FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Tuesday, 2/12 – Have No Fear, Play Rozier!

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Tuesday, 2/12

Welcome back to the Tuesday edition of the FanDuel NBA Breakdown! I’m “Thunder Dan” and I love playing and writing about FanDuel NBA DFS. I’m ready, as always, to help you get your research started for tonight’s NBA DFS slate on FanDuel.

My goal when I first changed the layout of the Breakdown was to create an all-inclusive article that gives you a place to start your research for FanDuel NBA cash games and GPPs.  When making my cash and GPP picks I always take into account salary, Vegas trends, ownership, and match-up and I always do my best to give you a clear rationale for why I believe each player makes a great GPP or cash target.

Last night was quite the crazy slate on FanDuel. My cash lineup was good enough to hit all my 50-50’s and double-ups despite getting a combined 14.4 FD points from Zubac, Parker, and Chasson Randle. Paul George came through for our cash core with a monster 80 FD point, while DSJ and Nance were solid with 41 and 32 FD points, respectively.

Tonight we have a 5-game slate on tap that locks at 7:30. I know I’ve mentioned it before but I love these medium-sized slates for NBA DFS as they are big enough for cash games and the perfect size for GPPs.

"The FanDuel NBA Breakdown is a first look article that is intended to be a starting point for your cash game or GPP research for FanDuel NBA DFS."

In order to win in NBA DFS, you have to be flexible with your roster construction and sometimes take things down to the wire before lock with late-breaking injury information. At the same time, I always warn against totally scrapping your original first look build, as sometimes the plays that you were on the night before or that morning end up still being the best plays on the slate.

Let’s take a quick look at our injury report and Vegas info to get us started!

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: First Look

Injury Report

OUT: Lonzo Ball, Kyrie Irving, Derrick White, Dante Exum, Josh Hart, Kyle Anderson, Aaron Baynes, Mo Bamba

DOUBTFUL: NONE

QUESTIONABLE: Andre Iguodala, Wes Iwundu, Jonas Valanciunas (immigration paperwork), Jaylen Adams

PROBABLE: LeBron James, Rudy Gay

This is about as clean of an injury report as we’ve had in quite some time. Kyrie is the only big-time name that’s out tonight (sorry Lonzo, you’re not big time yet) and LeBron is probable with another “load management” tag. I’m sure we will see a few more guys get injury designations at some point during the day, NBA DFS is always full of surprises, but for now, we have a pretty clear picture of who we expect to suit up tonight.

Vegas Info

***The Celtics and 76ers are both playing the front half of back-to-backs.

***The lowest total game is the Memphis-San Antonio game at 209. That’s a full 16 points lower than the next lowest game and the only game in which both teams are being paced down. I’m likely going to cross it off and make this a four-game slate if possible.

***The Lakers-Hawks game carries the highest total at 236, with the Lakers being 5-point road favorites.

***The tighest spread is in the Orlando-New Orleans game, with the Pelicans being 4.5 point home favorites.

***There are no double-digit spreads tonight. The widest spread is the Warriors (-8.5) at home against the Jazz.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Cash Game Core

Welcome to the cash game core section of the Breakdown!  I’ve been giving you a GPP core in the past, so instead, I wanted to provide you with a solid trio of players to start building your cash game lineups with tonight. I highly recommend playing cash games on a nightly basis to help build that bankroll.

Terry Rozier (7200)

I am already sensing that Rozier is going to be less popular in cash games tomorrow than he usually is when Kyrie is out. I’m not sure if that reflects his elevated price, recency bias (24 FD points in his last start against Cleveland), or just the fact that there are a lot of other high-priced attractive options.

I’m sticking with “Scary Terry” tonight as he’s averaged 14-5-6 with 2 steals per game in the 9 starts he’s made for Irving this season. That’s good for 31 FD points per game in 30 minutes per game and reflect his 1.0 FPPM without Irving on the floor this season. In what should be a close game with Philly tonight, I expect Rozier to play more than 30 minutes and I think he will thrive in the type of pace up game that the Sixers likes to play.

