DraftKings NBA Picks February 21: Harden breaks the slate

CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA – FEBRUARY 17: Team Giannis stands during pregame ceremonies before playing against Team LeBron during the NBA All-Star game as part of the 2019 NBA All-Star Weekend at Spectrum Center on February 17, 2019 in Charlotte, North Carolina. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2019 NBAE (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Picks February 21: Harden breaks the slate

Welcome back from the break! There are six games on Thursday for the return of DraftKings NBA. Some stars are out. Some key pieces may return. How do we handle all of this? By paying for a too cheap James Harden and figuring out the rest later.

Did you guys check out some NHL and PGA over the break? I did, and thanks to our advice right here at Fantasy CPR, I was able to add a little bit to my bankroll for the stretch run of the NBA season. Just because the NBA is back up and running doesn’t mean we need to ignore the friends we made over the break, right?

I get asked a lot why I chose one player over another in a certain tier, so I am switching things up a little. Instead of just putting the plays I like from each price tier, I’m going to put in more of my thought process in here instead of just telling you what to do. If you don’t think my logic is sound, then you can make your own choice.

Tonight is a night to build a few lineups. I’m eyeballing the gigantic $5 GPP. Of course, there are going to be some that max out the 150 entries. I much prefer the 20 max. However, this huge prize pool is enough to lure me in for at least a few lineups.

If you would like to try DraftKings for the first time, use this link for the referral bonus! It is good for $10 in free DraftKings entry tickets with your first deposit of $5 or more.

BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS – JANUARY 09: Kyrie Irving #11 of the Boston Celtics looks on during the first half of the game against the Indiana Pacers at TD Garden on January 09, 2019 in Boston, Massachusetts. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Kyrie Irving looked good in the All Star game, and he looked good in the first two meetings against the Bucks, putting up 87 DraftKings points in those games. The only issue with that is that would still leave Irving short of the 5x value we covet. Stephen Curry is a much better use of the salary against a Kings team that he has scorched for 118 DraftKings points in 74 minutes this year.

Damian Lillard has at least 43 DraftKings points, or 5x value, in ten of the last 12 games. Do you really think Brooklyn can hold him under that? Me either.

Honorable Mention:

I will admit that Ben Simmons is tempting at this price, but his lack of production fantasy wise with Harris there is still taking me away from this. Especially when Chris Paul has 90.5 DraftKings points in 67 minutes against the Lakers this year.

Lonzo Ball may return, but the Lakers are keeping pretty quiet about it. Rajon Rondo still looks like a safe play, even against Chris Paul defense. Rondo’s points lie in steals and assists, so I still see him having a good game for the price.

Jordan Clarkson went bonkers on the Nets in triple overtime right before the break. If his hot streak carries over, he has another dream matchup with the Suns. You could also use Caris LeVert in this tier since the Nets look like they’re going to play him 30 minutes. This is a great matchup against Portland, so LeVert could be a bargain at $5,100.

Dark Horses:

Collin Sexton doesn’t have the high ceiling that Clarkson has, but his floor may be better, and he will be much lower owned. Sexton is guaranteed more minutes against the same shaky Suns D. I may even stack the Cleveland backcourt in a lineup or two. This would be the place to do it. On the other side of this, Tyler Johnson is a strong option too. After all, someone has to play point for Phoenix.

I don’t really trust the Suns backup situation at all, but it was Jamal Crawford, not Elie Okobo, who thrived with Johnson’s ankle ailing. Crawford probably wont play more than 20 minutes, but he only needed 16 to rack up 36.25 DraftKings points a week ago. That said, there is enough other value out there without messing with this situation.

My pick: Sexton(PG), LeVert(UTIL)

CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA – FEBRUARY 16: Devin Booker #1 of the Phoenix Suns shoots during the MTN DEW 3-Point Contest as part of the 2019 NBA All-Star Weekend at Spectrum Center on February 16, 2019 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

Yes, I’m going to be that guy that says James Harden looks cheap at $11,600. Did his price go down because of the lackluster All Star Game? It sure isn’t because of the opponent. The Lakers are horrible against shooting guards. Harden’s getting at least 30 real points here. The only question is how much more than 30 he gets. I don’t see a good reason to fade Harden. Get your separation elsewhere. Want more proof? Harden has averaged 74.1 DraftKings points in three games against the Lakers this year. Chris Paul played in two of those.

D’Angelo Russell is going to be very popular tonight. Just remember that he would have been a total bust had that game not gone into triple overtime. Russell was sitting under 4x value at the end of regulation. I expect a solid game from him, but I don’t know if he hits 50 again.

Honorable Mention:

It may be more worth our while to roll out Devin Booker against a Cleveland team that can’t defend the perimeter. Any way you look at it, Russell still has the higher upside, but Booker may be a little safer.

Jimmy Butler has actually put up more DraftKings points than Ben Simmons with Harris in the fold. He is worth considering at his price point. C.J. McCollum entered the break on a tear, but can he keep it up afterwards? This is a tough play for me considering how good Brooklyn has been on the wings defensively.

The rest of the middle tier is littered with options that have tough matchups. However, Buddy Hield is the pick from this litter since he has averaged 43.3 DraftKings points in three meetings with the Warriors. Klay only has 39.3. At this price point, that makes both of them good plays if you want to fit both in there.

