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FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Thursday, 2/14 – Happy Vucevic Day!

By Dan Palyo

DENVER, CO - NOVEMBER 23: Nikola Vucevic #9 of the Orlando Magic plays the Denver Nuggets at the Pepsi Center on November 23, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)
DENVER, CO - NOVEMBER 23: Nikola Vucevic #9 of the Orlando Magic plays the Denver Nuggets at the Pepsi Center on November 23, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) /
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FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Thursday, 2/14

Welcome back to the Vucevic, I mean Valentine’s Day edition of the FanDuel NBA Breakdown! I’m “Thunder Dan” and I love playing and writing about FanDuel NBA DFS. I’m ready, as always, to help you get your research started for tonight’s NBA DFS slate on FanDuel.

My goal when I first changed the layout of the Breakdown was to create an all-inclusive article that gives you a place to start your research for FanDuel NBA cash games and GPPs.  When making my cash and GPP picks I always take into account salary, Vegas trends, ownership, and match-up and I always do my best to give you a clear rationale for why I believe each player makes a great GPP or cash target.

Tonight we have our final slate before the All-Star break. There are only 3 games tonight and then we will have a full 6 days off until our next NBA DFS slate. I am going to work on a first half in review article over the break in which I try to dive into some stats from the first half in attempt to get us a jump-start on the second half, but in the meantime I’m going to go game by game tonight with a quick breakdown of each game.

I am gearing this article towards GPPs today and I would not recommend playing cash games on a three-game slate very often.

"The FanDuel NBA Breakdown is a first look article that is intended to be a starting point for your cash game or GPP research for FanDuel NBA DFS."

In order to win in NBA DFS, you have to be flexible with your roster construction and sometimes take things down to the wire before lock with late-breaking injury information. At the same time, I always warn against totally scrapping your original first look build, as sometimes the plays that you were on the night before or that morning end up still being the best plays on the slate.

DraftKings NBA
DENVER, CO – NOVEMBER 23: Jonathan Isaac #1 of the Orlando Magic plays the Denver Nuggets at the Pepsi Center on November 23, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) /

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Charlotte @ Orlando

***The Magic are 3 point home favorites against Charlotte and this game has a Vegas total of 215.

Top Plays: Nikola Vucevic (10500), Kemba Walker (10700)

Vuc is my favorite play on the slate, let alone in this game. I think he could be the highest scorer on the slate tonight and you need to lock in those raw points. This game has a great chance to stay close and Vuc could score twice the fantasy points of any center on the slate.

Kemba feels like a game-stack only target. He’s really expensive and while he’s been hot lately (scoring 30+ actual points in 5 straight games), I don’t know that he’ll do it again. I’d rather pay all the way up to Westy or play Trae Young, but I certainly think Kemba is capable of being the top scoring point guard tonight.

Mid Range Targets: Jonathan Isaac (6800), Evan Fournier (6300), Terrance Ross (5900), Nicolas Batum (5400)

The Magic have some solid rotation players here that can help fill out of your builds or game stacks. My favorite is Isaac. His price has gone up, but he’s still priced where we can profit on a big game from him. He’s breaking out in a big way, taking more shots in the offense and has crazy steals/blocks potential with his long arms and athleticism.

Value plays: Khem Birch (3600), Isaiah Briscoe (3800)

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – FEBRUARY 05: Dennis Smith Jr. #5 of the New York Knicks dribbles down the court during the third quarter of the game against the Detroit Pistons at Madison Square Garden on February 05, 2019 in New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – FEBRUARY 05: Dennis Smith Jr. #5 of the New York Knicks dribbles down the court during the third quarter of the game against the Detroit Pistons at Madison Square Garden on February 05, 2019 in New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images) /

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: New York @ Atlanta

***The Hawks are 7-point home favorites here against the Knicks and the Vegas total is at 224.

Top Plays: Trae Young (8400), John Collins (8200)

These are always my two favorite Hawks to target on any given night as they have the safest minutes and largest roles in the Atlanta offense.

Trae Young is on a ridiculous tear right now and he’s really my second favorite play on the slate behind Vuc. His competition for minutes is gone now that Jeremy Lin is with Toronto and he’s playing with a ton of confidence. The matchup here is juicy as well as DSJ is known for his poor defense and the Knicks have struggled against point guards all year (even before DSJ got there).

Collins can be frustrating at times, hitting his floor more often than his ceiling lately. But every once in a while he reminds us that his ceiling is huge (58 FD points against Phoenix just two weeks ago) and again the matchup here is tremendous against the Knicks and their porous defense. I like the idea of stacking these two Hawks together in lineups tonight.

