Fantasy Basketball Top Plays and Fades, Monday February 11
Welcome into the Monday edition of Fantasy Basketball Top Plays and Fades! After a little hiatus, we’re back to break down the nine game slate on Monday night!
I know all my colleagues at CPR had you readers covered in my absence, but it’s time to get back on the NBA with a nice nine game slate tonight! We have some big names going tonight and we’ll want some nice mid-range plays to go with them as well. Some of the games have serious blowout concerns so they may need to be treated with caution. Let’s get to work with our Fantasy Basketball Top Plays!
Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Point Guard
Top Play – Dennis Smith Jr., Knicks
The Knicks are still shuffling their franchise int he wake of the Kristaps Porzingis trade and they are hanging a lot of that trade on their ability to sign two maximum salary free agents. The other goal their trying to accomplish is to develop a point guard of the future, even if it might not be their future. Smith Jr has been an afterthought through a lot of this season because Luka Doncic came aboard the Mavericks and immediately became their best player. The Knicks have been giving Smith Jr a ton of minutes and he’s been coming through lately.
Not only has he exceeded 30 minutes and 32 DraftKings points the past three games, now DSJ draws a sweetheart matchup against the Cleveland Cavaliers. The have been the third worst team on the season in giving up DK points and the Knicks are a bad enough team the blowout concern isn’t as high as it would be on a normal game. I think DSJ is a $7,000 player and is still slightly under $6,500 for the slate tonight.
Honorable Mention – Chris Paul, Rockets(I don’t understand how his price went down on DK)
Fade – The Wolves Guards
This might be a little broad and if one of Derrick Rose or Jerryd Bayless gets rules out, I would feel a lot better about it. However, if they have a three headed monster at the guard position, I’m not too enthused about using any of them. That’s a real shame too because the Clippers are the ninth worst team versus point guards on the season.
Now, the easy solution is that Bayless just goes back to the bench but I’m not sure that’s the case. Rose has missed a lot of time this year and Teague is still on the way back. If you wanted to play one, I suppose it would be Teauge but he’s likely not going over 25 minutes. This just seems like a situation that will end in heartbreak if all three are active.
Honorable Mention – Trey Burke, Mavericks
Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Shooting Guard
Top Play – CJ McCollum, Blazers
It’s been a rare sight to see McCollum in this article for anything other than a fade. Tonight is an exception to the rule and I really wish he hasn’t been hot lately because the price is a little high on DK. However, the matchup looks spectacular and McCollum blitzed the Thunder the last time he saw them for 31 real points.
Not only is the matchup a good one from the seasonal viewpoint, the Thunder have been the third worst team against shooting guards in the past 30 days, giving up the sixth most real points. McCollum has scored at least 28 real points in five of his last seven, which really bodes well for tonight. When a shooter like him gets hot, he can stay hot for a long period of time. Really the only flaw with him could be that the Blazers are on a back to back, but that isn’t something that would stop me from using him in this good of a spot.
Honorable Mention – Bradley Beal, Wizards
Fade – James Harden, Rockets
The dreaded fade for Harden rears its head here and I’m not sure there’s anything more uncomfortable than saying you maybe shouldn’t play one of the elite fantasy stars in the NBA. This does seem like a good game to come in underweight on the field for a few reasons. The first is the expense of playing Harden, which is still fairly outrageous. He deserved a much higher price when Chris Paul was out but that is no longer the case and Paul is up to full minutes.
Given the current situation, Harden averages 1.86 FPPM while Paul is at an even 1.30. That gap is significant, to be sure. The other factor that is significantly different is the salary. On DK, Harden is closer to double the salary of Paul and has blowout concerns. If CP3 scores 35-40 DK points, Harden would have to score at least 70 to make that a smart way to spend salary. Obviously, Harden has that ability every game but he’s banged up slightly on top of everything else. Give me Paul all day of these two.
Honorable Mention – Khris Middleton, Bucks
Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Small Forward
Top Play – Paul George, Thunder
He’s been a mainstay in this portion of the article but that shouldn’t surprise anyone because George should be the top three in MVP voting, if not outright win it. If you weren’t aware of how big George has been for Oklahoma City this season, go turn on the past game against the Rockets. He was masterful and now he rolls into a matchup with Portland that is set up perfectly for him tonight. He’s only averaging 36.5 points and 8.0 rebounds this season in two games versus this team.
The Blazers have really been pretty weak against the forward position all season long and they are in the bottom 12 against both forward positions. He’s scored at least 27 real points in his last seven games and always adds in the other stats to boot. On DK, they STILL have him priced over $1,000 cheaper than Westbrook. Yes, Westbrook is shooting for his NBA-record 10th straight triple double and even if he gets it, George can get his. There is simply no reason for that price gap at all at this point of the season. If DK won’t price him properly, I will continue to hammer George every slate and I believe George is a better play than Giannis Antetokounmpo in the same slot.
