outside of the first two games and plan accordingly. Happy Sunday all – enjoy your day!

Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR each and every day for all the latest NBA DFS news and analysis across FantasyDraft, FanDuel and DraftKings.