Dark Horses:

Surprisingly, the arrival of Harris hasn’t affected the playing time of J.J. Redick. It hasn’t really affected his output either. Redick put up 31.75 DraftKings points in the first meeting against Miami. Don’t be surprised if he does it again.

I understand wanting to play Dion Waiters now that he is getting starter’s minutes, but Bogdan Bogdanovic is too cheap here. Bogdanovic has averaged 27.6 DraftKings points in the three games against the Warriors so far. Don’t go thinking the new arrivals have hurt either Bogdanovic hasn’t been below 5x value since February 4th.

We’ve established the the Lakers struggle against shooting guards. That means fire up Eric Gordon as a value play too. Even better than him could be three point champion Joe Harris. Harris has at least 29 DraftKings points in four straight games. Reggie Bullock is a nice play starting for the Lakers as well.

My pick: Harden(SG), Booker(G), Harris(SF), Bogdanovic(F)

CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA – FEBRUARY 17: Kevin Durant #35 of the Golden State Warriors and Team LeBron reacts in the second quarter during the NBA All-Star game as part of the 2019 NBA All-Star Weekend at Spectrum Center on February 17, 2019 in Charlotte, North Carolina. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

You can play LeBron if you want, but he only has 89 DraftKings points in two games against Houston this year. I would rather go with Kevin Durant. Durant is $1,300 cheaper and has mauled the Kings for 182.5 DraftKings points in three games this year.

Honorable Mention:

If you aren’t considering Simmons or Butler, this thins out quickly. Tobias Harris is a strong play considering he put up 83.25 DraftKings points in two games against Miami earlier this year. Harris also has topped 40 DraftKings points in three of his five games as a Sixer.

Kyle Kuzma was the MVP of the Rising Stars Challenge, and could put up a gaudy stat line against Houston as well. Kuzma has averaged 38.1 DraftKings points in three games against Houston this year.

With the way Kelly Oubre is playing, he is a very tempting option against the Cavs. However, if T.J. Warren makes his return, I like this a lot less. Then it would be better to move down and across the court to Cedi Osman.

Dark Horses:

Harrison Barnes had his first double double as a King just before the break. I don’t normally go out of my way to use people against the Warriors, but the Kings have managed to stick with them all season. Barnes has a 31.7 DraftKings point average in three games against the Warriors as a member of Dallas. If he gets anywhere near that tomorrow, he is approaching 7x value for this price!

There are always values at small forward. As you already know, Iguodala is one of my favorite value picks. He has 42.25 DraftKings points in two games against the Kings, which leaves him right around 6x value. Allen Crabbe has also regained a nice role for the Nets, and he plays more minutes for around the same price.

My pick: N/A

CHARLOTTE, NC – NOVEMBER 26: Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 of the Milwaukee Bucks runs onto the court against the Charlotte Hornets before their game at Spectrum Center on November 26, 2018 in Charlotte, North Carolina. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Giannis against Boston is enough to give us some pause here. In two games against the Celtics so far, Giannis has 107.25 DraftKings points. That’s a total right around 5x value. He doesn’t have the upside of Harden though. However, if you are looking for a stud to pair with Harden, Giannis deserves as much consideration as Curry or Durant.

Honorable Mention:

Larry Nance headed into the break strong, but fell kind of flat against Brooklyn right before we left. His price is still as high as ever, but this matchup with Cleveland is one of the best he can get. So was Brooklyn. I want to trust Nance here, especially with the weakness of the rest of the Cleveland front.

I love this spot for Kenneth Faried, but how much is Capela going to cut into his playing time? That does make me nervous because P.J. Tucker has played well for the Rockets. Still, Faried has at least 28 DraftKings points in every game as a Rocket.

Draymond Green seems cheap here. He has 71.75 DraftKings points in two games against the Kings so far. I would say that Jayson Tatum has more upside in this situation though. Tatum seems a little underpriced here. I do like Bagley, but he is so very inconsistent.

Dark Horses:

Marquese Chriss is probably still too cheap. All he needed was a chance to play. Those chances will come to an end soon with Tristan Thompson and Kevin Love nearing returns to full health. For now though, Chriss is reasonably priced. The revenge against Phoenix is just a shot of Makers Mark in the Coke.

Al Farouq-Aminu and DeMarre Carroll are both in really good spots here. As far as that goes, so is Jake Layman as long as he continues playing like he is. I don’t see a really good reason to go away from Chriss here based on the guaranteed minutes.

My pick: Chriss(PF)

INDIANAPOLIS, IN – JANUARY 17: Joel Embiid #21 of the Philadelphia 76ers shoots the ball against the Indiana Pacers at Bankers Life Fieldhouse on January 17, 2019 in Indianapolis, Indiana. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Centers:

Best Bets:

Joel Embiid destroyed the Heat for 64 DraftKings points in the first meeting. You can ignore that red number beside his name. Those don’t apply to Embiid.

Oh man, Jusuf Nurkic is playing the Nets. Lock and load! There is no word on if Enes Kanter is going to play or not yet. Keep an eye on this situation. Even though, Nurkic is one to put in multiple lineups.