Fantasy Basketball Top Plays and Fades, Wednesday February 13

Welcome into the Wednesday edition of Fantasy Basketball Top Plays and Fades! We have a sprawling 11 game slate on tap for tonight so let’s get right to work!

My goodness, is this slate loaded with plays. We have(in no particular order) Nikola Jokic, James Harden, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Joel Embiid, Kawhi Leonard, James Harden, Karl Anthony-Towns, Luka Doncic and all the Warriors. Needless to say, the stars are out tonight in our Fantasy Basketball Top Plays!

A lot of these plays are great tonight, but I’ll definitely try to bring some balance with no more than two big names that get written up. They’re likely to be in the Honorable Mention portion, but we’ll try to find some mid-range plays to pair with the studs. Let’s get into this big slate!

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Point Guard

Top Play – Landry Shamet, Clippers

I would be willing to bet that if I gave the readers 50 guesses at the names in this article, very few if any would land on Landry Shamet. I’ll be honest, I barely knew who this player was before the last couple of months. He was just a backup when he was with the Sixers but has been thrust into a nice role in Los Angeles and I’m planning on using him as salary relief tonight.

With the Clippers, they are missing the 26 percent usage rate that Tobias Harris carried. Shamet is an excellent three point shooter so far at approaching 42 percent in his rookie season. In the two games with the Clippers, he’s attempted six three pointers a game and with his ability to space the floor, he should maintain his minutes. He’s played 26 and 33 so far and now he gets to play the Suns, who have been in the bottom 10 against point guards and allow the seventh most three pointers. Bet on Shamet hitting at least 6x tonight for a very reasonable price.

Honorable Mention – Jamal Murray, Nuggets

Fade – Dennis Smith, Jr., Knicks

It’s not just about the relative poor outing Smith had in his last game. Given the type of player he is, volatility is to be expected basically all the time. I’m still comfortable playing him more often than not but tonight is an exception to the rule. On the past couple of slates, DSJ has mostly been chalk. You won’t have to worry about that tonight with the size of the slate and the fact that the matchup is far from good.

Not only is Ben Simmons a capable defender that could give Smith some trouble, Joel Embiid lurks in the paint on defense. Since being traded to the Knicks, Smith is seventh in the NBA in drives per game at 16.4. I’m sure the Knicks are happy to see him get aggressive but going into the paint with Embiid isn’t the matchup I’m looking for on an 11 gamer. Even if Embiid rests on a back to back(pure speculation), the magnificent Boban is there with his 265 foot wingspan to swat Smith. It’s just not where I’m looking to head tonight.

Honorable Mention – 

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Shooting Guard

Top Play – D’Angelo Russell, Nets

I’m trying to not let last game color my analysis here because when I did the podcast, I liked Russell a lot versus the Raptors and once it came time for lock, I kind of forgot about him. Well, 60+ DK points later he was part of winning GPP lineups and I was quite sad I missed out. Tonight is a new night and he gets another great matchup against the Cavs. One of the factors that made me like Russell the other night lines up well once again for him on this slate.

Russell sits sixth in the NBA in both pull up field goal attempts and points per game. On the season, Cleveland is in the bottom six in field goal percentage allowed in both the 10-14 foot range and the 15-19 foot range. Combine that with the fact that Cleveland is just a bad team in general and I think Russell is a great play again tonight. For anyone worried that Caris LeVert will start to eat into the usage, Russell has been almost the exact same from a FPPM view with LeVert on or off the court this season.

Honorable Mention – Bogdan Bogdanovic, Kings

Fade – Buddy Hield, Kings

This is one of the better games on the slate so I’m not sure this will be a hard fade, but on 11 games we have to take stands somewhere. I’m not crazy about Hield tonight for a couple of reasons. The first is the Nuggets have been solid against shooting guards on the season, giving up just the third fewest real and DK points to the position on the year. It has shown so far through two meetings, because Hield has only averaged 17 points in their meetings.

The bigger worry for me is the additions of both Harrison Barnes and Alec Burks. Barnes played 30 minutes in his first game while Burks played 20+ and it seems to not be a coincidence that Hield immediately dropped to 25 minutes. It seemed like a good thing that Iman Shumpert was traded out of town to solidify minutes but that went out the window with these two additions. Bogdanovic is a much easier play based on salary if you want a part of this game.

Honorable Mention – Jimmy Butler, Sixers

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Small Forward

Top Play – Kevin Durant, Warriors

I promised only a couple of higher priced studs and for me, one of them in the running for my roster is Kevin Durant. You have the nice advantage of both Durant and Russell being under $9,500 on DK so there’s a reasonable chance you can combine them with the super stud left. If not, I do think I’d have them ranked Stud to be Named, Durant since Boogie is out and then Russell third. Regardless, Durant is someone I haven’t played in a while since the Warriors have been sorting out how to integrate DeMarcus Cousins into the lineup. He also has plenty going on off the court if his recent press conference is any indication, but none of that stops Durant from being one of the best in the world.