Honorable Mention – Kevin Knox, especially on FD
Fade – Otto Porter, Bulls
On the surface, it appears that Porter has fit in nicely with his new team as he’s scored over 15 points in each of their games so far. I can’t say I hate him here but I do think the floor could potentially be pretty low. In fact, we saw the floor a little it in the first game as a Bull because while he scored points, he did almost nothing else and barely cleared 20 fantasy points.
In a game against Milwaukee, I’m not always very happy to rely on a mid-range player who is totally scoring dependent. That’s basically what Porter is at this point and he’s likely the third option on his own team for scoring on top of that. I have. very hard time seeing the Bulls stay in this game for much longer than the first half and they could curtail Porter’s minutes if it does get out of hand. There’s not much reason for me to head to Porter tonight.
Honorable Mention – Kawhi Leonard, Raptors(if he decides he wants to play)
Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Power Forward
Top Play – Domantas Sabonis, Pacers
If Myles Turner gets ruled out before the tip of this game, Sabonis is going to be one of the chalkier plays of the entire slate. Even if Turner plays, I still like what Sabonis brings to the table against the weaker Charlotte front court at his current price tag. The Hornets have gotten crushed by power forwards all season long and tonight likely won’t be any different when Sabonis is on the court.
The give up the third most rebounds and second most assists to power forwards and they settle in at 20th in points in the paint surrendered. They also sit third worst in the rebounds in the paint category and Sabonis averages 7.7 paint touches a game. The minutes have been a little lower than I would like lately, but Sabonis has proven all year that he can mange big fantasy lines even in limited court time. If Turner is out, all these numbers just take a big leap upward.
Honorable Mention – Bobby Portis, Wizards
Fade – Larry Nance, Cavs
I’ve been using Nance frequently lately and he’s been making my lineups dance into the money, but I think this is a good point to hit the brakes with him. It’s not that I think his minutes would be threatened. It doesn’t appear that Tristan Thompson is all that close to returning and Kevin Love played all of six minutes in the last appearance so he might be lucky to hit 12-15. If this matchup had come across the board before the trade deadline, I would have been happy to use Nance but now he has to deal with a premier paint player – DeAndre Jordan.
Jordan is top 10 in paint touches and rebounding in the NBA and I really don’t love that Nance would be fighting him for rebounds tonight. Nance needs close to(if not right at) a double-double to hit value and I’m really not all that convinced he can do it against Jordan. He’s a player to use in the right matchups but when the price goes up and he’s facing off against somebody who is this good, it doesn’t make sense to attack it to me.
Honorable Mention – Montrezl Harrell, Clippers
Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Center
Top Play – Andre Drummond, Pistons
Center is loaded as it typically is but my favorite play is none other than Drummond tonight. I’m not one to leave Nikola Jokic to the side and Karl Anthony-Towns certainly has a great matchup, but Drummond has an incredible spot of his own that he should destroy in and he’s cheaper than the other two players on top of that. He’s also been in great form lately, exceeding 50 DK points in four of his last five games.
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The Wizards have been terrible in the paint and against centers all season long, as they rank ninth worst in DK points given up. The paint is where they’re especially vulnerable, ranking in the bottom three in paint points and rebounds allowed. Drummond sits second in the NBA with 13 paint touches a game, second in field goal attempts and third in points in the paint. There’s really no factor that goes against him tonight.
Honorable Mention – Karl Anthony-Towns, Wolves
Fade – Marc Gasol, Raptors
It hasn’t happened very often, but I’m not looking to attack the Nets with a big man who has a reputation unless you would rather play Serge Ibaka. Gasol was dealt to the Raptors at the deadline, and the biggest question was how he would fit into the Raptors lineup. If they played Ibaka and Gasol together, that could sacrifice some of the speed and length they had in the starting lineup. In fact, some NBA reporters had quoted rival league sources as saying they hoped the Raptors forced that lineup, making them a little easier to deal with. At least through one game, that isn’t what happened.
His first game as a Raptor saw Gasol only play 18 minutes. Now, that could quickly change as he gets more accustomed to the team and the role between him and Ibaka could flip-flop. Until we know it does, I’m hesitant with Gasol. It’s fine if that’s his role, but the price isn’t close to reflecting that yet. On FD, he’s the sixth most expensive center while on DK, he’s the seventh most expensive center-only player. There’s not a chance I would even think about Gasol unless he’s announced as a starter before the game tonight and even then, there is risk.
Honorable Mention – Steven Adams, Thunder
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