NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Monday, February 11
Welcome to the Monday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy basketball line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Sunday’s NBA DFS slate was loaded with stars but interestingly enough, only four players went for 50+ fantasy points including Joel Embiid, Kevin Durant, Luka Doncic and Josh Richardson. As a result of the stars failing to hit their ceilings in many cases, the winning GPP scores were right around 320 points on FantasyDraft while the cash line fell right around 280 which is certainly lower than we normally see on any given night.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Monday Slate Breakdown:
At first glance what really stands out to me on this slate is how many stars we have to choose from and also how much value is already out which makes fitting in a few of these stars a relatively easy route.
James Harden ($21.1K) is the most expensive player on the slate but it feels like at first glance this is the slate where the ownership really starts to scale back and folks choose to prioritize other stars. First, Harden has an injury tag, listed as probable to play with a shoulder injury, which right off the bat is going to tick down his ownership and after a sub 50 fantasy point outing over the weekend, my guess is the game log watchers will shy away.
Secondly, the continued emergence of Chris Paul ($12.9K), who has played 33 and 34 minutes in two of his last three games will lead the masses to scream “Fade Harden” with CP3 back on the court.
Third, is this slate is loaded with studs with Russell Westbrook, Paul George, Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Karl-Anthony Towns and Kawhi Leonard all on the slate so there is no shortage of pivot plays at the top end to anchor your lineups to.
The industry treatment of Harden is going to be really interesting to watch today because my gut feeling at first glance is that he will be low(er) owned than we would normally see him which I think could be a tremendous opportunity for us to go overweight on the field.
If you look back at that game against OKC, it is easy to see the 48 fantasy points and then look at CP3 who is priced $8K lower who put up 49 fantasy points and wonder why you would invest in Harden at this price point. Dig deeper though into that game and you will see Harden with his usual monster usage at 48.9% with 28 FGA including 16 three-point attempts and really you start to see not much has changed from the 70-80 fantasy point outings we have become accustomed to seeing.
What really capped Harden’s fantasy production in that game was the lack of peripheral stats, as he had a combined THREE rebounds and assists which considering this is a player averaging just under 15 rebounds/assists per game screams major outlier to me.
Now, I am sure folks will make the case that the peripheral stats drop with CP3 back which is only partially true as per 36 minutes the last two seasons, Harden sees his rebounds/assists drop by about 2 per game but he is still putting up over 11 combined rebounds/assists per game with CP3 on the court per 36.
If you take it one step further and remove Clint Capela from the equation we have 190 minute sample size with Harden/CP3 on the floor – and interestingly enough Harden sees a boost in rebounds, steals and blocks per game which would tell you that peripheral stat upside still remains.
It may seem odd to have spent this much time on James Harden since he is always going to be an elite play, but my gut says this is the slate people start to bang the “Fade Harden” drum which is odd considering he has gone for 70+ fantasy points in four of the six games since CP3 is back. If the industry buzz ends up going down this path, I think locking in Harden is an ideal first step today.
NBA DFS – Rockets-Mavericks Core:
After spending far longer making the case to play James Harden than I initially assumed, it may make sense to stay in this game and look at building a core around this Rockets/Mavericks game in which we have some elite stars and some under-priced second tier options.
On the Rockets side of this game, the price point on Chris Paul ($12.9K) continues to scream profit potential as he needs right around 39 fantasy points to return value yet is averaging 45 fantasy points in his last two games which would put him at GPP value of 3.5X at this price point. When these two teams played back on December 8th, Chris Paul dropped 40 fantasy points and while the Mavericks look markedly different two months later, the recent production from a fully healthy CP3 should give us confidence in going right back to him today.
The Mavericks are in an interesting spot, playing on the tail end of a back to back and three games in four nights while also seeing one of the largest pace decreases on the board which would seemingly scream to stay away but with this being a national TV game tonight, it makes for an interesting stacking spot in hopes the stars come out to play.
Luka Doncic ($15.8K) is coming off a 50 burger yesterday against the Blazers and has now went for 50+ fantasy points in two of his last three games with the new look Mavericks. Now the three games in four nights risk is real, but interestingly enough Luka has faced this situation 11 times already this year and his stats stay relatively the same from normal rest with his usage rate remaining the same while seeing a slight dip, 2 FP ger game, in 3/4 sets versus normal rest.