Nikola Vucevic (9900)

Vuc is my top center tonight on a point-per-dollar basis. Embiid is clearly the top option but his cap hit might be too much to pay without a lot of value on this slate. I love the matchup for Vuc here tonight as the Magic are being paced up here against the Pelicans and I think this game is both high scoring and close. He’s been a 1.44 FPPM player this season but has only played 31 minutes a game. I think we see him play closer to 34-36 minutes tonight which puts him in line for 50+ FD points and a solid floor and ceiling for our cash games.

Kyle Kuzma (6700)

The return of LeBron James to the Lakers lineup has jump started Kuzma’s game. He was struggling badly and looked to be running out of gas before James returned. But in his last two games, he’s scored 25 and 39 actual points and it’s easy to see why when you watch the Lakers play. LeBron gets his teammates so many open looks and Kuz looks much more comfortable playing off the ball and letting LeBron find him for open looks on the perimeter or cutting to the basket. With the Lakers having the highest team total on the board, I want a fairly priced piece of that total like Kuz in my cash game build today.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Top GPP Plays

For tournament plays, I’m looking for more than just 5x. I’m looking for 6-7x or more and we really want to chase those players with high ceilings, not just floors. We also want to take some risks on players that we think we can get at lower ownership than the chalkier cash game plays.

Joel Embiid (11700)

Embiid is my favorite star to pay up for tonight. While LeBron has the best matchup on paper, I prefer to go with Embiid here in a game that should be hard-fought between two of the best teams in the Eastern Conference.

The Celtics struggle with centers and Al Horford and company will have their hands full with “The Process” tonight. It’s a small sample size, but in the first two games since Tobias Harris arrived Embiid has a 40% usage rate with the Sixers’ new starting five and if you watched the game on Sunday they were running the offense through him on nearly every set.

Trae Young (7400)

Trae Young is in a great spot tonight against the Lakers. This game between L.A. and Atlanta is the only game in which both teams are being paced up and Young is easily my favorite Hawk to roster tonight. He’s been really good lately, averaging 20-4-8 over his last ten games. He sports a 26% usage rate this season and could finally play a large chunk of minutes since Jeremy Lin was bought out and signed with the Raptors and his only backup Jaylen Adams is questionable.

Jonathan Isaac (6400)

We are seeing a potential star emerge for Orlando here midseason as Isaac looks every bit the part of a potentially dominant young player. Over his last 8 games, Isaac is averaging 12 points and 7 rebounds to go with an incredible 4 combined blocks/steals, which has been good for 33.6 FD points. His minutes have been trending up and the trade of Jonathan Simmons to the Sixers signifies that Orlando is ready to develop Isaac the rest of this season. He has a tremendous matchup here tonight as the Pelicans rank dead last in defense against the small forward position.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Value Plays

For our purposes here at the Breakdown, we classify players priced at 5000 or less as “value plays.” Identifying value has been crucial this year on FanDuel as the new “drop score” rule has forced us into playing a lot of “stars and scrubs” rosters in both cash and GPP formats.

Marcus Morris (5100), Jaylen Brown (5200), and Gordon Hayward (5300)

Ok, I KNOW the cutoff is 5k for value plays but this slate is really lacking value. These three relatively cheap Celtics are solid values based on how their production increases with Irving out of the lineup.

Brown is my favorite of this trio because he’s eligible at shooting guard which is easily the weakest position on the slate in my opinion. He has averaged 30 FanDuel points with Irving out of the lineup this season. Hayward has averaged 28 and Morris 27. Depending on how your builds go today, consider this trio of Celtics at either SG, SF or PF if you need to pay down.

Reggie Bullock (4600) and Kenneth Caldwell-Pope (3600)

With Josh Hart out of the lineup, we should see Bullock and KCP both see plenty of minutes on the wing for the Lakers tonight in a pace-up spot against the Hawks. Bullock had a quiet debut scoring only 2 actual points in 30 minutes on Sunday, but he’s been a 20 FD point player this season and playing alongside LeBron could help him elevate his game. I prefer KCP here only because he’s a full 1000 dollars cheaper and saw 27 minutes in Sunday’s game against Philly. He tends to thrive in pace-up matchups and has some solid upside with his shooting and steal potential.

