UCL DFS Breakdown – Tuesday 2/12/19

Welcome to my first UCL DFS Breakdown as a member of Fantasy CPR!  If you don’t know, I provide EPL DFS content weekly for CPR, and I’m pumped for the return of the Champions League to share some thoughts with all of my readers, so let’s get after it.

This is only a two-game slate, which is going to be the standard for UCL for the rest of the season.  PSG is traveling to England to take on Manchester United, and Roma faces Porto at home.

From a Vegas perspective there isn’t much worth noting besides that the oddsmakers are expecting two close games (-0.5 to Roma, and 0/0 for PSG @ Manchester United).  However, that should be the norm from now until the UCL Final.  The over/under in both games is set at 2.5 so there really isn’t a better game per say from a Vegas standpoint.

There is significant injury news though.  Neymar and Cavani are both injured for PSG and have already been ruled out, leaving Kylian Mbappe as the main forward.  Moussa Marega is also hurt for Porto, leaving Hernani and Tiquinho Soares as starters, but neither are great options.  Two other names to watch on the injury front are Kostas Manolas ($6,000) and Robin Olsen ($5,500) for Roma.

Enough of that, let’s get to the plays.

UCL DFS: Target Forwards

Edin Dzeko (Porto @ Roma, $12,500) – If you paid any attention to the UCL group stage, you know how good Dzeko was.  He scored five goals in two games along with two assists and 12 shots on goal.  Dzeko averaged 44 FDP per game which is 3.5x value even at this high price.

Porto is one of the weaker teams that advanced to the knockout stage, and Roma is playing at home where they will look to build a substantial aggregate lead before heading to Portugal for the second leg.

On a small slate, Dzeko is the kind of player that can control the cash lines if he goes off.  He’s a top target in all formats.  Stephen El Shaarawy ($7,500) is worth a look as a salary-saver.

Kylian Mbappe (PSG @ Manchester United $12,000) – PSG will be without both Neymar and Cavani in this game, which means Mbappe will be the main man on the pitch.  He scored two goals and added four assists in the group stage which amounted to a 26.1 FDP per game average.

However, without Cavani and Neymar, Mbappe could be in for some huge usage.  This is a tough match-up, though, especially with the way Manchester United have been playing under Ole.  They’ve only conceded seven goals in 11 games under new management, so Mbappe is probably best saved for GPPs.

UCL DFS: Value Forwards

Anthony Martial (PSG @ Manchester United, $8,500) – Martial has greatly benefitted from the arrival of Ole.  After not getting many opportunities under Mourinho, Martial has been a consistently productive member of the squad since his sacking with three goals and two assists in six starts.

PSG have been dominant in Ligue 1 this year where they don’t allow many goals, but they did allow nine goals in six UCL group stage games.  Martial is a good piece if you’re looking to stack a red-hot United team at home against short-handed PSG.

UCL DFS: Target Midfielders

Paul Pogba (PSG @ Manchester United, $9,500) – This is some criminal pricing here.  FanDuel is only taking into account Pogba’s UCL form from earlier this year, which wasn’t all that great.  He’s normally priced up between $11k-$12k on EPL slates because he’s been great over the last month and a half.

The midfielders on this slate aren’t all that great, so Pogba will likely have very high ownership.  No matter what types of lobbies you’re in, he’s going to be a tough fade given the way he and United have been playing.

Angel di Maria (PSG @ Manchester United, $8,500) – Angel di Maria has had a little bit of an up and down year, but he’s on the up right now.  He has scored in his last two games and has two assists in his last three games.

Again, this is not an ideal match-up, but di Maria should benefit from Cavani and Neymar being out.  He’s worthy of GPP consideration on Tuesday.

UCL DFS: Value Midfielders

Julian Draxler (PSG @ Manchester United, $7,500) – Draxler is super affordable on this slate under $8k.  He did not take advantage of his opportunities in the group stage, but he is playing well for PSG with three assists in his last four games.

He’s decent at collecting peripherals which he’s going to need in this game to hit value.  He’s one of the better mid-tier midfielders on this slate.

Nicolo Zaniolo (Porto @ Roma, $6,500) – Zaniolo was not a part of Roma’s rotation during the UCL group stage, but the 19-year-old has come on since.  He’s coming into this game with three goals and two assists in seven games along with an average of over 2 shots per game.

Porto only gave up an average of 1.0 goals per game in the group stage, but they were in one of the weakest groups.  This is a solid match-up at home for Zaniolo, and with his price, he’s viable in all formats as a punt.

UCL DFS: Target Defenders

Aleksandar Kolarov (Porto @ Roma, $6,500) – Back to my favorite defender strategy here; attacking defenders against lesser teams.  Kolarov is coming into this game in really good form for a defender with three goals in five games.

He’s going to get up the field on the attack in this game and the more often he does the more fantasy points he’ll score.  If you have the money for a top defender, he’s should be near the top of your list.

Also like: Dani Alves ($7,000)

UCL DFS: Value Defenders

Marcano (Porto @ Roma, $4,000) – First of all, any defender priced at minimum price is almost always worth a look.  Second, Marcano is really only behind Kostas Manolas ($6,000) on Roma for defensive stats.

Roma have not been playing well in Serie A this year as they sit in sixth and are giving up 1.3 goals per game.  However, I expect them to bring their A game at home on Tuesday, so a clean sheet is possible.

Also like: Victor Lindelof ($5,000)

UCL DFS: Goalkeepers

David de Gea (PSG @ Manchester United, $6,000) – David de Gea is catching a break here.  PSG will be without Neymar and Cavani.  Manchester United have also been good defensively lately and they’re playing at home.  All of this adds up to possible win and/or clean sheet bonuses for de Gea.  He’ll be somewhat chalky, but he’s in a decent spot.

Antonio Mirante (Porto @ Roma, $5,000) – Mirante is the value GK on this slate.  In three home UCL group stage games, Roma only conceded in one of them and that was two to Real Madrid.

Although they haven’t been as good defensively this season as they have been in the past, I expect them to ramp it up now with the start of the knockout round.  Porto did score 15 goals in the group stage, but that was in a weak group.  Mirante is my GPP GK pick this week.

Thanks for reading.  Hopefully, we can get off to a hot start with the return of the UCL!