DraftKings NBA Picks February 12: Can Embiid dominate Boston?

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – FEBRUARY 08: D’Angelo Russell #1 of the Brooklyn Nets reacts during the second half of the game against the Chicago Bulls at Barclays Center on February 08, 2019 in the Brooklyn borough of New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Picks February 12: Can Embiid dominate Boston?

We have a solid five game Tuesday on tap for our DraftKings NBA tournaments. Kyrie Irving has already been ruled out, so we know it’s going to be Boston value chalk night. Should we ride that out or chase the big salaries? There are three in five figures, but none over $10,500. Are any of them worth the cost?

I went after the $1 20 max, but only two of my ten lineups placed. There was a ton of failed value with Zubac, Chasson Randle, and Cory Joseph all coming up blank. The money line was at 285 DraftKings points. My best lineup hit 313 despite having both Zubac and Joseph. George, Lillard, and Giannis still propelled that lineup.

galexander21 took it down with 377.25 DraftKings points. He built with George, Markkanen, Nance, and a 4.6% owned D’Angelo Russell. He got nice value out of Chriss, Jordan Clarkson, Teague, and Saric.

I get asked a lot why I chose one player over another in a certain tier, so I am switching things up a little. Instead of just putting the plays I like from each price tier, I’m going to put in more of my thought process in here instead of just telling you what to do. If you don’t think my logic is sound, then you can make your own choice.

Tonight I am likely making only one or two lineups and sticking with it. There doesn’t seem to be a whole lot to chase at first glance.

If you would like to try DraftKings for the first time, use this link for the referral bonus! It is good for $10 in free DraftKings entry tickets with your first deposit of $5 or more.

PHOENIX, ARIZONA – FEBRUARY 08: Stephen Curry #30 of the Golden State Warriors during the first half of the NBA game against the Phoenix Suns at Talking Stick Resort Arena on February 08, 2019 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Point Guards:

Best Bets:

This is a bad matchup for Stephen Curry, but he has 101.25 DraftKings points in two games against Utah this year. If you still want to spend up at the point, Curry is much safer than Jrue Holiday right now. If you can get to Utah, it’s usually through the point guard.

Mike Conley has averaged 36.8 DraftKings points in three games with the Spurs so far this year. Conley has slowed down some without Gasol there. He only has 62.5 DraftKings points in two games without Gasol. This is a learning experience for all involved. I’m leaning away from Conley, but I might toss him in somewhere just in case he gets comfortable.

Honorable Mention:

Ben Simmons has played less minutes in Philly’s newfangled rotation. This could be a trend that sticks for a while. No one wants to tire their players out in February, especially when you have hopes of an extended playoff run. That said, Simmons could be too cheap to pass up with Kyrie out. On the other side of this, $6,900 seems like a lot to pay for Terry Rozier against Ben Simmons defense. I may be in the minority, but I’m completely fading Rozier here. There is value elsewhere, and $6,900 is not value anymore.

Trae Young put up a whopping 46 DraftKings points on the Lakers the first time around. However, Young only had to deal with about 16 minutes of Rondo. It’s going to be a lot different dealing with him for a whole game. I actually like the other side of this a whole lot more. Rondo doesn’t have the upside that Young does, but he has more than usual for this game.

Dark Horses:

D.J. Augustin had a big game in a nice matchup with Atlanta. There’s a chance he could do that against the Pelicans as well. I trust Augustin a whole lot more than throwing Rubio out there against the Warriors.

The value tier is pretty thin, but someone has to play point for the Spurs. Patty Mills still sees less minutes than Forbes, but his production has been a lot better. If you want to cover all of your bases, you can use both. However, both rarely hit value in the same game. There is also a timeshare in New Orleans. As with the Spurs, the backup, Tim Frazier, is a better bet than Frank Jackson. Honestly, T.J. McConnell may be better than all of them.

My pick: Mills(PG)

DraftKings NBA /

DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

Donovan Mitchell is tempting, but I don’t usually go out of my way to use anyone against the Warriors. Still, if you are going to, guard is the way to go after them. SG is pretty thin at the top, but this doesn’t seem like a day to chase after the top tier anyway.

Honorable Mention:

DeRozan has not had success against Memphis in any of the three games against them. Jimmy Butler is not a sure thing in Philly. Honestly, there is only one Sixers starter I would use right now. That thins the herd in the middle tear very quickly.

Utah is the best team in the league against shooting guards, so I’m off of Klay Thompson too. What does that leave. Terrence Ross. Use him. Seriously. Ross is the best play at the position by production per dollar. Curry, Holiday, and Mitchell will all likely outscore Ross, but they wont double him up like the price differential suggests.

Brandon Ingram is a solid play for the price, but I see him as mostly a cash game play right now. If LeBron sits though, I’m all over Ingram.

Dark Horses:

Once again, I like Evan Fournier in this matchup. The Pelicans are going to pace up Orlando, and that should help their shooters, Ross and Fournier.

Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart are the value guards to chase for Boston. There aren’t many scenarios in which Rozier hits value against Philly tonight. Brown and Smart have a much better chance.

My worry with Atlanta is that Kent Bazemore will keep chipping away at the minutes of Kevin Huerter. However, this matchup against the Lakers is way too good to ignore Huerter is a strong value pick tonight. You can try running it back with Reggie Bullock since he is the unquestioned starter for the Lakers already.

My pick: Ross(SG), Fournier(G)

PHOENIX, ARIZONA – FEBRUARY 08: Kevin Durant #35 of the Golden State Warriors during the NBA game against the Phoenix Suns at Talking Stick Resort Arena on February 08, 2019 in Phoenix, Arizona. The Warriors defeated the Suns 117-107. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

At some point that “load management” business is going to catch up with LeBron. This appears to be a good time for the Lakers to rest LeBron. It’s the Hawks, a game that the Lakers should be able to win easily. So yeah, I’m not paying for LeBron.

Kevin Durant has 105.5 DraftKings points in the two games against the Jazz this year. The Jazz are strong defensively everywhere, but KD is the guy they can’t handle. Don’t be shocked when Durant outscores LeBron tonight.

Honorable Mention:

Tobias Harris actually seems safe with the Sixers. Harris has 73 DraftKings points in the two games with Philly. That brings him to nearly 6x value. He doesn’t have the upside that he did with the Clippers or Detroit for that matter, but Harris seems like a more consistent producer in a small sample size.

How is Jonathan Isaac just $5,100? Isaac has at least 26 DraftKings points in eight straight games. The only thing I understand less than this price is how you can possibly fade him right now.

Dark Horses:

Speaking of unfadeable bargains, Kenrich Williams is that as well. Williams’ low water mark since joining the starting lineup seven games ago is still more than 6x value. DraftKings is giving up gifts again tonight. The presence of Stanley Johnson worries me some, but I don’t think Williams will lose minutes because of it. Darius Miller looks to be the likely candidate.

For once, I am off of Iguodala even if he is healthy enough to play. There isn’t much at this level. Your only chance below Williams is taking a chance on Spurs value of Davis Bertans or Marco Belinelli.

My pick: Durant(SF), Williams(UTIL), Isaac(F)

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – JANUARY 02: Julius Randle #30 of the New Orleans Pelicans pushes D’Angelo Russell #1 of the Brooklyn Nets while attempting to pass the ball during the first quarter of the game at Barclays Center on January 02, 2019 in the Brooklyn borough of New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Anthony Davis has 102.75 DraftKings points over the last two games, so the production isn’t the issue. The price we are paying for undisclosed minutes is. New Orleans isn’t going to run him that hard. This is a big spot for Davis, I just don’t think we can trust the Pelicans to play him as much as we need. I would much rather play Julius Randle at almost $3,000 less.

Honorable Mention:

I honestly don’t like any Spurs against Memphis tonight. The only ones I would consider are the two guards. Aldridge will likely be the focal point, but for all the wheeling and dealing Memphis did, they are still a pretty solid defensive team. If I’m feeling the urge to pay up for any Spur, it would definitely be Aldridge. However, why pay for Aldridge when you can have John Collins in a smash spot for $100 less?

The Sixers aren’t as weak against power forwards now with Harris in town. Still, Jayson Tatum sees a big boost with Kyrie out. So does Al Horford. The best part is that they are both very affordable. I would rather use one of them than Jaren Jackson in a tough matchup.

I want all of Kyle Kuzma tonight. He is way too cheap right now. Kuzma has 6x and 7x value over the last two games at this price. Even if LeBron plays, I will have a lot of Kuzma. Seeing Kuzma at this price also keeps me off of Ivan Rabb as well.

Dark Horses:

For some reason, Jae Crowder has owned the Warriors this year. Crowder has 77.5 DraftKings points in 60 minutes against the Warriors this year. We don’t always know when Crowder is going to get run, but if the past is any indication, he will tonight.

Daniel Theis is still a strong play with Aron Baynes out. Still, any upside Theis has is capped because his minutes are. You can still get 6x value out of Theis, but that’s not a guarantee.

My pick: Kuzma(PF)

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – AUGUST 14: Demarcus Cousins #12 of United States moves the ball against Rudy Gobert #16 of France during a Men’s Preliminary Round Group A game between the United States and France on Day 9 of the Rio 2016 Olympic Games at Carioca Arena 1 on August 14, 2016 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Centers:

Best Bets:

Joel Embiid has 105 DraftKings points in two games against Boston, which leaves him right at 5x value. No matter what is going on with the rest of the Sixers team, Embiid is going to remain the focal point of this team. He is still safe to use, and is the only five figure player that I have any interest in tonight.

This looks like a really good spot for Nikola Vucevic, especially if Davis is only going to play about half the game. The problem here is that Vucevic needs 47.5 DraftKings points to hit value, a mark that he has only hit once in February, and that was against the Nets.