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NCAA Basketball Best Bets To Win – Wednesday February 20

By John Fazio

PORTLAND, OR - MARCH 21: Jeremy Pargo #2 of the Gonzaga Bulldogs goes up for a shot over Sergio Kerusch #1 of the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers in the second half during the second round of the NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament at the Rose Garden on March 21, 2009 in Portland, Oregon. (Photo by Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images)
PORTLAND, OR - MARCH 21: Jeremy Pargo #2 of the Gonzaga Bulldogs goes up for a shot over Sergio Kerusch #1 of the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers in the second half during the second round of the NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament at the Rose Garden on March 21, 2009 in Portland, Oregon. (Photo by Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images) /
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PHILADELPHIA, PA – FEBRUARY 03: Collin Gillespie #2 of the Villanova Wildcats reacts against the Georgetown Hoyas in the second half at the Wells Fargo Center on February 3, 2019 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Villanova defeated Georgetown 77-65. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images) NCAA basketball best bets /

Good day and greetings from your NCAA basketball best bets to win host and value gambler.  I’ve identified 7 games I will be playing and will pass what I see on to you.

For those seeing this for the first time, I will be giving NCAA basketball best bets for the upcoming days games having written this article the night before. The lines I quote are the live lines at the time of writing.

Lines are very important and are key to the value plays.  On average, 1 out of every 14 games moving at least 1 1/2 points from the opening number will land (the final score will be within the line move) so we want to make sure to get the proper number.

Saturday unfortunately the overall plays went 3-7, making the overall record 74-60-2.  Hopefully today returns to good form.  All times Eastern, here we go with our NCAA basketball best bets to win:

Georgetown +6  versus  Villanova, 6:30 pm
This is the smallest favorite Villanova has been over GT since 2015.  Villanova has covered their last 8 of 10 games and also won and covered the last 4 in the series, but now GT has their best opportunity to cover if not surprise with an outright win.

Southern Illinois PK  versus  Valparaiso, 8 pm
The Salukis are one of those teams that play better (cover more) on the road than at home.  They are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 away games and face a team that is 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games.

Arkansas + 12 1/2  versus  Auburn, 8:30 pm
This line is too high for a rivalry game.  Arkansas has not been faring well lately ATS but still should have enough to hang with Auburn here.  The last time Arkansas was a 10+ point away dog was at LSU 5 games ago where they won outright.

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NCAA Basketball Best Bets To Win – Tar Heels Cover

North Carolina +9  versus  Duke, 9 pm
In the biggest game and the strongest rivalry of the season, North Carolina heads into Duke carrying some statistical edges with them.

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The road team is 17-7 in this series and the Tar Heels are 15-6 ATS last 21 at Duke, so the away factor is not a big consideration here – and it’s not just at Duke where North Carolina rises up.  They are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 away games overall and 5-0 facing a team with a home winning percentage of greater than 60%.

The ‘under’ also has a lot of trends in this matchup which also helps the dog.  The lower the score, the greater the chance for a cover in games around a 10 point spread.

Of note on the injury front, star 6th man Nassir Little is ready to go for North Carolina.  He was held out of the 2nd half against Wake Forest 4 days ago, but NC was winning by a large margin and did not need his services, eventually taking the game 95-57.

St John’s +1  versus  Providence, 8:30 pm
This line opened St John’s the favorite and has swung to the other side, but I think the original line is right and the Red Storm should win.  They are 5-1 in the last 6 games against Big East opposition while Providence is the opposite.  The power rating has St John’s by 3, and I don’t see any injuries to warrant a play on the home team.

San Jose St +10  versus  Colorado St, 10 pm
CSU has dominated in the head to head series, winning and covering the last 5 in a row.  However, they are faltering lately, losing their last 3 games ATS while SJSU has made a habit of covering large spreads, winning their last 4 home games ATS.

San Diego St +8  versus  Nevada, 11 pm
This is a battle of 2 very good teams, both in outright records and ATS.  Nevada is 24-1, is ranked #6 in the country and should garner most of the public attention.  As such I would not be surprised if the line moved higher during the day.

San Diego St, however, is no slouch and should hang tough in this spot at home.  Look for a competitive game with an outside shot at an upset.

That’s it for today.

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Good Luck To Us!