Good day and greetings from your NCAA basketball best bets to win host and value gambler. We’ve got 7 games on this crazy Sunday slate where I believe we can stay ahead of the number.
For those seeing this for the first time, I will be giving NCAA basketball best bets for the upcoming days games having written this article the night before. The lines I quote are the live lines at the time of writing, and if the line mentioned here is significantly worse for you then consider it a no bet.
Lines are very important and are key to the value plays. On average, 1 out of every 14 games moving at least 1 1/2 points from the opening number will land (the final score will be within the line move) so we want to make sure to get the proper number.
Yesterday, Saturday, we went 2-3-1 reducing our overall record to 60-44-2. I play all these games myself, so for as long as I can provide overall winning selections I will continue to write these articles. Hopefully we are winning together, as I would like to see money go into your hands and away from the books.
Analysis of every contest consists of the number I make the game and the associated trends, including and especially how the teams are currently playing. One thing I have long noticed is if almost all stats point to one team, the other is usually the winner. There are some just like that on tap for today.
Sometimes you will see a stat saying team X has covered 8/10, then upon examination that team lost the last 2 in a row. Stats can be a trap so I filter them out for you.
Okay let’s get to it and see if we can pick some Sunday winners:
NCAA Basketball Best Bets To Win – Explorers Find A Cover
Lasalle +6 versus George Mason, 2 pm
This game looks to be setting up well for Lasalle. I make it a pick game so these 6 points should be good enough to get us an ATS victory with a chance of an outright upset win. Lasalle has gone in streaks and are currently on a 4-0 ATS run. Hopefully here the trend is our friend.
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Central Florida +1 versus SMU, 2 pm
Both teams are on a bad ATS run, but CFL has won the last 2 in their head to head series and has mostly played better against like opponents. My guess is CFL wins by 8 points.
Connecticut +8 versus Memphis, 2 pm
This is one of those games that would appear to be one-sided in favor of Memphis. The Tigers have won the last 4 in their series and have fared better against like opponents. However this line opened 5 1/2 and quickly moved up to 7 1/2 with a couple stray 8’s. This is too much value to give away and my money is on UConn plus the points.
East Carolina +14 versus South Florida, 5:30 pm
Probably the most extreme example of fading the obvious. SFL has covered 9/10 while E Car has dropped their last 6 ATS, and E Car in some road games this season have been absolutely crushed. Yet even though more than 2/3 of the wagers have been on SFL, the line is actually drifting down.
East Carolina/South Florida OVER 129, 5:30 pm
The same reasoning here. Unders have flooded the score sheets for both these teams but my number is 138; I am willing to try the unpopular over bet here.
Georgia Tech +6 versus Notre Dame, 6 pm
Notre Dame opened 4 and quickly soared to 5 1/2 with a stray 6 available. I am taking the points with GT. Couple the extra value from the opening line with GT unbelievably winning 10 in a row in their series and we have enough of an advantage to play.
Lafayette +1 versus Holy Cross
My number has Lafayette winning by 7 points here. I will trust it.
St Peters +1 versus Canisius – added game, 1 pm
My number has St Peters winning by 4, and I will take that over Canisius strong stats showing a 7-1 ATS mark their last 8 away games and a 7/8 cover ratio their last 8 on the Peacocks home floor.