NBA DFS: First Half in Review – A Statistical Analysis

NBA DFS: First Half Statistical Analysis

The All-Star Break is here and while many NBA DFS players are likely crawling out of their skin looking to scratch that itch, I think it was a well-needed break.  If you’re like me, you probably have been playing some other DFS sports while basketball is on hiatus, or maybe just taking a break from daily fantasy sports altogether.

If you clicked on this article, then you’re looking for any edge you can get in NBA DFS contests when action resumes this Thursday night. My goal in writing this piece is to examine some statistics and trends from the first half of the season and look for anything we can use for our cash game or GPP roster construction in the second half of the season.

Players have changed teams, teams have changed rotations, and some players have started strong and faded or vice versa. For that reason, I’ll be devoting a few slides towards the end of the article to making some educated predictions based on what data we have and some logical assumptions that we can make about certain teams and how they’ll handle their players minutes, rotations, etc..

If you love stats, you’re in for a treat! Because I have a lot of them for you and some thoughts of my own on how we can use them to our advantage! Let’s get this stat party started!

NBA DFS: STATS, STATS, and STATS!

I want to start by looking at some of the most important DFS stats that I use on a daily basis. When building lineups for either cash or GPP lineups I’m definitely always looking for minutes and usage for the players that I want to roster.

Minutes Per Game

1. James Harden
2. Bradley Beal
3. Jrue Holiday
4. Paul George 
5. Blake Griffin
6. Anthony Davis
7. Russell Westbrook
8. Trevor Ariza
9. Kevin Durant 
10. P.J. Tucker

Players can’t score fantasy points unless they’re on the floor. One of the reasons that James Harden has been so hard to fade on a nightly basis is the fact that he’s playing a ton of minutes (37.4) every game.  Whether or not the Rockets look to limit his minutes down the stretch to keep him fresh for the playoffs is something we should keep an eye on.

Bradley Beal’s name is a little surprising to see so high on this list until you remember that the Wizards lost John Wall a month ago and have been forced to play Beal huge minutes in order to stay in games.

It’s no surprise to see Paul George and Russell Westbrook on this list as both had outstanding first halves and have been carrying their OKC team this year. Meanwhile, Jrue Holiday and Anthony Davis are names that could potentially fall out of the top ten as the Pelicans are trying to figure out what to do with their star players down the stretch and I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see both of them be given some type of injury designation and rested.

Guys like Ariza and Tucker are not great per-minute producers but the volume of minutes puts them into consideration on a nightly basis.

Usage Rate

1. James Harden (39%)
2. Joel Embiid (32%)
3. Lou Williams (31%)
4. Giannis Antetokounmpo (30.7%)
5. Devin Booker (30.7%)
6. Donovan Mitchell (30.4%)
7. Kemba Walker (30.2%)
8. Russell Westbrook (30.1%)
9. LeBron James (30%)
10. Blake Griffin (29.8%)

Well, look who’s well in front of everyone again? Harden’s numbers have been downright ridiculous and were boosted by Chris Paul missing 23 games.  Some might be surprised to see Embiid second on this list ahead of other usage hogs like Westbrook, LeBron, and Giannis, but he’s been a bigger ball hog than all of them. It will be interesting to see if his numbers stay this high even with the addition of a fourth scorer on offense in Tobias Harris.

Lou Williams is another guy that people forget about in terms of his massive usage because he comes off the bench. His usage number was boosted big time by the injury to Danilo Gallinari and then trade of Tobias Harris as he averaged a massive 36% in his last 10 games before the break.

Notice that Blake Griffin makes both of these top 10-lists. He’s been an excellent fantasy player in the first half and I have to remind myself to use him more often sometimes.

NBA DFS: Stats, Stats, and more Stats!

Fantasy Points Per Minute

This is one of my favorite metrics to use when looking at how dynamic a player is for DFS purposes. There are plenty of guys who play a lot of minutes but don’t produce much while on the floor. Meanwhile, these are the guys who pile up fantasy points when they are on the court. You’ll notice the top of this list is made up of most of the studs that we’ve already seen on our first set of lists. I want to spotlight a few guys who are getting it done big time and who might be lesser known by the casual player.