I have attacked the Blazers all season long with wings and that will continue tonight. We already have word that Boogie is sitting tonight, so that just further concentrates the usage for Durant. Even if not, Portland has gotten scorched by players of this ilk all year. Ask Paul George how this team treats wings that can get points by the bunches. I don’t think KD has an 80 DK point game in him at this point, but you don’t need one and the price is too cheap.

Honorable Mention – Josh Richardson, Heat

Fade – Trevor Ariza, Wizards 

I do think Ariza is basically a lock for at least 30 minutes and the price isn’t terrible on DK, but on FD it’s a little high for my liking and honestly I won’t be using him all that much. I would expect Ariza to have just a mediocre game against the Raptors tonight and there’s not major factor that ever points to Ariza as a great play. I typically try to grab him in good matchups when the price is lower.

I don’t think Kawhi Leonard ends up on Ariza on purpose, but he will see some of the defensive wizard just by default. That’s not the matchup I want to tangle with because Leonard is still an excellent defender and there are so many other options tonight. You could talk me into him in cash as the last man in, but nothing further on either site.

Honorable Mention – Danilo Gallinari, Clippers

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Power Forward

Top Play – Pascal Siakam, Raptors

This will make my podcast partner a very happy man because Siakam is one of his favorite players and I think he’s one of the better ways to attack the Wizards tonight. I wanted to try and play a big man against them and the minutes between Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol seem to be getting closer to each other. Maybe Gasol will take over as he gets more used to the Raptors, but the one mainstay in this lineup down low is Siakam.

The Wizards are giving up the second most DK and real points to the power forward position this season, and they play at a fast pace. That should benefit Siakam quite nicely, just giving him even more opportunity to rack up the fantasy points. I usually only play Siakam when Kyle Lowry or Kawhi sit out, but this spot is an exception. With those two, you never know anyways. I’ll follow the minutes in this one and not try to guess between Ibaka and Gasol. Siakam is actually cheaper than Ibaka on FD and only $400 more on DK.

Honorable Mention – Larry Nance, Cavaliers

Fade – Blake Griffin, Pistons

There’s really not a ton to pick on with Griffin himself. Sure, Boston is a solid team and I don’t generally make it a habit to target players against Boston but they could have some tired legs being on a back to back situation. In fairness, the Celtics have given up the third fewest DK points and the fifth fewest real points to power forwards on the season. I tend not to look at that as much since Griffin handles the ball so much, so why is he a fade for me?

The biggest reason is who else is in his price range, especially on DK where the positional flexibility means so much more. If I choose to play Griffin on DK, that means I have to likely pass up on guys like Durant, Steph Curry, Luka Doncic, Bradley Beal and Devin Booker in a massive pace up game. I’m just not sure I want to do that and even on FD, I think I would rather spend up at other positions.

Honorable Mention – Paul Millsap, Nuggets

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Center

Top Play – Nikola Jokic, Nuggets

You’re likely going to hear this a lot today, but Karl Anthony-Towns has some really weird mojo against the Houston Rockets. In 12 career games against them, he’s averaging 25.3 points and 14.9 rebounds. That’s got a good chance to continue since the Rockets are still without Clint Capela but I can’t let my main man Big honey go by in this spot without writing him up.

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So far against the Kings, Jokic is averaging just four assists shy of a triple double and he’s accomplished that in under 28 minutes per game. Centers have always done well against the Kings and tonight should continue that trend. The game itself has a 230 total and only an eight point spread, which means the Kings should be able to keep it close enough to give Jokic the full run. If he does, I would be much more surprised if he didn’t triple double than if he did.

Honorable Mention – KAT on the high end, Jonas Valanciunas on the cheap end

Fade – Andre Drummond, Pistons

This would change if Al Horford were to sit on the back to back, but there’s nothing to indicate that happening as of this writing. If Horford can hold his own against a player like Joel Embiid, he can contain Andre Drummond. Now we have to deal with a very high price for Drummond on top of the poor matchup and I don’t see myself using a lot of him tonight.

It should be noted that Drummond has been on a tear lately but the flip side of that is the elevated price tag. I generally like to get off of players when you need their ceiling games to pay off their tags and that’s where we’re at. Boston has been average against centers so far this year but if we look at the past few games, Drummond has been feasting off the easy matchups. I could easily see Drummond ending at just 40-45 fantasy points, which would be brutal tonight.

Honorable Mention – Myles Turner, Pacers

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