Champions League field is wide open (for real this time)

The Champions League is harder to call than it has been in years. Then again, we said the same thing last season, and Real Madrid won again.

It’s at this point, when the stakes are higher and the pressure is on, that supporters of certain clubs will start plotting a route, maybe even Googling hotel and flight prices. The round of 16, the first knockout stage, is when the Champions League gets real, when the contenders rise to the top and the pretenders fall by the wayside.

In each of the last three years, Real Madrid fans could be forgiven for making their arrangements for the final early. In 2016, they made the trip to Milan. In 2017, Cardiff. And last year, Kiev. Each time, their team has returned to the Spanish capital triumphant, turning European soccer’s premier club competition into something of a closed shop.

Something feels a little different this time, though. Real Madrid, minus Cristiano Ronaldo and Zinedine Zidane, are not the force they were last season. In fact, the three-time defending champions are, by most bookmakers’ reckoning, only sixth favorites to finish atop the continental pile this June.

Many have Manchester City down as this season’s favorites. Pep Guardiola was hired in the first place to turn the Abu Dhabi-owned club into a European force and some predict that breakthrough will come by June despite City’s relative struggles in defending their Premier League crown this season.

Paris Saint-Germain are another who have long been tipped as European football’s next superpower, although their failure to make it past the quarterfinal stage of the Champions League despite huge investment in the likes of Neymar, Edinson Cavani and Kylian Mbappe has raised doubts over whether they will ever crack the big time.

Barcelona can never be discounted, particularly with Lionel Messi seemingly determined to make up for lost time by winning his first Champions League title in four years. The Argentinean might be into his 30s now, but never before has his influence at Camp Nou been so great. In this form, he could almost win the Champions League on his own.

Juventus are other club who have placed great stock in lifting the trophy. As Italy’s predominant force, the Bianconeri see Europe as the final frontier, having recently made the final twice — in 2015 and 2017. Their mega-money move for Ronaldo was motivated almost entirely by their desire to win the Champions League. There is pressure on Max Allegri to deliver.

Even below that elite group, a case can be made for others. The transformation in Manchester United has been astonishing since the departure of Jose Mourinho. Who’s to say, with the talent on show at Old Trafford, that they can’t gather momentum, just as they have in the league, and make a run deep into the competition?

That’s what Liverpool did last season. Jurgen Klopp’s side are better, stronger, than they were then, so they can’t be discounted either. The same could be said for Bayern Munich, Atletico Madrid, Borussia Dortmund and even Spurs. Now that we’re into the last 16 and solid judgements can be made, the Champions League has rarely looked as open as it is this season.

However, it’s worth keeping in mind that last season’s Champions League was heralded as the most open in the competition’s recently history, only for Real Madrid to lift the trophy for a third successive year, a fourth time in five years. Zidane very nearly lost his job at the turn of the year. It was quite the turnaround.

History may well be repeating itself, with Real Madrid finding a rich vein of form in recent weeks. They could make it four in a row. That is not beyond the realm of possibility. But there is no clear favorite. Pretty much any and every team in the last 16 could fall at the first hurdle or make a run all the way to the finish line. Now all that’s left is for the starting pistol to sound.