A tale of 2 teams: North Carolina, Michigan State going in opposite directions

Two prominent programs are going different directions that seem unlikely to change come tournament time.

There is a fine line between events culminating into a trend and events becoming an outlier. The North Carolina Tar Heels and Michigan State Spartans are two programs that encompass the previously stated observation.

North Carolina runs on tempo

The Tar Heels are absolutely rolling with their combination of a fast-paced attack on offense, an elite defense, and players excelling through a better understanding of their role on the team. Conversely, Michigan State has lost three out of their last four games. The Spartans issues are more personnel focused that go beyond their overall statistical profile.

North Carolina is playing at one of the fastest tempos in the country. The Tar Heels tempo ranking, via KenPom, is the fifth fastest in the nation, a ranking they haven’t achieved since they ranked sixth during their 2009 champion season.

Freshman point guard Coby White has unleashed this elite tempo with his plus size at 6-foot-5 combined with his ability to attack efficiently off the dribble. Bart Torvik’s database has White finishing about 65 percent of his attempts at the rim. The Tar Heels can afford to play fast when their orchestrator can constantly put pressure at the rim and has the option to pass out to the perimeter where excellent shooters are waiting for his passes.

Senior Cameron Johnson is the one mostly waiting for a White kick-out pass. Johnson is one of college basketball’s premier shooters, hitting an absurd 47.5 percent of this three-point attempts. Johnson is a low usage player who merely needs to be set up for his marksman shooting to be effective. Most of Johnson’s three’s have been assisted this year, however, he uses his 6-foot-9 frame exceptionally well to shoot 68 percent at the rim.

Other Tar Heels have also become more comfortable with their roles around White and Johnson. Senior Luke Maye is more of a swiss-army-knife with his ability to attack at every level on offense and is one of the best defensive rebounders in the country. Sophomore forward Garrison Brooks is strong when attacking the rim and crashes the boards with great intensity. Most importantly, freshman and projected lottery pick Nassir Little is growing more confident within Roy Williams’ system and is utilizing his athleticism more frequently to attack.

What’s wrong with Michigan State?

Michigan State does not have the same luxury of having multiple scoring options as North Carolina. Senior Matt McQuaid and Junior Nick Ward were spectacular during their 79-55 win over Minnesota on Saturday, however, consistency has been a concern for the Spartans. The Spartans three consecutive losses against Purdue, Indiana and Illinois highlighted depth and skill issues that can be very problematic come March.

The Spartans don’t have another capable ball-handler outside of likely future All-American Cassius Winston. The junior do-everything guard is playing almost the entire game and is fourth in the nation in assist rate, per KenPom.

The depth behind Winston is sub-par, and McQuaid and Ward need to have the Spartans offense set-up to give them good and open looks. Ward receives the ball a lot when he is in the game, especially since he is a physical presence down low, however, he consistently struggles with foul issues and spends considerable time on the bench as a result. Winston is the only initiator in the half court who can also create scoring opportunities for himself.

Tom Izzo likely really wishes junior guard Joshua Langford wasn’t out for the year and able to play, because his offensive ability would remedy so many of the deep-rooted Spartan issues. Simply put, Michigan State needs one of their role players to catch fire if Winston is struggling, and that is a lot to ask for if you want to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament.

Despite the concerns, by no means is the “sky falling” for Michigan State. The Spartans, who fell two spots to No. 11 in the latest AP Top 25, simply have to play efficient and mistake-free basketball. Obviously, the roadmap for Spartan success has more variables and less margin for error than they would like, but success in March is still possible.

North Carolina has more room for error given the talent on their roster. However, the Tar Heels will have to maintain their success, which will not be an easy feat playing in the ACC, but if they can continue this hot string, they might be deserving of a one-seed come tournament time.