Tim Hardaway Jr. ($9.7K) put up 34 fantasy points yesterday against Portland and saw his price come down for this game despite his clear second fiddle role to the Mavericks star rookie. Now THJ as a pure scorer would feel like the player to worry about on a B2B/3 in 4 set but the stats this year would actually tell you the opposite. THJ has played 10 games in a 3/4 situation this year and has actually seen his FP/G increase by over a point per game.
The Luka/THJ duo is a clear two man show, shooting the ball 38 times yesterday for the Mavericks which was nearly 45% of the total shot attempts from the entire Dallas roster.
The fact you can stack Harden/CP3 with Luka/THJ and still have well over $10K per player for the last four spots on your roster, makes it a very interesting 2v2 mini stack option.
NBA DFS – Stars and Scrubs:
I mentioned in the open how many stars we had and how much value is seemingly already available which leads me down a path where you can easily lock in another stud alongside Harden AND Luka.
Paul George ($18.3K) is coming off a 69 fantasy point outing versus Houston on Saturday and will take on a Portland team he has gone for 53 and 64 fantasy points against already this season. That 58.5 FP/G average versus Portland this season puts PG13 at 3.2x value right off the bat and considering the $2K discount off his teammate in Russell Westbrook, this feels like the better point per dollar option tonight.
Now, I have spent the article so far telling you to play Harden and CP3 with Luka and PG13 so clearly I must have added salary cap in order to fit in all these guys right? Well, not exactly – we have a ton of punt value on this slate, with one key piece sitting right in this game.
Jerami Grant has already been ruled out for tonight which opens up 35 minutes at the PF position and you can easily insert whoever draws the start here between Patrick Patterson ($6.1K) and Abdel Nader ($6K). Grant has not missed a game this season so we do not have a ton of data to go off here but this is a spot where I think you plug Patterson into your sample build since he is $100 more expensive than Nader and simply pivot (if needed) once you get confirmation on a starting lineup.
Speaking of punt plays in the starting line-up – I cannot believe I am going to say this, but how do you pass on Marquese Chriss ($6K) starting at Center versus the Knicks? Chriss has now played 22 and 24 minutes in his last two games, averaging 19.6 FP/G which would put you at 3.2X value at this minimum price point on FantasyDraft.
Now, I am certainly not saying Chriss is at the level of the guys I am about to mention but is is worth noting the Knicks have gotten destroyed since the trade deadline by opposing big men as Andre Drummond put up 26/20 and 17/16 while Serge Ibaka dropped 15/13 which means opposing Centers are averaging 52 FP/G against the Knics over the last week.
Now, I am NOT expecting Chriss to get 50, but if you are putting a starting Center against the Knicks with 25 minutes+ in his path and he is stone minimum – I think it is a risk worth taking considering how it allows you another star in your builds.
Staying in this Knicks/Cavs game that only a DFS player could love, Jordan Clarkson ($10.1K) jumps out as a player that seems priced for profit, as he leads the Cavs in usage at 30% over the last two weeks while putting up over 36 FP per 36 during that time frame. Although Clarkson is coming off the bench, he has played 30+ minutes in four of his last five games and is averaging 34 FP/G in those four outings.
NBA DFS – Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:
Please note – this sample lineup is meant to be illustrative and should not be used as a Plug and Play lineup.
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G: James Harden
G: Luka Doncic
G: Chris Paul
F/C: Paul George
F/C: Patrick Patterson
F/C: Marquese Chriss
UTIL: Jordan Clarkson
UTIL: Tim Hardaway Jr.
Slate Overview: Very rarely do we walk into a slate where we have the potential for two minimum priced starters but that is very possible tonight and it opens up a totally different roster build which allows us to roster 2-3 stars on this slate without much difficulty.
Most times I take a top down approach in my roster builds and I know there are many in the industry I respect who take a bottoms up approach, starting with the value and this example here with Chriss/Patterson is a perfect example of how you make that work.
With this value locked in, it makes the Stars/Scrubs build work relatively easily and you can round it out in a balanced way with under-priced plays like CP3/THJ and Clarkson who all have 30-40 fantasy point paths.
Enjoy the slate all – we have 9 games so watch the news for more value and be ready to adjust as needed before lock at 7PM EST.
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