Good day and greetings from your NCAA basketball best bets to win host and value gambler. We’ve got several games on this Saturday slate that I believe have good quality.
For those seeing this for the first time, I will be giving NCAA basketball best bets for the upcoming days games having written this article the night before. The lines I quote are the live lines at the time of writing.
Lines are very important and are key to the value plays. On average, 1 out of every 14 games moving at least 1 1/2 points from the opening number will land (the final score will be within the line move) so we want to make sure to get the proper number.
Thursday night the game I tweeted, St Mary’s at Santa Clara, was a prime example. St Mary’s opened 8, moved up to 12 1/2, and landed 11 (final was 66-55). Either side you played at the proper number was a winner.
Our overall record stands at 71-53-2. All times Eastern, here we go with our NCAA basketball best bets to win:
Maryland +7 versus Michigan, Noon
The road team has covered the last 4 games in their series and Maryland is on a tear the last 2 games, covering the spread in that span by a combined total of 34 points. The game opened Michigan 5 1/2 and moved up to 7, so let’s take the extra value and try the dog.
Southern Illinois +1 versus Indiana State, Noon
SIU has covered the last 7 in the series and beat INST at home by 15 in late January as a 6 point favorite. Nothing suggests this trend will end today.
Oklahoma +6 versus TCU, Noon
The away team has covered the last 3 in the series and in those 3 games the winning margin has been a combined 3 points, considering the overtime game a zero. Both teams have struggled recently ATS but Oklahoma should be able to hang within the number if not win outright.
NCAA Basketball Best Bets To Win – Coastal Authority
Coastal Carolina +2 versus Appalachian State, 2 pm
This game opened CCAR by 1 and has moved to APP by 2. CCAR demolished APP 2 weeks ago at home winning by 17 as a 3 point favorite, so let’s take the value in the plus number and take the dog.
Iowa State +3 versus Kansas State, 4 pm
KSU has all the stats here, winning the last 3 in the series and winning ATS their last 8 of 9 games. They also have a big majority of public backers and Iowa State is 5 points better on a neutral floor. I am trying ISU today.
VCU + 1 1/2 versus Dayton, 4 pm
VCU has caught fire recently, winning their last road game by 30 points as a 1 point favorite. They have also won and covered the last 3 in the series and I think have enough to win today.
Loyola Marymount + 2 1/2 versus BYU, 4 pm
LMU played Gonzaga very tough at home in their last outing and appears to be a solid home dog today. The line has gone from BYU pick out to 2 1/2 so lets take the extra points and play LMU.
Eastern Michigan +4 versus Kent, 7 pm
EMU has had Kent’s number recently, winning by 34 at home in mid January as a 1 point favorite. I believe EMU will have enough at least to cover if not win outright on Kent’s home floor today.
Elon +5 versus William & Mary, 7 pm
Elon beat W&M straight up as a road dog of 11 points and appears to be on track to fare well today also. The line opened 4 and since moved up to 5, so lets take this opportunity for at least a cover if not another upset win.
NCAA Basketball Best Bets To Win – Volunteers Come Thru
Fresno State -1 1/2 versus New Mexico, 7 pm
FRES has dominated the head to head series and have been playing fairly well recently. They opened a 3 1/2 point favorite and have dropped quickly to 1 1/2. I have not seen a reason why this happened (no injury news) so I am willing to lay the small number here as I make FRES an 11 point favorite on a neutral floor.
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Tennessee +4 versus Kentucky, 8 pm
Kentucky had a very impressive win and ATS streak going until their last game, a surprise loss to LSU as a 9 point favorite. The line today opened 2 and quickly moved up to 4 probably off that impressive run, but Tennessee is a better team and not afraid of the road. I am fading the steam and taking the +4.
Utah +1 versus Arizona State, 10 pm
Utah opened 1 and quickly the public switched favorites, but I don’t see why. Utah has covered the last 10 in the series and has covered their last 3 overall, while ASU has been back and forth. Let’s carry this trend with Utah.
CS Northridge +3 versus Cal St Fullerton, 10 pm
FULL is taking a large majority of the early public action but this may be a mistake. CSN is very capable of defending their home floor and have won and covered their last 2 home games ATS by a combined margin of 25 points.
Oregon +1 versus Oregon State, 10:30 pm
OR ST is seeing a solid majority of public support and that will most likely continue thru game time, as OR ST beat ORE on the road straight up as a 4 point underdog 1 month ago. Nevertheless, these small spread rivalry games are unpredictable and usually find the underdog winning the game.
Oregon has the better team by a small margin and I think will take down a victory, avenging their earlier home court loss.
That’s it for today.