FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Wednesday, 2/13 – My Name is Jonas

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Wednesday, 2/13

Welcome back to the Wednesday edition of the FanDuel NBA Breakdown! I’m “Thunder Dan” and I love playing and writing about FanDuel NBA DFS. I’m ready, as always, to help you get your research started for tonight’s NBA DFS slate on FanDuel.

My goal when I first changed the layout of the Breakdown was to create an all-inclusive article that gives you a place to start your research for FanDuel NBA cash games and GPPs.  When making my cash and GPP picks I always take into account salary, Vegas trends, ownership, and match-up and I always do my best to give you a clear rationale for why I believe each player makes a great GPP or cash target.

Yesterday I had some mixed results. I nailed Trae Young, Jonathan Isaac, and Nikola Vucevic in my article but Joel Embiid was somewhat disappointing and couldn’t quite get the right mix of value plays. Delon Wright was a great value that emerged right before lock and I went 100% on him. Meanwhile, I didn’t have much Jonas Valanciunas because of the uncertainty of his minutes and the potential for him to be rusty so naturally, he looked great and posted a monster double-double in only 21 minutes.

Tonight we have our last big slate before the All-Star break with 11 games.  Tomorrow there are only 3 games and then we will have a full 6 days off until our next NBA DFS slate. What will you do with your lives during that time? You might be forced to go outside or talk to other humans (like in person, not in a slack chat) so remember sunblock and some important social skills.

"The FanDuel NBA Breakdown is a first look article that is intended to be a starting point for your cash game or GPP research for FanDuel NBA DFS."

In order to win in NBA DFS, you have to be flexible with your roster construction and sometimes take things down to the wire before lock with late-breaking injury information. At the same time, I always warn against totally scrapping your original first look build, as sometimes the plays that you were on the night before or that morning end up still being the best plays on the slate.

Let’s take a quick look at our injury report and Vegas info, which is my favorite way to size up the slate to start.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: First Look

Injury Report

OUT:  Aaron Baynes, DeMarcus Cousins (rest), Clint Capela, Tristan Thompson, Robert Covington, TJ Warren, Nikola Mirotic, Gary Harris, Kyle Anderson, Wilson Chandler, Fred VanVleet, Emmanuel Mudiay, Frank Ntilikina, De’Anthony Melton,

DOUBTFUL: Kyrie Irving, Tyus Jones

QUESTIONABLE: Ante Zizic, Andrew Wiggins, Cedi Osman

PROBABLE: Derrick Rose

Just to clarify something here I am listing Kyrie Irving as doubtful for tonight based on the fact that I doubt the team is going to rush him back with only one game left to play before the break. He’s not been given an official classification by the team yet.

Vegas Info

***The Celtics, Grizzlies, and 76ers are playing the second half of back-to-backs.

***Four of tonight’s games don’t have lines out yet, but the highest total so far is Denver-Sacramento at 230.5. I’d be willing to bet we see one or two of the Phoenix-L.A. Clippers, Houston-Minnesota, and Portland-OKC games come in close to 230 as well.

***The lowest total of the night comes from the Memphis-Chicago game at 203.

***The closest spread is in the Pacers-Bucks game with Milwaukee as 3-point favorites on the road in a game between two solid Eastern conference teams.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Cash Game Core

Welcome to the cash game core section of the Breakdown!  I’ve been giving you a GPP core in the past, so instead, I wanted to provide you with a solid trio of players to start building your cash game lineups with tonight. I highly recommend playing cash games on a nightly basis to help build that bankroll.

Kevin Durant (9900)

Remember when I said wings against Portland was a thing and then Paul George broke the slate on Monday with an 80 spot against the Blazers? Yeah, well now we get a underpriced KD in the same spot without Boogie Cousins in the lineup to steal boards and soak up usage. KD is easily the first player I click into my cash lineup tonight.

Kenneth Faried (6800)

Finally, the Manimal gets a price cut and I’m ready to pounce on him for cash game purposes tonight in a matchup against the Timberwolves. He’s been incredibly consistent since entering the starting lineup for Clint Capela, having scored between 30 and 43 FD points in 10 straight games. I’ll lock in his 35-40 tonight at this price and then spend up or down at other positions.

Jonas Valanciunas (5200)

Jonas is “still making noise, making noise” after his dominant debut with the Grizzlies last night (hopefully some of you get the Weezer reference). He made 21-10 look easy and he’s always been a really solid FPPM player, so the fact that he played 21 minutes in his first game with the franchise and his first game in over a month is really promising. Whether he starts or comes off the bench, I’m all over Jonas tonight as he really only needs 20-25 minutes to do some serious damage against the Bulls frontcourt.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Top GPP Plays

For tournament plays, I’m looking for more than just 5x. I’m looking for 6-7x or more and we really want to chase those players with high ceilings, not just floors. We also want to take some risks on players that we think we can get at lower ownership than the chalkier cash game plays.

