Underdog NCAA Basketball Picks of the Day: Sunday, February 17th

Disclaimer: I hate betting favorites and love finding value in the underdogs for my NBA and NCAA basketball picks, so this series is dedicated to finding the best underdog Moneyline value plays for the day.

Our last installment in this series saw Drake come through with a big road upset for a very nice +200 payout. We’re back in action today with a nice 16 game college slate. Although the NBA All-Star game reigns supreme in the basketball world today, there are a number of quality NCAA basketball picks worth considering on the college side of things.

Without further adieu, let’s take a look at some of the best Underdog NCAA basketball plays for the day!

Underdog NCAA Basketball Picks

GEORGE MASON PATRIOTS vs ST. BONAVENTURE BONNIES – 2:00 pm ET

We start today’s Underdog picks off with a relatively low payout compared to most other games featured in this series. However, as I’ve made clear time and time again, I absolutely love George Mason and find them to be perennially undervalued by oddsmakers.

Lacking any real size, the Patriots are a scrappy and undersized bunch that leans heavily on veteran guard depth to keep them competitive in games. Despite their lack of size, they create a solid amount of turnovers on the perimeter and rotate well enough on defense to force opposing teams into mostly contested looks.

In terms of players to keep an eye on, Justin Kier leads the Patriots on the offensive end. Averaging 14.2 points per game to go along with plus rebounding skills and size for a guard, Kier helps fill the lack of a true glass cleaner for the Patriots. His backcourt mate, Otis Livingston II is a considerably smaller guard, standing just 5’11. What Livingston lacks in size he makes up for by being a crafty playmaker that does a great job at breaking teams down off the dribble and moving the ball to an open man.

Meanwhile, the Bonnies have had an extremely up and down season. Unable to string together a run of quality wins, the Bonnies have been lingering south of the .500 mark for the entirety of the season. Ranking 267th in the nation when it comes to pace (per teamrankings.com), the Bonnies play at one of the slowest paces in the country and try to impose a grinding and physical defense.

As far as Bonnies to look out for in this matchup, they run out a dangerous Senior-Freshman guard duo of Courtney Stockard and Kyle Lofton. While Stockton is putting up career-high numbers across the board in his senior year, he has seen his offensive efficiency dip significantly from years past and when he goes cold, he can have a major negative impact on the offensive flow. Meanwhile, freshman Kyle Lofton has quietly had a fantastic freshman campaign as second fiddle and looks to be a centerpiece on the Bonnies for years to come.

While he lacks the scoring prowess of the Bonnie’s backcourt duo, Osun Osunniyi is a MONSTER on the glass and averages an absurd 2.4 blocks per game in just 24 minutes per game as a freshman. A springy 6’10 big, Osunniyi is crucial to the Bonnie’s defensive success when he is on the court and like Lofton, looks to be a key contributor for years to come.

Once again, there isn’t a ton of value with the Patriots, but some value is better than none. While the Bonnies boast a very solid defense, the Patriots are simply the more experienced (and talented) team right now. Look for the veteran backcourt of the Patriots to be the steady hand that guides them to a quality road win.

The Bonnies undoubtedly have some promising young talent, but they need a few more years to grow and shouldn’t be able to handle what the Patriots bring to the table here.

Underdog NCAA Basketball Pick: George Mason Patriots (TBA)

RIDER BRONCS vs SAINT PETER’S PEACOCKS – 2:00 pm ET

As a MAAC alum myself, I have to show my favorite mid-major (that would be putting it nicely) conference some love here. One of the most unpredictable conferences in division 1 basketball, there isn’t a true standout team in the entire conference.

While Rider started off conference play sizzling hot, they’ve dropped 5 of their last 6 games and have steadily dropped out of the running for the regular season MAAC title. Rider boasts one of the better offenses the MAAC has to offer, but doesn’t play strong defense at all and often find themselves on the losing end of shootouts.