Davis + Giannis: 1.7 FPPM

Harden, Embiid, & Westbrook: 1.6 FPPM

Jokic + LeBron: 1.5 FPPM

Nikola Vucevic, Hassan Whiteside, Karl-Anthony Towns, DeMarcus Cousins, Jusuf Nurkic, Andre Drummond, and Paul George: 1.4 FPPM

What a collection of beastly big men we see here (and Paul George, too)! These guys are per-minute monsters but many of them don’t see a full complement of minutes on a nightly basis. Drummond, Towns, and George are guys who play heavy minutes but the guys like Nurkic and Whiteside see their playing time vary widely based on the opposing matchup or game flow.

Nikola Vucevic is a guy I have been playing nearly every slate. When he plays a full game, he usually easily cracks 50 fantasy points, but there are times his minutes end up in the high 20’s and it’s frustrating to pay up for him without knowing he will have enough minutes to exceed value.

Notice that Boogie Cousins is on this list, too, and we should continue to pay attention to how his minutes will be handled by the Warriors. If he ever gets a full 30+ minute role on that team he’s going to be absolute fantasy gold.

NBA DFS: Draftkings vs. FanDuel

If you’re playing NBA DFS on both Draftkings and FanDuel it’s really important to understand the differences how each site’s scorings systems. These differences lead to certain players being more valuable on each site. Look at the top 10 scorers on both sites.

FanDuel Top 10

1. Anthony Davis (60.4)
2. James Harden (59.6)
3. Giannis Antetokounmpo (56.1)
4. Russell Westbrook (55.2)
5. Joel Embiid (52.7)
6. LeBron James (51.0)
7. Paul George (50.1)
8. Nikola Jokic (47.7)
9. Karl-Anthony Towns (47.6)
10. Kevin Durant (47.5)

Draftkings Top 10

1. James Harden (63.2)
2. Anthony Davis (59.5)
3. Russell Westbrook (58.7)
4. Giannis Antetokounmpo (57.5)
5. Joel Embiid (54.6)
6. LeBron James (53.4)
7. Paul George (51.5)
8. Nikola Jokic (50.0)
9. Kevin Durant (48.8)
10. Karl-Anthony Towns (48.8)

So we have the same ten names on both lists, but a different ordering.  This is largely due to the fact that FanDuel scoring favors blocks/steals (3 FD points each, compared to just 2 DK points) and penalizes turnovers more (-1 compared to -.5 on DK).  For that reason we see Anthony Davis and Giannis jump up the list for FanDuel.

Meanwhile, Draftkings scoring really favors James Harden with the .5 bonus for every three-pointer made and the -.5 turnover penalty. Draftkings also has a double-double and triple-double bonus that makes Russell Westbrook an elite play on their site nearly every night.

These may seem like small differences, but when you factor in how often the pricing is different on these top players on each site, picking the right studs for your contests on the right site can make or break your night!

NBA DFS: Let’s Get Defensive!

One of the things I love to do is target players in GPPs that are defensive stat-stuffers. While points and rebounds are fairly predictable DFS stats, steals and blocks are much harder to project. Players who have the ability to pile up defensive stats can have really high ceilings due to their defensive prowess. Some of these guys are superstars who excel on offense, too, while others are guys who can fly under the radar and can be cheaper plays to use for your GPP rosters.

Steals Per Game

1. Paul George (2.3)
2. James Harden (2.2)
3. Russell Westbrook (2.2)
4. Chris Paul (2.1)
5. Robert Covington (2.1)
6. Jimmy Butler (2.0)
7. Kawhi Leonard (1.9)

Paul George has been superb on both sides of the ball this season but his emergence as a top 10 fantasy player has a lot to do with his defensive dominance. Chris Paul is a regular on this list and he’s actually under his career average of 2.2 steals per game right now. Robert Covington is a defensive wizard but unfortunately, he’s been out for the last month with an injury. Butler and Leonard being on this list shouldn’t surprise anyone as they are two of the top defenders in the league.