Mid-range targets: Dennis Smith Jr. (7800), Kevin Huerter (5300)

DSJ has slowed down a bit since he started hot with his new team. The Knicks can ruin everyone! But in all seriousness, I love DSJ in this matchup against another young player who can’t defend in Young, but I do question if he will get the minutes he needs to make value and his price is now up where we need 35-40 FD points from him.

Value plays: Kadeem Allen (4000), Damyean Dotson (3700), Alonzo Trier (3700), Alex Len (3600)

One or two of these Knicks guards is going to make value tonight, figuring out which will go a long way to getting the winning lineup in my opinion. I like Allen the most, but using him soaks up a valuable point guard spot. One strategy might be to use Trier and Dotson both as your shooting guards, hoping one of them has a big night and using the other one as your drop score. Alex Len is near minimum price and has solid per-minute upside if you want to fade Vuc (which I’m not planning on doing)

DraftKings NBA
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – JANUARY 02: Paul George #13 of the Oklahoma City Thunder celebrates his alley oop dunk during a 107-100 win over the Los Angeles Lakers at Staples Center on January 02, 2019 in Los Angeles, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) /

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Oklahoma City @ New Orleans

***The Thunder are 3.5 point favorites on the road tonight against the Pelicans and this game total is all the way up at 237. The total seems about right but I do think this spread is giving the Pelicans a little too much credit and this game has a better chance of getting ugly than the others in my opinion.

Top Plays: Russell Westbrook (12400), Paul George (12500)

We have finally reached the day when PG13 is priced higher than Westy. If I have to choose one tonight it will be George, based on the position scarcity at the SF position and the fact that he is playing absolutely out of his skull right now. I love Westbrook here, too, in a pace up spot. I don’t think I’ll have both of them in the same lineup unless I stack this game up and I do worry a bit about it being a blowout. I do think there is some merit in just locking these two in and grabbing all the raw points, but I don’t think a Westy-George-Vuc lineup is optimal.

Mid-range targets: Julius Randle (7300)

I am not playing Anthony Davis. He will probably play tonight but how many minutes and how motivated is he? Randle is a nice leverage play in a game-stack because he’s as cheap as he’s been in some time and an elite fantasy producer. If he plays 30 minutes in this game he should crush this price tag.

Value plays: Deonte Burton (3700) Ray Felton (3700) Tim Frazier (4400) Nerlens Noel (3500)

Burton and Felton are both cheap here and should pick up the slack for the absent Dennis Schroder with the second unit. Noel is minimum price and is really only in play if you think this game blows out. Frazier is a guy I always like but is a volatile play as the minutes distribution for the Pelicans guards has been all over the place.

NBA DFS
CHARLOTTE, NC – MARCH 06: Teammates Nicolas Batum /

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Sample Lineup and Overview

If you’re not familiar with how I wrap up the Breakdown, this is where I give you my thoughts on roster construction and briefly discuss my strategy for how I want to attack the slate.

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I usually like punting one or two spots on FanDuel with this year’s new “drop score” rule. Playing a lineup of all 5-7k players just makes zero sense to me and you’ll find that the guys winning consistently on FanDuel are going “stars and scrubs” pretty frequently. TONIGHT IS ABSOLUTELY A STARS AND SCRUBS ROSTER CONSTRUCTION!

Today’s sample lineup is a GPP lineup. Again, I highly recommend taking the night off from cash games on this slate. I will be mixing and matching my top plays (Vuc, Trae Young, George, Westy) with value plays and mid-range plays and probably stacking up the OKC-New Orleans and Orlando-Charlotte games.

Remember, the sample lineup is for illustrative purposes and is not necessarily a “plug-and-play” lineup. This time of year so much can change in the course of 10-12 hours from when you begin to research a slate to when it actually locks.

PG: Trae Young (8400)

PG: Kadeem Allen (4000)

SG: Deonte Burton (3700)

SG: Damyean Dotson (3700)

SF: Nicolas Batum (5400)

SF: Paul George (12500)

PF: Khem Birch (3600)

PF: John Collins (7800)

C: Nikola Vucevic (10500)

Next. NBA DFS Picks and Pivots - February 14. dark

I hope you enjoyed my slate breakdown and I appreciate you taking the time to read my article. Be sure to share it with friends and fellow DFS players, leave comments or hit me with other feedback or questions on Twitter.  And keep coming back to FantasyCPR for the best free content in the industry! Good luck in your contests!