Stevie Jordan is the primary playmaking option for the Broncos. Second on the team in scoring and by far the leader in assists, Jordan is, for the most part, the catalyst of the Bronco’s offensive attack. He is prone to turnovers though and when he turns the ball over more than 3 times per game (he averages 3.1 turnovers per game), the Broncos struggle to win games.

Meanwhile, Saint Peter’s has been one of the worst teams in the MAAC on the year so far. Sitting dead last with a 3-9 conference record, the Peacock’s have struggled to create much offense outside of senior Davauhnte Turner. They don’t necessarily disguise their gameplan all that well as the Peacocks come out looking to slow the game down to a brutally slow pace and let Turner try to simply outscore the other team.

Speaking of Turner, while he isn’t the most efficient scorer, he does a great job at getting to the line and converting his free throws at a high clip. Over the six-game losing streak for the Peacocks, Turner has gone cold from the field and the offense hasn’t been able to pick up the slack in his absence. Defensively, Samuel Idowu plays a very solid undersized big role for the Peacocks, picking up nearly 2 blocks per game (standing only 6’7).

Although on paper Rider is the better team and the Peacocks have been reeling, the one universal truth of the MAAC is that any team can win on any given night. Look for Turner to shake his recent shooting slump at home against a very mediocre Broncos defense and for the Peacocks to get back into the win column behind his strong performance in this one.

Underdog NCAA Basketball Pick: Saint Peter’s Peacocks (TBA)

SETON HALL PIRATES vs CREIGHTON BLUEJAYS – 3:00 pm ET

Our last matchup of the day should wrap up JUST before tip-off for the NBA All-Star game. Seton Hall and Creighton have already met once before on the year with Seton Hall picking up a 63-58 win at home over the Bluejays.

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Seton Hall has had a bit of a rough go in Big East play, only going 6-6 so far. However, they have arguably the best win of any Big East team on the year in knocking off a potential #1 tournament seed in Kentucky. The Pirates are a deep and experienced basketball team with the talent to play with any team in the nation. While they have hit a bit of a rough patch as of late, they’ve rattled off 3 wins in their last 4 games and are simply too good of a team to continue playing .500 ball in the Big East.

Seton Hall will undoubtedly have the best player on the court in this matchup in Myles Powell. Powell is a dynamic scorer at all 3 levels, gets to (and converts at) the line at a great clip, and plays excellent perimeter defense. Although the Pirates have other weapons offensively to pick up the slack should Powell go cold, most nights they simply defer to him and let him do his thing. Outside of Powell, keep an eye on big man Sandro Mamukelashvili. Although he isn’t the most athletic big in the NCAA, Mamukelashvili is a physical rebounder with plus size and pairs up with Center Romaro Gill to provide excellent rim protection for the Pirates.

Creighton rolled into Big East play at a very respectable 9-4 while flashing excellent outside shooting during their non-conference schedule. However, since entering conference play, the Bluejays have gone just 4-8 while the deep ball has looked much more inconsistent. When the deep ball is on for Creighton, they become nearly impossible to defend as they have a roster full of capable shooters. However, they don’t play very strong defense and when the 3 ball goes quiet, they tend to get blown out of the water due to their inability to come up with any stops.

Ty-Shon Alexander continues his breakout sophomore campaign and has shown himself to be an extremely reliable and high volume 3 point shooter. However, Freshman Marcus Zegarowski has quietly been the key to this Creighton offense with his hyper-efficient 3 point shooting and slick distributing skills. However, Zegarowski is coming off an injury and subsequent illness and is questionable for the matchup against Seton Hall. The Bluejays will likely need to have some HUGE performances from their other role players if he can’t go.

Even if Zegarowski can go, the fact remains that Seton Hall does a great job at closing out shots on the perimeter and should be able to make life tough on Creighton’s outside attack. There always remains the chance that Creighton comes out of the gates shooting the cover off the ball and doesn’t let Seton Hall even get in the game, but don’t bank on that to happen. Look for a solid defensive effort from the Pirates alongside another monster effort from Powell en route to a win.

Underdog NCAA Basketball Pick: Seton Hall Pirates (TBA)

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