Blocks Per Game

1. Myles Turner (2.7)
2. Anthony Davis (2.5)
3. Rudy Gobert (2.1)
4. Hassan Whiteside (2.1)
5. Mitchell Robinson (2.1)
6. Brook Lopez (2.1)
7. JaVale McGee (2.0)
8. Joel Embiid (1.9)

It’s a big man block party at the top and Myles Turner leads the way with a truly amazing 2.7 swats a game. Turner is a player who has been trending up this season and his defensive presence inside had made Indiana a tough matchup for opposing players.

It’s no surprise to see Anthony Davis, Hassan Whiteside, or Rudy Gobert on this list, but some might be surprised to see Knicks rookie Mitchell Robinson is tied with for third in the league with 2.1 blocks per game. That’s especially impressive when you consider he’s only playing 18 minutes a game.

JaVale McGee has always been an elite shot blocker but has finally carved out a substantial role with the Lakers, especially now that Ivica Zubac was dealt to the Clippers before the deadline. We often forget that Brook Lopez is a shot-blocking force (probably because he stands out at the three-point line on offense) but his fantasy upside this season has been solid and he’s usually priced in the mid-tier due to being the fourth option on offense and only playing 27 minutes a game.

NBA DFS: Other Notable Individual Stats

During all of my research to compile these statistics for this article I came across a few nuggets that I found really interesting and wanted to include here even if they didn’t exactly fit into any of the categories of statistics that I wanted to discuss.

Assist Percentage

Among players with enough minutes to qualify Trae Young and D’Angelo Russell rank 5th and 6th respectively in assist percentage at 39%. That simply means that while they are on the floor they are responsible for assisting on nearly 40% on all their team’s made field goals. I was pretty impressed by this and a little surprised as I tend to think of both of these young players are scorers more than passers, but Young’s 7.6 assists are good for 11th best in the league, while Russell’s 6.6 has him 17th.

Young and Russell are both players who have been trending up and part of the reason why is that they are racking up points AND assists in a major way.

True Rebounding Rate

This statistic measures the percentage of available rebounds that a player grabs while they are on the court. Rebounds are really an underrated DFS stat in my opinion. They are worth 1.2 points on all sites and one of the most predictable stats in the NBA. Unlike assists, players aren’t relying on other players to accrue this stat.

Players with a 22% or better TRR are Hassan Whiteside (25.9), Andre Drummond (24.7), DeAndre Jordan (23.6), Rudy Gobert (22.2) and…ED DAVIS (25.5)!!!  Yes, Ed Davis is a more efficient rebounder than all of these well-known rebounding machines other than Whiteside. That’s what makes him such an attractive punt play when we think he’s going to get enough minutes because you know that Big Ed is going to be cleaning the boards when he’s on the floor.

NBA DFS: Team Stats

On an individual basis, we like to try to target specific positions against specific teams using the metric of DVP (Defense vs. Position). However, at times I’ve found this metric to be noisy considering that in today’s modern NBA James Harden really isn’t a shooting guard and Giannis Antetokounmpo can play everything from point guard to center during the course of a game.

Instead, I’d like to take a big picture look at the teams we want to target with bad overall defenses and those with good defenses that we should avoid.

Worst Team Defenses (by defensive rating)

     30. Cleveland (116.3)

     29. Phoenix (113.9)

     28. New York Knicks (112.6)

     27. Atlanta (112.6)

     26. Washington (112.4)

There’s my Cleveland Cavaliers at the top of this list (and the bottom of the league) in defensive rating! If you’ve been picking on these bad teams, you’ve been doing it right! I don’t expect any of these teams to get any better on defense any time soon!

Best Team Defenses (by defensive rating)

1. Milwaukee (103.5)
2. Indiana (104.1)
3. OKC (105.2)
4. Utah (105.4)
5. Boston (105.7)

The Bucks and Pacers top our list of best defenses followed by the Thunder, Jazz, and Celtics. It’s no surprise that they are all good teams and playoff contenders and with the exception of Boston all of them have elite rim protection inside from shot blockers.

NBA DFS: Team Stats

If you read my daily breakdowns for FanDuel often, you’ll notice I will mention “pace-up spots” quite often in my write-ups for individual players or when I’m justifying a favorite game to stack up. Teams that play at a faster pace have more offensive possessions during a game.