T.J. McConnell (4000)

With Landry Shamet shipped out at the deadline, McConnell’s role as the backup point guard and leader of the second unit is secured. He’s cheap once again and is always capable of 25+ FD points with his ability to score, pass, and steal the basketball.

Khem Birch (3600)

Birch continues to be a punt option for the Magic while Mo Bama is out. He’s only playing 15-18 minutes off the bench but has been producing at around 1.0 FPPM and has the ability to rack up blocks which adds up quickly in FanDuel scoring.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Game Stack of the Night

Boston (+6) @ Philadelphia (226 total)

I’m really excited to watch this game and I think the Celtics are going to give the Sixers a really hard time tonight even without Kyrie Irving. The Celtics are 7-2 in games that Kyrie has missed and are still scoring 113 points per game in those contests. Their rotational players are tough and their exceptionally well-coached and I’d be amazed if they weren’t able to hang with Philly tonight.

I’ll start with the Sixers side of things first. Since acquiring Tobias Harris (7200), the big winners on offense have been Harris, Embiid, and J.J. Redick (5700) while the biggest losers have been Jimmy Butler and Ben Simmons. I like the idea of using Embiid and either Redick/Harris as my Philly players in this game stack and I also mentioned T.J. McConnell as a value play earlier in the article.

For Boston, my favorite player to use is going to be Jaylen Brown. The Sixers love to play fast and I think that style of play really suits Brown’s game. I hope that Coach Stevens decides to bring him off the bench tonight because he’s been better in that sixth-man role this season. After Brown, I like Hayward, Morris, and Rozier in that order just based on their price points. Al Horford (7500) would be a pretty contrarian option with some upside but if I’m building this game stack I’m likely to use my center spot on Embiid.

A Brown-Hayward-Morris Celtics trio stacked with Harris-Redick-Embiid coming back on the Philadelphia side is pretty easy to fit under the cap and I usually don’t build 3-3 stacks that often but I think that this particular is perfectly viable tonight.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Positional Rankings

I’m going to go with these rankings again today. I got a lot of good feedback from readers saying that they liked this addition to the Breakdown so here are my rankings at each position. These rankings reflect how I would order players based on the likelihood they hit 6x or more value for GPP tournaments.

Point Guard

1. Trae Young
2. Terry Rozier
3. D.J. Augustin

Shooting Guard

1. Donovan Mitchell
2. Klay Thompson
3. Jaylen Brown

Small Forward

1. Jonathan Isaac
2. Kenrich Williams
3. Gordon Hayward/J.J. Redick

Power Forward

1. Kyle Kuzma
2. Tobias Harris
3. Marcus Morris

Center

1. Joel Embiid
2. Nikola Vucevic
3. JaVale McGee

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Sample Lineup and Overview

If you’re not familiar with how I wrap up the Breakdown, this is where I give you my thoughts on roster construction and briefly discuss my strategy for how I want to attack the slate.

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I usually like punting one or two spots on FanDuel with this year’s new “drop score” rule. Playing a lineup of all 5-7k players just makes zero sense to me and you’ll find that the guys winning consistently on FanDuel are going “stars and scrubs” pretty frequently.

Today’s sample lineup is a CASH lineup. Rozier and Brown are my favorite Celtics to use with Irving out and you’ll notice that this lineup is more balanced than usual due to the lack of value that we have on this slate. Obviously, Embiid and LeBron are two plays that have the highest ceilings, but I don’t think forcing them in tonight is optimal unless we see some value open up.

Remember, the sample lineup is for illustrative purposes and is not necessarily a “plug-and-play” lineup. This time of year so much can change in the course of 10-12 hours from when you begin to research a slate to when it actually locks.

PG: Terry Rozier (7200)
PG: Trae Young (7400)
SG: Jaylen Brown (5200)
SG: Kenneth Caldwell-Pope (3600)
SF: Jonathan Isaac (6400)
SF: Kenrich Williams (6400)
PF: Kyle Kuzma (6700)
PF: Tobias Harris (7200)
C: Nikola Vucevic (9900)

I hope you enjoyed my slate breakdown and I appreciate you taking the time to read my article. Be sure to share it with friends and fellow DFS players, leave comments or hit me with other feedback or questions on Twitter.  And keep coming back to FantasyCPR for the best free content in the industry! Good luck in your contests!