The DraftKings PGA: 2019 WGC Mexico Picks and Analysis

MEXICO CITY, MEXICO – MARCH 04: Tyrrell Hatton of England plays a tee shot during the final round of World Golf Championships-Mexico Championship at Club De Golf Chapultepec on March 4, 2018 in Mexico City, Mexico. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images) DraftKIngs PGA /

DraftKings PGA: 2019 WGC Mexico Picks and Analysis

I love the Genesis Open, but that was terrible. Congrats to JB Holmes for battling through a rain-soaked course. That was a typical JB Holmes victory. Play was slow as molasses, course was sloppy, and the Poa greens were slow as well, you know. Justin Thomas is playing some of the best golf of anyone on the PGA Tour, and he still could not close the Genesis Open out. He will get another chance this week at the WGC Mexico.

The Tour begins its trek East this week, traveling from California to Mexico City. Club de Golf Chapultepec has hosted the tournament only 2 times. Its long (7,330 yards), but plays short due to the 7K foot elevation. The comparisons to the Genesis Open will be aplenty this week. Besides the elevation, the numbers look very similar. The yardage is similar, its a par 71, the rough is kikuyu, the greens are poa, and the field is very strong.

The 2018 edition of the WGC Mexico saw Phil Mickelson beat Justin Thomas in a playoff. Phil finished at -18. Dustin Johnson captured the 2017 title, shooting a -14, winning the tournament by 1 stroke over Tommy Fleetwood.

Oddly enough, this course seems to favor golfers who flight their irons high on approach. Follow me on twitter @MystreryMain if you want those stats. Around the green and Ball-striking are two other stats that make a lot of sense for this course. Additionally, since it is a no cut event, DK scoring is of utmost importance.

Key Stats

DraftKings Scoring Gained

Approach Gained

Ball-Striking Gained

Fairways Gained

Around the green Gained

Poa Gained

MEXICO CITY, MEXICO – MARCH 04: Phil Mickelson poses with the Gene Sarazen Cup after winning the World Golf Championships-Mexico Championship on a playoff hole at Club De Golf Chapultepec on March 4, 2018 in Mexico City, Mexico. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images) /

DraftKings PGA – WGC Mexico Picks

11,800 Justin Thomas

The guy is striking the ball so pure right now it seems impossible to fade him. The price scares me, but that may mean lower ownership. He should have closed out the Genesis, but he didn’t. He is playing great golf and seems to be on the cusp of another victory. Why cant it be at a course that he held a 54-hole lead in 2017 and lost in a playoff in 2018?

9,300 Phil Mickelson

Phil is the number 2 golfer in my model behind Justin Thomas. Is it a coincidence that these two finished 1-2 in the 2018 edition? Sound to me like my model is spot on. Phil loves these California-like golf conditions. The Poa greens, the kikuyu grass, the small greens that require high ball-flight and superb around-the-green play. This course sounds like a Phil week for me.

8,000 Sergio Garcia

Garcia has played 3 events so far this year. He finished T3 in Dubai, was disqualified from Saudi Arabia, and finished T37 at the Genesis. Garcia played really sound golf at the Genesis, rebounding from a 4-over opening round. Sergio has played well at this event, finishing T7 last year when he was struggling to find his game. Sergio checks a lot of boxes this week, being an excellent ball-striker who hits those approaches high and tight.

MEXICO CITY, MEXICO – MARCH 03: A general view of signage on the 10th tee during the third round of World Golf Championships-Mexico Championship at Club de Golf Chapultepec on March 3, 2018 in Mexico City, Mexico. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /

DraftKings PGA – WGC Mexico Values

8,300 Webb Simpson

Webb is another golfer who has not played a lot of 2019 golf. I cannot overlook his upside. In 4 starts this season, Webb has 4 top 20’s. In my model, Webb ranks 1st in approach, 7th in around-the-green, and 15th in putting.

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This course is not the typical tract that Webb excels on, but I can make an exception. Webb will undoubtedly go overlooked, sub-10%, and the price is nowhere near outrageous. I will pivot off the chalk and take a way too cheap Webb Simpson.

7,100 Chez Reavie

Chez is going to be overlooked this week. He missed the cut at the Genesis, he finished T52 here last year, and he is sandwiched between 2 class golfers in Noren and Stenson. Chez is a tremendous DK scorer, he is a solid ball striker (15th in PGA this year), his putting and scrambling are good enough to compete at this course. At sub-5% ownership I will be heavily overweight on Chez.

7,100 Alex Noren

Noren is just a golfer I do not want to fade this week. He is too cheap for how good of a golfer he really is. I also love that he has played this course twice before, finishing T55 in 2017 and T14 in 2018. The Swede has not played a lot of golf so far in 2019, but his last time out at The Waste Management, he gained 2.5 strokes against the field on approach. With this guy’s short game, approach numbers that solid make him an easy play at this price tag.

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Check out more PGA and NFL articles by the author and make sure to follow @Mystery_Main for up-to-date injuries, withdrawals, and ownership projections up until the tournament. Also, follow @FantasyCPR for your daily fantasy fix.