Simply stated, that means more shot attempts, more rebounds, and more turnovers during the course of the game.  Fast-paced games aren’t the only games we want to target, but they are usually more attractive for fantasy purposes because of the potential for more counting stats.

Fastest Paced Teams

1. Atlanta
2. Sacramento
3. OKC
4. L.A. Lakers
5. Milwaukee
6. New Orleans
7. Philadelphia
8. Washington

Slowest Paced Teams

1. Memphis
2. Cleveland
3. Houston
4. Denver
5. Indiana
6. Orlando
7. Miami
8. Detroit

When you look at pace and defensive rating together, a few teams really stand out. Atlanta plays at the fastest pace in the league and is a bottom 5 defense. The other team to make both lists is Washington, which plays at the 8th fastest pace and has the 5th worst defensive rating.

Meanwhile, OKC and Milwaukee play fast but are also elite defensive teams so be careful when targeting players who are being paced up in those matchups.

Of the slow-paced teams, we see the Cavaliers near the top of the list. Their defensive rating is 30th in the league but they are playing slow, which is sometimes why I don’t always target them in full-game stacks.  Memphis, Indiana, and Denver are all teams that I usually avoid targeting with players are they are solid defensive teams that also play slow.

NBA DFS: Trade Deadline Impacts

I wanted to leave you with some of my takeaways from the trade deadline last week and how they are going to affect NBA DFS for the rest of the season. In no particular order here are my thoughts on the deals that did or didn’t happen at the deadline.

Avoid Anthony Davis

One of the biggest deals that didn’t happen was when Davis wasn’t moved by New Orleans last week. He has since returned to the court for the Pelicans but hasn’t looked the same out there. He’s had his minutes limited and there’s been talk of him sitting out back-to-backs. He left the other night with a thigh contusion (basically a bad bruise) and I just have no patience for the type of drama that is going to surround him for the rest of the season.

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Players to Target on New Teams

Bobby Portis and Jabari Parker were traded to the Washington Wizards and immediately made a big impact on their rotation. Both guys are coming off the bench, but playing well and have shown some nice chemistry having played on the same bench unit earlier this season in Chicago. Meanwhile, Otto Porter has been great for Chicago averaging 22-6-2 for the Bulls in four games since coming over in the deal that sent Portis and Parker to Washington. This may end up being a deal that really helped all three of the players involved from a fantasy perspective.

Landry Shamet has averaged 13-2-3 in three games for the Clippers since coming over in the Tobias Harris trade. He’s playing 28 minutes a game and started the Clippers last game before the break. I like his game and I’m going to continue to target him while he’s cheap.

Reggie Bullock was acquired by the Lakers from Detroit and immediately played 30 and 35 minutes for L.A. in his first two games with the team. The Lakers badly need his three-point shooting and perimeter defense. After a 2-point dud in his first game, he bounced back in a big way with 15-5 and 3 blocks/steals against the Hawks and I expect him to be a solid value play going forward.

Harrison Barnes is not a guy that I want to have to use in DFS mainly because he’s so scoring dependent and lacks peripheral stats on most nights. However, since coming to the Kings he’s been given a starting spot and a solid 36 minutes a game. It appears that Sacramento likes him enough to make him a building block for their franchise and he’s usually cheap enough to use in DFS for a guy who can score 20 points pretty regularly and grab enough boards to exceed value. I’m reluctantly interested.

Last but not least we have Dennis Smith Jr., who was the main asset acquired the Knicks in the Kristaps Porzingis trade. Smith is a dynamic young guard who has fought bouts of inconsistency and been knocked for his poor defense. He was averaged 16-3-4 for the Mavericks through 32 games this season but has increased those numbers to 19-3-7 in 7 games for the Knicks. His usage rate has gone from 23% in Dallas to 27% in New York and his assist rate also saw an increase from 24% to 32%. I’m definitely interested in seeing if these numbers are sustainable for Smith or if he will regress back to what he was doing in Dallas.

Thanks so much for taking the time to read my stat breakdown and remember to check out my daily FanDuel breakdowns for the rest of the NBA season! Oh, and I’ll be breaking down MLB DFS here at FantasyCPR all Spring and Summer long, too!