Fansided

The Week in Stats: The decline of Luis Suarez

By Warren Pegg

09 Luis Suarez from Uruguay of FC Barcelona defended by 33 D'Ambrosio Italy of FC Internazionale Milano during the UEFA Champions League match between FC Barcelona v FC Internazionale Milano at Camp Nou Stadium, in Barcelona on 24 of October, 2018. (Photo by Xavier Bonilla/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
09 Luis Suarez from Uruguay of FC Barcelona defended by 33 D'Ambrosio Italy of FC Internazionale Milano during the UEFA Champions League match between FC Barcelona v FC Internazionale Milano at Camp Nou Stadium, in Barcelona on 24 of October, 2018. (Photo by Xavier Bonilla/NurPhoto via Getty Images) /
facebooktwitterreddit

Many Barcelona fans are concerned about the form of Luis Suarez, and it seems they might have good reason to be.

Barcelona supporters continue to be far less happy than you might expect, given that their team coasted through the Champions League group stages and currently sit seven points clear at the top of La Liga, nine points above arch rivals Real Madrid.

One of their regular gripes relates to the form of Luis Suarez. These weren’t helped when he came off the bench on the hour mark against Real Valladolid on Saturday, as Suarez proceeded to put in one of those performances when it looks like he hasn’t slept in a week.

Although Suarez’s side would have won convincingly had it not been for the heroics of ex-Barca keeper Jordi Masip, a comparison between the Uruguayan’s top-line stats from this term and the same point last season suggests that his form has dipped.

Suarez’s shots/90, shots on target/90 and xG/90 are all slightly down, but only by a negligible degree. So in terms of his general play, if there’s a decline here, it certainly doesn’t seem to be a sudden one.
Suarez’s shots/90, shots on target/90 and xG/90 are all slightly down, but only by a negligible degree. So in terms of his general play, if there’s a decline here, it certainly doesn’t seem to be a sudden one. /

Nonetheless, there are marked differences in two areas. Most importantly, Suarez’s non-penalty goals/90 have dropped from 0.81 to 0.56, which is a fall of more than 30 percent.

Secondly, although the amount of chances that Suarez is creating per 90 has risen from 1.43 to 1.68, the quality of those chances as measured by expected assists (xA) has plummeted by almost half from 0.29 xA/90 to 0.16 xA/90.

This means that with regards to both the quality of the scoring opportunities that Suarez is being presented with and the quality of the chances he’s making for his teammates, there’s been a conspicuous decline since this time last season.

Two things are also immediately clear from comparing Suarez’s shot maps for the first 24 games of the past two La Liga seasons: He’s taking far more shots from outside the box this term, and a greater proportion of those long-range efforts are failing to trouble the goalkeeper.

Next. The Week in Stats: Messi continues to defy logic. dark

A matter of timing

Staying in La Liga, we’ll take a look at which periods of matches teams are creating and conceding the greatest proportion of their chances in. On average this season, sides are producing 42.65 percent of their xG in the first halves of games and 57.35 percent after the break.

Bilbao and Getafe are the only clubs to have created more than 50 percent of their xG during the opening 45 minutes of matches.

Moving on to expected goals against (xGA) — in other words, when teams’ opponents are creating chances — that same Bilbao side are conceding a remarkable 72.3 percent of their xGA in the second halves of games.

The other standout figure here is for Atletico Madrid, who are allowing 68.98 percent of their xGA in the closing 45 minutes of matches.

In terms of La Liga teams who are clearly set up to start on the front foot, Real Sociedad,              Getafe and Eibar all create more than 20 percent of their total xG in the opening 15 minutes of games.

Finally, Bilbao, Leganes and Alaves tend to fall apart defensively as the final whistle approaches, with all three conceding in excess of 30 percent of their xGA in the closing quarter-hours of matches.

Home/La Liga