Nikola Jokic (10900)

Do I like the Joker in one of the best matchups for centers and the highest total game on the slate? Yes, I do. Jokic has serious upside tonight as long as the Kings come to play and make this a game. The spread is only 8 points right now and the Kings have been playing pretty well lately so I think there’s a good chance we get a full 4 quarters of Jokic which could mean a massive fantasy performance from the most skilled big man in the game.

Jamal Murray (7000)

Another Nugget? Yep, I have to include Murray here as he’s still very affordable and in a great spot here. The Nuggets are getting paced up by the Kings and Murray has been really good against Sacto this year with an average of 27-4-5 in two games against them this season. With Gary Harris out again, I expect Murray to continue to put up a lot of shots with the starting unit and he is very stackable with his fellow teammate Jokic.

Montrez Harrell (7800)

Trez is trending up lately as the Clippers are giving him solid minutes at center after trading away Boban and releasing Gortat. Zubac is starting but hasn’t been very effective or earned more than 22 minutes yet, so I feel pretty good about Trez getting 30 minutes of run tonight. He’s such an elite fantasy producer than 30 minutes could mean 45+ FanDuel points and now that his price is back under 8k I want to jump on in this spot.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Value Plays

For our purposes here at the Breakdown, we classify players priced at 5000 or less as “value plays.” Identifying value has been crucial this year on FanDuel as the new “drop score” rule has forced us into playing a lot of “stars and scrubs” rosters in both cash and GPP formats.

Landry Shamet (4600)

Shamet was a nice acquisition by the Clippers in the Tobias Harris deal and he’s getting an opportunity to play solid minutes for L.A. right away. He’s put up 26 FD points in both of his first two games with the Clippers and I like him here again tonight in this game against Phoenix.

Jabari Parker (4600)

Will he be sneaky tonight after burning nearly everyone on Monday night? I’m certainly willing to go back to Parker after seeing what he did in his first two games with the Wizards and I’m willing to bet last game was more of an aberration than anything.

Delon Wright (4600)

This play is totally dependent on Mike Conley’s status, but if Conley decides not to suit up for the last game of the first half then we get a chance to roster Wright for another 30 minutes as the starting point guard for the Grizz. He didn’t shoot well last night but still made his way to 26 FD points with his rebounding, assists and two defensive stats.

Marquese Chriss (4300)

Chriss is getting a chance to reboot his young career with the Cavs and has shown some flashes of the player we thought he could be with two really good outings in his first three games in Cleveland.  Watch for Kevin Love‘s status and minute restriction and if ends up sitting out or only playing a half again, then Chriss should have plenty of time to get to 25 FD points again against Brooklyn.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Position Rankings

I’m going to go with these rankings again today. I got a lot of good feedback from readers saying that they liked this addition to the Breakdown so here are my rankings at each position. These rankings reflect how I would order players based on the likelihood they hit 6x or more value for GPP tournaments.

Point Guard

1. Jamal Murray
2. Chris Paul
3. Dennis Smith Jr.
4. Jeff Teague
5. Landry Shamet

Shooting Guard

1. Bradley Beal
2. D’Angelo Russell
3. Klay Thompson
4. Luka Doncic
5. Bogdan Bogdanovic

Small Forward

1. Kevin Durant
2. Kawhi Leonard
3. Mikal Bridges
4. Joe Harris
5. Jabari Parker

Power Forward

1. Montrez Harrell
2. Kenneth Faried
3. Marcus Morris
4. Bobby Portis
5. Marquese Chriss

Center

1. Nikola Jokic
2. Jonas Valanciunas
3. Mitchell Robinson
4. Myles Turner
5. DeAndre Ayton

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Sample Lineup and Overview

If you’re not familiar with how I wrap up the Breakdown, this is where I give you my thoughts on roster construction and briefly discuss my strategy for how I want to attack the slate.

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I usually like punting one or two spots on FanDuel with this year’s new “drop score” rule. Playing a lineup of all 5-7k players just makes zero sense to me and you’ll find that the guys winning consistently on FanDuel are going “stars and scrubs” pretty frequently.

Today’s sample lineup is a CASH lineup. You’ll the cash core plays in there along with my favorite value plays and some other upper-mid tier guys who I think have solid floors tonight. For once I have no one over 10k in my first build, which is not usually the case for cash games on FanDuel.

Remember, the sample lineup is for illustrative purposes and is not necessarily a “plug-and-play” lineup. This time of year so much can change in the course of 10-12 hours from when you begin to research a slate to when it actually locks.

PG: Jamal Murray (7000)

PG: Landry Shamet (4600)

SG: Klay Thompson (7200)

SG: CJ McCollum (6600)

SF: Jabari Parker (4600)

SF: Kevin Durant (9900

PF: Kenneth Faried (6800)

PF: Montrez Harrell (7800)

C: Jonas Valanciunas

I hope you enjoyed my slate breakdown and I appreciate you taking the time to read my article. Be sure to share it with friends and fellow DFS players, leave comments or hit me with other feedback or questions on Twitter.  And keep coming back to FantasyCPR for the best free content in the industry! Good luck in your contests!